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Old 30th Jan 2016, 15:05   #1
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Refugees into Europe (Orgin Unknown...)

Europe is going to be flooded in spring, we have seen a little of what is to come so far.





Any clear guidelines of what is going on here, what should be going on here?
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Old 30th Jan 2016, 15:53   #2
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What's the source of the video? Is the context correct? Can we verify it?
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Old 30th Jan 2016, 16:00   #3
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I have a friend whose mother lives in Berlin. About a month ago she was attacked and beaten up by these people.

And she got off lightly, with many reports of rape and stabbings.

It's becoming a real problem but is being swept under the rug for whatever reasons.
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Old 3rd Feb 2016, 12:40   #4
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I'm going to let this run for now, but the moment it gets extreme and people begin posting opinions as facts, without verifiable sources, the thread is getting locked.
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Old 3rd Feb 2016, 12:57   #5
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Without verification the video offers nothing. I have seen worse after a house party
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Old 3rd Feb 2016, 13:03   #6
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So, a fight kicks off in a camp. The danger with this kind of thing is how easy it is for interest groups to spin it for their own ends.

I have no doubt in my mind that some (probably a tiny minority) of the refugees will be thugs and criminals, but the knee-jerk press will lovingly tar every one of them with the same brush.
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Old 3rd Feb 2016, 13:24   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vault-Tec View Post
It's becoming a real problem but is being swept under the rug for whatever reasons.
A plausible future reality is that international and national authorities will not have the resources to cope with the potential millions of environmental, economic, and war/abuse-dodging migrants. The sooner the authorities give away hints of realising such a reality, the quicker things could deteriorate. The solution (or rather, the stalling tactic) therefore is to not talk about it and do what you can to segregate the poor from the privileged in a politically-correct (i.e. behind closed doors from the public) for as long as possible. Unfortunately, the bigger the balloon stretches, the bigger the bang when it pops.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Stephen Hawking of computerised-voice fame
In the last 200 years the population of our planet has grown exponentially, at a rate of 1.9 per cent per year. If it continued at this rate, with the population doubling every 40 years, by 2600 we would all be standing literally shoulder to shoulder.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill Gates of RMF-fame
The problem is that the population is growing the fastest where people are less able to deal with it. It's in the very poorest places that you're going to have a tripling in population by 2050."
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aristotle of bearded-philosopher fame
One would have thought that it was even more necessary to limit population than property…The neglect of this subject, which in existing states is so common, is a never-failing cause of poverty among the citizens; and poverty is the parent of both revolution and crime.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Isaac Asimov of whimsical-book fame
If two people live in an apartment, and there
are two bathrooms, then both have freedom of the bathroom. You can go to the bathroom
anytime you want, stay as long as you want, for whatever you need. And everyone believes in
Freedom of the Bathroom; It should be right there in the Constitution. But if you have twenty
people in the apartment and two bathrooms, then no matter how much every person believes
in Freedom of the Bathroom, there's no such thing. You have to set up times for each person,
you have to bang on the door, 'Aren't you through yet?' And so on." Right now most of the
world is living under appalling conditions. We can't possibly improve the conditions of
everyone. We can't raise the entire world to the average standard of living in the United States
because we don't have the resources and the ability to distribute well enough for that. So right
now as it is, we have condemned most of the world to a miserable, starvation level of
existence. And it will just get worse as the population continues to go up... Democracy cannot
survive overpopulation. Human dignity cannot survive it. Convenience and decency cannot
survive it. As you put more and more people onto the world, the value of life not only declines,
it disappears. It doesn't matter if someone dies. The more people there are, the less one
individual matters.
People have been making predictions about the doom of population growth for centuries. While there hasn't been an obvious collapse, I do not think the logic behind those predictions is unfounded.
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Old 3rd Feb 2016, 17:07   #8
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Old 4th Feb 2016, 00:31   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Porkins' Wingman View Post
People have been making predictions about the doom of population growth for centuries. While there hasn't been an obvious collapse, I do not think the logic behind those predictions is unfounded.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Stephen Hawking of computerised-voice fame
In the last 200 years the population of our planet has grown exponentially, at a rate of 1.9 per cent per year. If it continued at this rate, with the population doubling every 40 years, by 2600 we would all be standing literally shoulder to shoulder.
Problem with population growth is it isnt about having too many children. We have already reached "peak child" in the late 1990s at 2bn children, this is expected to remain so in the projections to the year 2100.

Population growth is not exponetial, it only appears so over a given time frame: the industrial revolution to now, as the number of children in the world has peaked the population peak will occur a century later.

The increase in the population is simply a "filling up" adult demographics as time passes and old people die off and younger people grow older. Rough numbers

__Age TP1 TP2 TP4 TP3 TP5
_0-15 2bn 2bn 2bn 2bn 2bn
15-30 2bn 2bn 2bn 2bn 2bn
30-45 1bn 2bn 2bn 2bn 2bn
45-60 1bn 1bn 2bn 2bn 2bn
_60+ 1bn 1bn 1bn 2bn 3bn*
Total 7bn 8bn 9bn 10bn 11bn

* extra 1bn in the 60+ category for longer life expectancy


The documentary below is a great eye opener to how population grows, the driving factors behind "the fertility rate" (child mortality is key) and how we will cope with it. Truth be told the future isn't as doomed as those you quote suggest. Massive progress has been made in terms of poverty and humanity's adaptability is amazing.


Peak child & How the world population will grow to 11bn by 2100 without an increase in the number of children in existence at a given time*:


*Corrected
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spreadie View Post
Umm, you might want to reword that.
oops I really should proof read . Cheers for the heads up.

