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Old 18th Apr 2017, 13:18   #6901
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Oh lol - just had an email asking would I also work on june 8th election
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Old 18th Apr 2017, 15:51   #6902
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She is 20 points ahead of the only opposition , so her power play is a `Thatcher in `83` - a huge majority of right wing *neo liberal* Conservatives, giving her a mandate as she had only 165 people vote for her to lead the party, now she needs millions to say `yes` to her to lead the country after Cameron ran away.

And given the voices recently - I think she will do it, the BBC are already slating Corbyn , even though he is trying to push Labour values in every interview.
Theresa May is currently in the tricky position of having to please hard Brexiteers while not driving the country off a cliff. The only way she can solve this conundrum is by having a sufficiently large majority so that she can aim for workable compromises without having to keep the hard Brexit minority on side (the majority of Tory MPs being Remainers). UKIP is pretty much dead so she doesn't have to worry about them anymore.

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Shouldn't that be the other way around? If the Conservatives increase their majority then it give the go-ahead for a hard Brexit, if they lose seats then she'd have to move away from that extreme.
If the Conservatives get a comfortable majority, May can pursue whatever Brexit she wants --one that is economically sensible and not driven by hard-core Brexiteer ideology. If she loses seats, that minority becomes more important to keep on side.
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Old 18th Apr 2017, 16:54   #6903
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On that we're going to have to disagree as i think if May gains seats she'll see it as confirmation or agreement from the public on her hard line Brexit attitude, if she loses seats then it's a signal the public don't agree with her view on Brexit, well unless she loses voter share to UKIP.

Going from hard to soft IMO it goes UKIP, Con, Lab, Lib-Dem, and depending on how the voter share/seats pan out would be a signal of what sort of Brexit the public wants.

You can already see from her rhetoric that's how she's couching it, the Brexit she's pursuing is the Brexit the public wants but she's being prevented from carrying it out by the unelected lords and a bunch of undemocratic MPs, elect me with a larger majority and that gives me the authority to carry out the Brexit i want.

It's almost like we're getting a 2nd referendum.

EDIT: That the media and probably large proportions of the public will treat this as second EU referendum, or vote of the type of Brexit, is a real shame IMO as things like the NHS, schools, housing, police, and the welfare system will probably take a back seat or be ignored.

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Old 18th Apr 2017, 16:59   #6904
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Theresa May is currently in the tricky position of having to please hard Brexiteers while not driving the country off a cliff.
Those hard brexiters in her own party will be the only people left with a voice to criticize her if the conservatives win the election which is near certain to happen.
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Old 18th Apr 2017, 17:17   #6905
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Originally Posted by Nexxo View Post
Theresa May is currently in the tricky position of having to please hard Brexiteers while not driving the country off a cliff. The only way she can solve this conundrum is by having a sufficiently large majority so that she can aim for workable compromises without having to keep the hard Brexit minority on side (the majority of Tory MPs being Remainers). UKIP is pretty much dead so she doesn't have to worry about them anymore.



If the Conservatives get a comfortable majority, May can pursue whatever Brexit she wants --one that is economically sensible and not driven by hard-core Brexiteer ideology. If she loses seats, that minority becomes more important to keep on side.
So will you be tactically voting Conservative then Nexxo?
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Old 18th Apr 2017, 17:21   #6906
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On that we're going to have to disagree as i think if May gains seats she'll see it as confirmation or agreement from the public on her hard line Brexit attitude, if she loses seats then it's a signal the public don't agree with her view on Brexit, well unless she loses voter share to UKIP.
I think that her election campaigning is going to show which type of Brexit she seeks endorsement for. It's going to be interesting to see what pitch she will take...

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Those hard brexiters in her own party will be the only people left with a voice to criticize her if the conservatives win the election which is near certain to happen.
If she wins a comfortable majority on a softer Brexit, those voices will become much less important to her.

It will all show in how the election campaign is pitched. People may be a bit more wary following the EU Referendum about what promises are made... Hard or Soft Brexit, if she promises unicorns, she will be expected to deliver. It won't matter if she later says: "Look, you voted for this" if serious economic pain sets in. So she better consider which version of Brexit is more likely to enable her to fulfill her promises.

The whole thing may of course blow up in her face like the EU Referendum did in Cameron's.
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Old 18th Apr 2017, 17:23   #6907
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So will you be tactically voting Conservative then Nexxo?
I'm a bargaining card EU immigrant. Can't vote.
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Old 18th Apr 2017, 17:33   #6908
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I think that her election campaigning is going to show which type of Brexit she seeks endorsement for. It's going to be interesting to see what pitch she will take...
You see another U-turn coming, Mrs May must be getting awfully dizzy.
It's possible but so far all her rhetoric seem to point towards an extreme vision of leaving the EU.
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Old 18th Apr 2017, 18:17   #6909
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I think you are misquoting IDS in regards to the lords , he is popping up and blaming them for everything `liberal peers blocking brexit` etc etc
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Old 18th Apr 2017, 19:18   #6910
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I maybe mistaken but didn't Mrs May also say the lords were attempting to make life difficult, block it, or whatever.
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Old 18th Apr 2017, 19:30   #6911
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If she wins a comfortable majority on a softer Brexit, those voices will become much less important to her.
I wouldn't be that optimistic.

