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Old 18th Apr 2017, 22:39   #6921
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It appears as though the Tories are mad for a bit of gambling
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nexxo View Post
I'll bring the marshmallows.

Having just read her statement, she mentions how without this snap election, the next election campaign would fall just at the most tricky stage of final Brexit negotiations. I guess she worries that the impending negotiation outcomes may undermine the Tory campaign. I wonder what outcome she is expecting...
In fairness that makes sense. If elections were to fall around the conclusion of negotiations (which is an assumption because I'm not going to look it up right now) it would throw a spanner in the works. People that weren't in the fray would suddenly be in it, providing guidance and decision making without the history and involvement in the process up until that time. Likewise, those with a reasonable knowledge of what is going on might also be lost due to election results. A change in government would provide the EU with a further, significant advantage in negotiations. Whilst I'm sure this comment is left wide open for a snide retort, you can't disagree that a single government seeing the full course of an exit through is going to be better than one starting it and another finishing it.

I'm not so foolish as to think that is her only reason for calling the election though.
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Old 19th Apr 2017, 07:29   #6922
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nexxo View Post
Having just read her statement, she mentions how without this snap election, the next election campaign would fall just at the most tricky stage of final Brexit negotiations. I guess she worries that the impending negotiation outcomes may undermine the Tory campaign. I wonder what outcome she is expecting...
I call BS on her statement that the 2020 election is to close to the final brexit deal, we're meant to leave the EU in March 2019 so that would leave a full year to sort out GE campaigns.

If anything she's using that as an excuse, like you say, to allow time for the outcome of the brexit negotiations to slip from peoples minds, or she's using it as an excuse, also like you've said, to cover up how she's being held hostage because of her slim majority and Eurosceptic MPs within her own party.
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Old 19th Apr 2017, 07:36   #6923
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I suspect that 2020 is too soon for her because the UK will still be in the 'implementation period' and have not really Brexited, so the government could be accused of having failed to deliver. While in 2022 the UK will have fully left and she can hold that up as her main achievement.
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Old 19th Apr 2017, 09:03   #6924
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I don't see that myself, the March 2019 deadline is a hard deadline unless the EU agrees to extend it, fully untangling everything will take decades but March 2019 will be when we leave, there's not going to an 'implementation period' just more of a clean up the rubble phase.

Of course having an election 3 years after leaving could also work against her as by then people will probably be seeing the effects of leaving the EU, although i have my suspicions she'll be on her toes by then.
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Old 19th Apr 2017, 09:25   #6925
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The UK and EU have already been talking about a transitional agreement, which was in acknowledgement that a new trade deal would take longer than the next 1.5 years to put together. The EU set a limit of three years on it, during which period the UK would remain subject to the Four Freedoms and ECJ. Theresa May called it an "implementation period".

If the effects of leaving the EU are going to be bad, the Tories will simply blame the EU and throw themselves up as the only party who can safely navigate the UK through these difficult times ahead. The electorate will be by that time too downtrodden and preoccupied with daily survival to think straight, and will just vote again for the same government.
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Old 19th Apr 2017, 09:50   #6926
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Trade deals are a whole new ball game, we're not talking about how long it will take after we've left the EU to sort out a trade deal, maybe i missed the part where the EU said there would be an "implementation period" as all my Googling is turning up is Mrs May saying that's what she wants.
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Old 19th Apr 2017, 10:06   #6927
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Here's the EU take on a transitional period: https://www.theguardian.com/politics...nsitional-deal
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Old 19th Apr 2017, 10:27   #6928
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There's a few problem with that, not the link or what your saying, with the assumptions made by the media and Mrs May, firstly that draft resolution needs ratifying by the other 27 EU member states, secondly it only say the following on a transitional period...
Quote:
Agrees that should substantial progress be made towards a withdrawal agreement then talks could start on possible transitional arrangements on the basis of the intended
framework for the United Kingdom’s future relationship with the EU
And also..
Quote:
Believes that transitional arrangements ensuring legal certainty and continuity can only be agreed between the European Union and the United Kingdom if they contain the
right balance of rights and obligations for both parties, preserve the integrity of
European Union legal order, with the European Court of Justice responsible for settling
any legal challenges; they must also be strictly limited in time, and should not exceed
three years, and in scope as they can never be a substitute for Union membership
That's all very circumspect and no certain thing, if, and it's a big if, a transitional arrangement is agreed and it's the maximum allowed three years that would give 4 month between the end of the transitional arrangement and the next GE.
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Old 19th Apr 2017, 15:36   #6929
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522 Turkey`s voted for christmas
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Old 19th Apr 2017, 18:52   #6930
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Was over 17 million before, so what's new?
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Old 19th Apr 2017, 19:55   #6931
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I emailed Nicola sturgeon asking her to field 650 candidates if she has the balls to do it.... lets see is her office replies
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Old 19th Apr 2017, 21:39   #6932
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Corky42 View Post
There's a few problem with that, not the link or what your saying, with the assumptions made by the media and Mrs May, firstly that draft resolution needs ratifying by the other 27 EU member states, secondly it only say the following on a transitional period...

And also..

That's all very circumspect and no certain thing, if, and it's a big if, a transitional arrangement is agreed and it's the maximum allowed three years that would give 4 month between the end of the transitional arrangement and the next GE.
The fact that it has been not only mentioned by both sides but also capped by a time limit suggests to me that this is already a done deal. Neither the UK nor the EU can afford a cliff-edge Brexit (although the UK can afford it much less).

A relatively smooth exit can make Theresa May boast before the next GE that she delivered not only Brexit but also made a success of it. Whereas a GE during a transitional period --or just after a cliff-edge exit-- can be interpreted as Theresa May having failed to deliver the promised Brexit + success combo.

She is positioning herself for more power and more bargaining time. She wouln't need either if she were pursuing the hardest and quickest of Brexits.
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Old 20th Apr 2017, 07:21   #6933
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I'd say it's anything but a done deal, it's an ambition that still needs agreeing on by 27 other nations and with a transition favoring the UK more than the EU it's also somewhat of a bargaining chip, a bargaining chip that if Mrs May wants to use to look good at home is probably going to cost her.

Like has probably been mentioned before any pain the EU feels from this breakup is shared among 27 other nations, any pain the UK feels is borne solely by them and multiplied 27 times.
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Old 20th Apr 2017, 18:22   #6934
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Old 20th Apr 2017, 18:24   #6935
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If they want to go down that route , then may could likely not even bother and walk away completely.
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Old 20th Apr 2017, 19:11   #6936
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Here's what will happen...

The EU-politicians will act like little brats and no satisfactory deal will be had by either side, resulting in a standoff with no real outcome.

This will not be the fault of the UK and those who voted for a Brexit however, but it'll be the fault of the arrogant EU-politicians acting like they're superior.
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Old 20th Apr 2017, 19:37   #6937
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I think the spotlight is now on France in the short term. Events over there in the election will have major implications on how any negotiations go.
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Old 20th Apr 2017, 19:37   #6938
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If they want to go down that route , then may could likely not even bother and walk away completely.
You're assuming it'll be May in Number 10...


[I predict much consumption of headwear will occur if it isn't].
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Old 20th Apr 2017, 20:01   #6939
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I agree the bill should be priced in € but I'm not sure I agree with paying for the relocation of agencies. If we lobbied for those agencies, then I can kinda understand, but either way at most I think the cost should be split between all.
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Old 20th Apr 2017, 20:19   #6940
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You're assuming it'll be May in Number 10...


[I predict much consumption of headwear will occur if it isn't].
it will be - this is 1983 over again
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