Last edited by Disequilibria; 4th Feb 2016 at 15:35. Reason: formatting issue in the table
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Old 4th Feb 2016, 08:07   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Disequilibria View Post
Peak child & How the world population will grow to 11bn by 2100 without any more children born
Umm, you might want to reword that.
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Old 11th Feb 2016, 16:40   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Disequilibria View Post
Population stuff
My point was more about the social pressures created by growing numbers of people in a fixed amount of space. That Stephen Hawking quote was to illustrate (in the mind) the idea of an increasing lack of personal space, socially speaking.

That video you posted was fairly interesting, but the idea that the global population will plateau at 10-11bn is nothing new in the slightest - such estimations were around 20 years ago when I was at school. But the majority of the growth yet to come (which could add 50-60% to the current global population) is predicted to occur in less stable parts of the world.



Europe, where population numbers are stable, is relatively peaceful, while Africa, where population is growing, is increasingly less peaceful. Can we keep a lid on the African unrest as its population rises, or will it begin spilling over more and more into neighbouring continents?

It's great that that fella in the video can now afford a bike, but whether we're all getting better off or not, we can't buy more space to live in (not until we industrialise interplanetary migration anyway), so I was just postulating that in the short-term, until the global society adapts to living in those greater numbers, incidences of social unrest, instability, cross-cultural clashes, terrorism etc. are likely to increase. I don't have any evidence for that, it's just a hunch, however:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Global Peace Index Report 2015
The latest UNHCR estimates indicate that more than 50 million people are now either refugees or internally displaced because of conflict and violence, which is the highest number since the end of the Second World War
In the longer-term global society will hopefully evolve/adapt to the busier world and we'll all realise it's better for everyone if we all get along.

But do we understand this sort of stuff well enough to implement any adaptations needed while the population is still growing as quickly as it is? That video you posted seems to depend on data from the past/present, which isn't necessarily an adequate indicator for how the future will turn out.
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Old 22nd Mar 2016, 11:20   #12
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Old 20th Jun 2016, 10:48   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Porkins' Wingman View Post
My point was more about the social pressures created by growing numbers of people in a fixed amount of space. That Stephen Hawking quote was to illustrate (in the mind) the idea of an increasing lack of personal space, socially speaking.

That video you posted was fairly interesting, but the idea that the global population will plateau at 10-11bn is nothing new in the slightest - such estimations were around 20 years ago when I was at school. But the majority of the growth yet to come (which could add 50-60% to the current global population) is predicted to occur in less stable parts of the world.



Europe, where population numbers are stable, is relatively peaceful, while Africa, where population is growing, is increasingly less peaceful. Can we keep a lid on the African unrest as its population rises, or will it begin spilling over more and more into neighbouring continents?

It's great that that fella in the video can now afford a bike, but whether we're all getting better off or not, we can't buy more space to live in (not until we industrialise interplanetary migration anyway), so I was just postulating that in the short-term, until the global society adapts to living in those greater numbers, incidences of social unrest, instability, cross-cultural clashes, terrorism etc. are likely to increase. I don't have any evidence for that, it's just a hunch, however:



In the longer-term global society will hopefully evolve/adapt to the busier world and we'll all realise it's better for everyone if we all get along.

But do we understand this sort of stuff well enough to implement any adaptations needed while the population is still growing as quickly as it is? That video you posted seems to depend on data from the past/present, which isn't necessarily an adequate indicator for how the future will turn out.
Sorry to dig up a dormant thread, especially just to post a story to serve no other purpose than to boost the case of my previous post, but when I saw this article this morning, it reminded me of this thread.

This is likely to represent, in terms of absolute numbers, unprecedented human migration in the face of conflict, poverty and abuse. The dumping ground of the world is spilling over. There'll be an increasing frequency of people schooled/indoctrinated in Western rules and values being mixed with people who are much more used to volatility in their lives, hence the apparent rise in right-wing support and xenophobia.

Though, of course, whether the number of refugees as a proportion of the global population (cited as 1 in 113 in the article) is going up, down or static I don't know and won't be researching this morning. But as I said previously, it's the unstable areas of the world where population is rising fastest, and we don't seem to have an answer for making these areas stable, so it would seem logical to hypothesize that the proportion will increase, if it's not already.
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Old 20th Jun 2016, 18:26   #14
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We do have an answer for making these areas stable, we just don't like the answer. Because it would mean we'd have to, like, pay a fair price for the resources we extract from those countries to maintain our increasingly unsustainable lifestyle. Instead:
  • We will use protectionist policies and high tariffs on value added exports from developing countries to force them to adopt a monocultural agriculture from which we buy crops at a knock-down price.
  • We will support corrupt governments with "Third World Aid" and loans to get preferential access to their mineral resources.
  • We will send our EU fishing fleet all the way down to the coast of Somalia to effectively steal their fish.
  • We will engage in conflict investment in the Middle East and Africa, creating a fertile breeding ground for Al Qaeda, ISIS and Boko Haram, in a proxy war with other countries over who gets to control their oil and mineral resources.

Research shows that when standards of living in a developing country increase to the point that a child has a good likelihood of making it past its fifth year, that birth rates drop radically within a generation. When children are likely to survive, parents are more inclined to invest in the few they have rather than to have more. This of course requires a functional and prosperous economy that can invest in health care, education, public infrastructure and services.

But that is not what the Western countries are interested in. Developing countries are just resources to be exploited.
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Old 20th Jun 2016, 23:47   #15
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We will use protectionist policies and high tariffs on value added exports from developing countries to force them to adopt a monocultural agriculture from which we buy crops at a knock-down price.
I could swear thast you were saying in the other thread that protectionisim and the CAP agricultural subsidies were one of the good things about the EU.
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