The softer brexit option is already occupied by the Labour propaganda, so unless she wants her propaganda to be same as the one from Labour she has to either stick to the strategy she used so far (be as vague as possible) or promote a hard brexit.
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Old 18th Apr 2017, 20:06   #6912
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The EEA option is being touted by the LibDems
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Old 18th Apr 2017, 20:15   #6913
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So... the woman who said the timing wrong for a second Scottish indy referendum claiming the UK doesn't need the uncertainty it would bring... Has announced plans for a General Election and all the uncertainty that brings...

I'd probably lol myself to death if she fails to get the required bill through parliament and is knocked back by the fixed-term parliament act.
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Old 18th Apr 2017, 20:16   #6914
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So... the woman who said the timing wrong for a second Scottish indy referendum claiming the UK doesn't need the uncertainty it would bring... Has announced plans for a General Election and all the uncertainty that brings...

I'd probably lol myself to death if she fails to get the required bill through parliament and is knocked back by the fixed-term parliament act.


I approve
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Old 18th Apr 2017, 20:21   #6915
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I'll bring the marshmallows.

Having just read her statement, she mentions how without this snap election, the next election campaign would fall just at the most tricky stage of final Brexit negotiations. I guess she worries that the impending negotiation outcomes may undermine the Tory campaign. I wonder what outcome she is expecting...
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Old 18th Apr 2017, 21:25   #6916
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She`s called it as, like Thatcher in 1983, she believes she will get a huge majority to do what she wants. The media have spent long enough attacking Corbyn and the *loony left* even if his narrative makes sense, Farron is , well , who? So that leaves no one.
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Old 18th Apr 2017, 21:36   #6917
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The media have spent long enough attacking Corbyn and the *loony left* even if his narrative makes sense
I'm afraid that if they want to attack Corbyn all they have to do is replay his speeches and publicise his policies. The electorate in this country haven't ever voted for the hard left.

Only three Labour leaders have won a majority: Attlee, Wilson and Blair. Corbyn is way to the left of them all.
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Old 18th Apr 2017, 22:06   #6918
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Blair took `New Labour` to the right, in fact he has been called the greatest Tory in a red coat ! Where Labour has traditionally been a centre left party (and the Conservatives a New Right party under Thatcher). Now we have the Conservatives climbing upwards towards Authoritarianism , the LibDems doing amazingly under Farron (sic) , whilst Labour have lurched (too far, imo) into the socialist side. Not because of policy but Corbyn himself , whilst his message is good , is not the right person to deliver it as his history is known.
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Old 18th Apr 2017, 22:08   #6919
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Attlee was a socialist PM and he had the force of character to deliver the answer to 4 of the 5 great evils from the Beveridge report (in fact he gave the NHS to Bevan, to try and sink him), it was the Korean war and the Austerity he brought in to pay for it which sank him and brought Churchill back.
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Old 18th Apr 2017, 22:19   #6920
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You see another U-turn coming, Mrs May must be getting awfully dizzy.
It's possible but so far all her rhetoric seem to point towards an extreme vision of leaving the EU.
One would think so, but...

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She`s called it as, like Thatcher in 1983, she believes she will get a huge majority to do what she wants.
...Maybe not. "Do what she wants" may be relative, as recent first encounters of the Brexit plan with the EU Commission have already resulted in some back pedalling. Now trade negotiations will not be happening in parallel with withdrawal discussions, there will be an 'implementation period' after 2019 during which EU rules will continue to apply, there's an admission that the UK will continue to be dependent on current levels of EU immigration and that keeping the benefits of the Single Market was an "ambition" rather than a promise. Meanwhile after 35 trips around the world Liam Fox has come back with nothing.

I think it is pretty clear that reality is dawning on the DexEU and that the government is in damage limitation mode. More compromises are likely to follow, and that is easier without having to appease a bunch of hard core Brexiteers to keep a majority.

Theresa May probably also doesn't want to be fighting an election in 2020 when the UK has just hit the 'implementation period' of Brexit and people realise that the cake was a lie.

There's also the small matter of the charges of 20 Tory MPs overspending on their byelection campaigns being examined by the CPS. Decisions on that apparently are to be made in June. Any successful prosecutions of sitting MPs could lead to election results being declared void, causing a string of byelections just as the Brexit negotiations draw to a conclusion in late 2018 or early 2019.
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