News Xbox 360 shortage conspiracy

[The_Pope]

http://www.bit-tech.net/news/2005/11..._360_shortage/

[Firehed]

One of the best conspiracy theories that I've read in a good while. And considering the requirements Microsoft imposed regarding initial sales, preprinting Sold Out signs, and whatnot, I wouldn't even call it a theory. Maybe not a conspiracy either, just one of the more prominent displays of Microsoft's self-founded religion, assholism.

Glad I could care less about its mere existance, let alone have any interest in getting one. Though I'm sure to hear about the stupid thing non-stop at school (it would be FAR too logical to discuss the classes we're in at the time).

[The_Pope]

To their credit, Microsoft did say that they wanted to launch worldwide this Christmas and have some level of shortage in all territories, rather than launch only in the US and delay Japan / Europe to Q1 2006. However, based on these reports, it seems supply might be well short of demand pretty much everywhere.

It kinda reminds me of South Park Episode 506: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cartmanland

"Welcome to Cartmanland... and the best part is... YOU CAN'T COME!"

[Lucidity]

Do you really think they would just purposefully not make or distribute enough units? I think this idea is quite mad to be honest. A more sensible look at the situation could lead you to a very different conclusion. Ever think they are trying to make the best of a bad situation?

Suppose that MS wanted to make X units by the 22nd, but they failed to, so they prepare for shortages by acting like it is selling very well, in hopes to raise hype, and meet that with enough units for all by Christmas time. Since it isn't plausible to delay the Japan launch, and they want to do well their, more consoles could be making their way overseas.

I would also like to add, that you are talking about game only retail stores. What about Best Buy, Target, and Wally World? You are reaching more consumers through these outlets, then you would with Gamestop. Sure you maybe upsetting a more hardcore market, but pleasing the average consumer is what you are going for on a global scale.

[DanMan2CooL]

with the release of the PSP, my first thought was head to the mall, i went and stopped at

EBGAMES - SOLD OUT
GAMESTOP - SOLD OUT

basically any place that WOULD sell it, was sold out, frustrated and it being the first day the PSP was released... i took a trip to walmart....

and as luck may have it they had about 20 systems still for sale


the figures everyone has been rumoring about have been revolved around these high gaming retail stores, which is the main place people go for debating games etc

MY PLAN:
wether or not i need to, just to be one of the first to get it in my town, i will be staying in line at walmart at 830PM (untill release)

store closing hours: 10:00 PM
store re-opening hours for xbox: 12:00 PM

figuring the line to start around 8-9... i will arrive at 6 PM to suspect the store, and get some mcdonalds of course, i will have my laptop charged, as well as my PSP and my car will be parked within sight of the front door, when i see ONE person line up, i shall jump behind them

and well see you on the 22nd guys and ill let u know how it goes

[Fod]

^^^^
OMG! that's the saddest thing ive ever seen since i queued up outside HMV for a DS

(free game and i had to be up early anyway. 45mins earlier wake up for a free game, worth it IMHO)

[The_Pope]

Do you really think they would just purposefully not make or distribute enough units?

No. Having said that, there is a quote I found in my research for this story (and I now can't find the link) which was that Microsoft will NOT be increasing their manufacturing capacity to meet rapid Day One demand.

UPDATE: http://www.itnews.com.au/newsstory.a...&src=site-marq

There is no denying they are under incredible pressure because of the Thanksgiving Holiday shopping period - they HAVE to ship on that day, or they'd be in BIG trouble. So while I don't think they have deliberately engineered any shortages, they *could* ramp up production, but have said they won't.

It was exactly the same for PSP. The bottom line is that no company ever went broke from producing too few consoles. However, get the forecasting wrong and have a load of unwanted stock from a flop launch, and that would cause serious financial problems even for a company like Sony (and that was before their current financial woes were revealed).

[The_Pope]

Here's a question you guys can have fun answering.

Which would be the lesser of two evils: launch in US only, with no shortages, and launch in March 2006 for everyone else, again, no shortages...

OR

Launch everywhere simultaneously and have worldwide shortages (what we have now)

I guess it depends on whether these shortages actually turn out to be true. If they do, especially going by the Amazon pre-order disclaimer, then the UK launch really is 2006 anyway. So why not just avoid all the disappointment and launch then, rather than attempt to launch on 2nd December only to have zero stock?

