Graphics The Polaris core could be AMD's last competitive GPU

If the numbers are correct. At 14/16nm we've reached the point where reducing transistor size doesn't reduce cost of device. (Hence development of planar full depleted SOI (FD-SOI) based solutions like GloFo 22X)

/SemiWiki (not related to AMD or GPUs specifically)

Total addressable market (TAM) for GPUs is ~$3Bn (ref: AMD's own estimate) but AMD's current market share is only ~18% and in Q315 it made ~$424M (-181M).
At the 20% marketshare stated it would bring in $600M of $3Bn TAM, which is not enough for AMD given that in Q314 it made $781M and still posted a (small) loss.
It needs to make around ~$800M to break even (ignoring that it laid off more staff recently/restructured GPU division) = ~27% marketshare.

Therefore if AMD can't claw back at least ~9% marketshare and almost double its revenue (that's just break even, not including investment in next gen) its Polaris core could be its last, as cost of developing on leading node (10nm will follow 'quick') will only increase into ~$100Ms for each GPU core, yet, it cannot avoid using a leading node otherwise it will become non-competitive overnight.

AMD has to knock it out the park in 2016.

EDIT: If 18% gives a $2.355Bn market then AMD's uphills struggle is even more challenging: 34% marketshare required to break even = AMD needs to achieve an 89% growth in GPU market this year.

 

I'm personally a little worried about their financial state. They haven't been very competitive in many years in the CPU department when it comes to higher ends of the market, and they are struggling to bring down their power consumption like NVIDIA when it comes to the GPU segment of their organisation.

I do hope that Zen offers something great for them and that they can get back into the game after many tough years. However, I do think it'll be a slow uptake if it is good and I feel that they are ultimately laying their own path to destruction in as little as two years if they don't improve their bottom lines immediately.

 

Me too, otherwise the PC market will be ****ed by sandbagging incremental tech updates, propriety software and price rises. Intel and NV will rinse it for every $ (as they already do with their respective 80+%s).

 

Fully agreed. They will have absolutely no competition and they could charge whatever they like. Unfortunately, AMD put themselves in this position when they went ahead with their controversial design that never really took off. I sincerely hope that they can pull themselves out of the enormous crater they've gotten themselves into. I guess that, during the course of 2016, we will see whether they'll succeed or whether they will close the doors for the last time.

 

pc market share is still sliding - hence the dell buy back , we already have intel trying to wring everything they can from the shrinking market

 

Read the thread title as "...could be AMD's least competitive GPU".

Hopefully it'll be competitive on both price and performance, but I have a feeling that even if it is, AMD are doomed (at least as far as enthusiast products go).

 

I certainly hope not, or i'll be going back to console gaming

I refuse to buy an Nvidia product for as long as they're in business. They are scumbags of the PC market, and only deserve to go out of business before anyone else.

It might be a case of cutting off my nose to spite my face, but I will not be supporting their shady AF business strategy.

 

I'm going to have to buy an AMD GPU in 2016 I think. I hope they are first to market because all the VR stuff is going to absolutely murder the 980.

Alternatively, it would be great to see RTG bought out by another company who are prepared to invest in them.

 

Right now both consoles run on AMD APUs. If AMD were to go out of business that only leaves Nvidia, which means we would still be in a mess. They will know they're the only company capable of producing the parts so there will be no competition there either.

IIRC AMD had to battle quite hard to win those jobs.

 

Can RTG become a company on its own? Does it have enough money?

Also, can HBM have any influence on how long AMD graphics can stay in the game?

I just hope that if AMD and/or RTG get bought out,its bought by someone who doesn't raid the company but is geniuinly interested in developing the company in a newer more refreshing direction. God knows they are enough vulture capitalists around right now.

 

Maybe if they were bought out, they'd be forced to keep the assets.

If they were to be broken up, what's stopping Nvidia being hit with Anti-trust suits from all directions?

 

I was looking at an article about Zen yesterday and one of the APUs had 16gb HBM. It looks like what could be AMD's first true HSA APU. Meaning no GPU, no ram, no VRAM, all from the one pool of HBM.

Seems AMD have plenty planned for Zen at least !

 

Enthusiasts alone will not fix AMDs market share is something many on here do not get. If RTG is brought out by Samsung or Apple it will be stripped for pattents and not make another gpu. Who else could realistically afford to buy it and keep it going with such low market share.

Zen could be the greatest CPU ever made but unless the big 5 take it on and use it in there PCs AMD will still struggle to break even. Enthusiast sector is not big enough to fix AMD. Dell and company need to take Zen on and run with it or we will not be talking about AMD a lot longer.

 

The pieces of the Grand Plan are in place, everything is ready for 3DFX's return!

 

it looks like AMD will launch with retail product around computex Taipei

also ALOT of rumours saying Pascal will be late as its not ready

 

Going to need sources on both of those claims.

 

Thought the main rumour was that both would release the low end part of the range first as the process the high end is using is not giving the yields they need.

That was also something mensioned in a post on Anandtech that the low end will likely be out before we see a fury or 980 equivalent card launch. Both could have sub £200 cards out before end of Q2.

Quick edit

That would also fit in with computex which is around June time from what I remember.

 

https://www.zauba.com/import-graphics+card/fp-hong+kong/ip-INHYD4-hs-code.html

zauba had the shipping manifest for both fury and Maxwell 6 months before they launched. both accurate.

the time frame for the 6 months says june which is computex taipei.

as for pascal

http://wccftech.com/nvidia-pascal-trouble/

 

Personally would be surprised to see a gpu bigger than 200mm this year, the boards for 300mm+ are meant to be at least 1 year away. Costs are rumoured to be insane for both.

 

Seems a bit odd as the same source you later quote for evidence of fury and Maxwell releases also says Pascal has been spotted on shipping manifests.

Having said that i have a sneaking suspicion AMD will be first to market with the new cards, not that it probably matters much as it would be jumping the gun a little to buy one or the other without seeing how things pan out.