E.U: Leave or Stay? Your thoughts.

If I were Scottish I would have voted no in the first independence referendum. I wouldn't now.

I still want them to remain part of the union but for selfish reasons.

 

When has Berlin ever told the UK what to do?

 

I can't see that happening as they'd probably receive funding from the EU much like Poland does now.

That's why she's calling for a referendum before we leave the EU, theoretically if they left the UK before the UK left the EU they'd remain an EU member, at least I'm guessing that's her intention.

The two are worlds apart, on the scale of independence being part of the UK is way down there while being an EU member allows you to retain your sovereignty despite all those claims during the referendum that we lost it by being part of the EU, that was something the government admitted in the Brexit white paper, that the UK government has always been sovereign.

 

in indyref2 - what will Scotland's bill be for leaving?

 

I thought the UK legal team decided that there's no legal obligation to pay?

 

Except that wouldn't happen:

Assuming both were achieved in the shortest possible time frame [~2 years in both cases]:

UK Leaves EU ~April 2019 [Based on the supposed march 27th A50 trigger]
Scotland would leave the UK ~September 2020 [Based on the earliest proposed referendum date of 'Autumn 2018' and assuming the process started immidiately]

 

So the Lords amendment 1 - to guarantee the rights of EU citizens - has just been voted down and they're voting on amendment 2 now (the right to a meaningful vote on the outcome of negotiations).

And.... Amendment 2 has just been voted down.

Apparently it's not likely that the Lords will disagree with the vote, so we're back where we started: if we don't get a deal then tough titty

 

That's one of the downsides of being a smaller nation in union with a larger nation when the time comes to vote.

 

From what Sturgeon said she wants to hold a referendum between Autumn 2018 and Spring 2019 so well before the UK expects to exit, although rumors suggest the UK government is planning to make a pigs ear of the negotiations so it can just crash out within 6 months.

Where are you getting that it would take 2 years for Scotland to leave the UK, wouldn't it happen the day after a vote?

 

Exactly. This is the contradiction at the heart of the SNP's policy: They want Scotland to leave the Union and be free of Westminster, but to be subjugated to the undemocratic institutions of the EU. This is why a good many SNP voters want Scotland to leave the Union, and NOT join the EU.

 

She doesn't have to explain any of that, she just needs a catchy slogan William Wallace style and to make the rest up.

 

Yeah, and the Scots are now asking for the right to be able to say that they don't like this arrangement any more - just like we did with the EU referendum last year.

But that's OK if that's the way the vote goes. Personally I think an independent Scotland would need the EU, but I'm not Scottish so I don't get to have a say in that.

Hey it worked for Brexit, didn't it?

 

Exactly just needs to pick something the Scottish hate and use it as a scapegoat.

 

Except that the EU is demonstrably more democratic than the UK.

 

Most of my Scottish friends have already said they will vote against it if given a option, there jobs are based on staying in the UK not leaving it. ( Sky tv 2 of them) 2 ship builders where the new aircraft carriers are been built.

And no if Scotland voted leave it would take a similar time frame to sort out the split in different areas, the amount they would owe the rest of the UK similar to the EU, trade deals / border controls, Armed forces / nuclear weapons, NHS Uni stuff list goes on and on.

EU leaders have already said multiple times there is no quick entry for a independent Scotland. They would be forced into the same terms as any new member state. 4 years of matching the requirements including GDP 3%. They are at 12% at last check.

Minimum turn around is at least 5 years is what most are estimates. So they leave 2020 by 2025 they can apply assuming they meet the terms

Spain France Italy want a hard a break as possible to stop there own problems.

 

I think that position might well change - hmmmm I think the bill might end up being £50 billion....

 

How come I suddenly get an image of:



I expect that there will be some haggling around the final amount. Probably it will end up being high enough so the EU can claim it as a victory and low enough for the UK to do the same. But there will of course has to be a settlement --the UK has to look like a country that will honour its debts --important if it wants to strike trade deals with the EU and rest of the world.

 

2015/2016 Scotland were £15 billion over budget , how the heck they can keep all the freebies and spending going is anyone business. Whiskey and fishy duo exports wont cover that and the oil receipts are pretty much 0 and will be whilst the Saudi`s play economical war with everyone else

 

Well, Scotland could always take a page from India's playbook and argue that as a nation formerly conquered by England a few times on and off, it is owed reparations (I know, I know, the final union in 1707 was voluntary).

 

Except that Scottish nobles sold out (for more land in England) so that wouldn't work - this isn't a Mel Gibson movie