Should certainly make for some entertaining reading in each territory as reports come in on stock: plentiful or scarce.

[Kevo]

There just doing what Sony has always done. Forcing a shortage in the first few weeks creates panic buying for Christmas and more importantly free press.

You can see the headlines now "Xbox360 sold out worldwide!! Wow!!" when in fact the PS2 still out sold it.

[HandMadeAndroid]

Maybe they could send thunderbirds to deliver them from tracy island

[FredsFriend]

Doesn't really bother me much, i'll be waiting till probably around April anyway for one of the first price cuts

[The_Pope]

You can see the headlines now "Xbox360 sold out worldwide!! Wow!!" when in fact the PS2 still out sold it.

That headline is the conspiracy theory, but you raise a very valid point, Kevo - how will it stack up against PS2 sales this Christmas? You'd think anyone who wanted a PS2 would own one by now, but PS2 still regularly outsells Xbox by like 10 to 1 in the UK (from memory - recent figures are probably different).

Equally interesting will be sales of Xbox 1 during this period - will it suddenly drop off a cliff? How many parents will mistakenly buy an Xbox 1 instead of an Xbox 360 if the latter isn't in stock? Does anyone still lust after a Gamecube??

[Bindibadgi]

Originally Posted by The_Pope

Does anyone still lust after a Gamecube??

I want to say "hell yea" but in the last year there's only 2 games ive actually wanted to play on it. Next year there will be only one. Ninty in the EU sucks.

[Firehed]

What happens if/when this backfires - everyone who couldn't get one launch day finds out the console sucks, and MS have just gone and lost all those sales they could have had by making them more available initially...

I doubt that'll be the case, but anything that burns a hole in microsoft's very deep pockets is something for me to hope for.

[Abom]

Not sure why all the hussle on the day of launch, just like every console I've ever bought I put $50 bucks down at gamestop to reserve the xbox 360 so I dont have to fight the mob heh

[blackerthanblack]

Considering that these things are sold at a loss, I can see why companies don't want to plough more money in to up production, since every business knows that inventory costs money. That's bad enough when you're making a profit from it when it sells, but it would be worse when you're only recouping part of the costs.

[Mattt]

anyone watch the BBC 2 "microsofts big games gamble" program about the runup to the 360 release, friday last week?

was very interesting had lots of facts and figures and was fairly uptodate. and the microsoft people were very truthful about the problems they were facing.

one of the main ones was transport, they have the consoles in significant numbers however they are abord ships that will probrably not be at there distinations for the launch date, so they were trying to find alternative means of transport, such as flying consoles to stratigic locations/retailers for release, however this ofcourse is very costly which is the reason for limited numbers.

which is probrably the reason for them telling the stores there will only be limited numbers on release and telling them how to prepare.

so i think the conspircay is just them trying to prep the retailers for the lack of consoles. no big evil master plan.

[Kevo]

Remember that Microsoft and Game had a little fall out so Microsoft cut there allocation.

[SGPSupraman]

Originally Posted by Abom

Not sure why all the hussle on the day of launch, just like every console I've ever bought I put $50 bucks down at gamestop to reserve the xbox 360 so I dont have to fight the mob heh

Abom, you could be like me reserved it back in the first of June, no price on the system at all yet and Gamestop is telling me I will not get a unit on launch day

So sometimes it's not that simple. I am going to try Walmart on Monday night, Super Walmart is open 24 X 7. otherwise I am going to try a larger local Chain on Tuesday 60 miles away.

[I_Slider_I]

My guess is they ran the numbers and they can only produce so many units by christmas of '05. If they were to produce more units it would involve rushing orders or buying up more poduction capacity, which would in tern nessesitate more sales in the future or a higher price.

Obviously they want to sell as many of these things as they can but they also want to sell them for as high of a price as they can, and hopefully be the talk of the town around christmas time.

Edit:
Having XBox's on ships in water somewhere and not being able to get them to their destination sounds like a strange story. Shipping times are fairly standard, and it would be strange to have not factored in a simple thing like shipping into your plan. Unless they decided to go with some discount shipping provider that runs a gong show, in order to save a few dollars on shipping. Why do people always decide to cheap out?