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View Poll Results: Should we be EU members?
In 105 64.02%
Out 44 26.83%
Shake it all about 15 9.15%
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Old 24th Jun 2016, 19:12   #141
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Originally Posted by Nexxo View Post
Feel free to point out my nonsense below.



Depends on how the EU is going to play this.

It is quite obvious (if it wasn't before) that Vote Leave does not have a plan. It has already said that it will not invoke Article 50 just yet. I know people are thinking in terms of months, but I think that it will still not have happened in 2020. I think that whoever becomes PM will find that it is more complicated than they thought it was. That does not give them any negotiation advantage however, because while it does not do so the UK is still a full member of the EU with all the impositions that come with it --although its decision making powers will now be significantly reduced, and it has lost the deal Cameron managed to get (which was actually pretty good). So all the EU has to do is sit there and concede nothing in preliminary negotiations --while Article 50 is not invoked, it is holding all the cards anyway.

UKIP may wish to push the process, but I think it is finally dawning on the Brexit electorate that:
1. Farage is a lying toad
2. Brexit comes with an economic penalty.

Moreover the majority of the electorate (including Remainers and Leavers) in a poll indicated that they'd favour staying in the EEA. I think that they are suddenly not in a hurry either.

If the UK does pull the trigger on Article 50, it has a 2-year limit within which to negotiate a deal that most experts agree would probably take a decade. This is not only mission impossible but the time limit also means that it is a "wasting asset": as the clock ticks down Britain's bargaining position gets progressively weaker as it has to clinch some deal before the deadline lest it gets kicked into the WTO with no agreements at all. And don't underestimate what this means: not only tariffs on exports of goods, but also no export of services, and especially, no export or EU passporting of services --which is a major chunk of the UK economy.

So Britain's best alternative bet is to set up a lot of bilateral deals with other countries outside the EU to bolster its economic position before it invokes Article 50. But unfortunately, with a Brexit it also loses its main bargaining chip in trade deals with other nations, which was access to the entire EEA through the UK, as it is about to lose that eventually. And China has already demonstrated how it treats smaller economy nations.

All this guff about "being like Singapore" conveniently forgot that --apart from Singapore being an entrepot city state with a 50% immigrant population-- it also is a founder member of ASEAN, the East Asian version of the EU.

Now if the EU is wise, it will allow the UK a politically face-saving option that keeps it in at least the EEA. It would be a powerful message to other member states to see the UK, after all the noise and heat, compromising and possibly reconsidering on a Brexit, even if some concessions are made by the EU. This may mean some controls/limits on free movement which may be necessary anyway to stop the rot in the EU, but it would make quite a statement.

If the EU is dumb it will dig its heels in. This is bad for the UK, and ultimately also bad for the EU. I am inclined to think that politically this is what would happen because people basically are not wise, but I also suspect that ultimately, global business won't let it. So we'll probably get a combination of heat and noise covering up a pragmatic re-interpretation of EEA membership underneath.
QFT. I'm still appalled and bitterly annoyed by how far this bullshit got, though.
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Old 24th Jun 2016, 19:32   #142
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Free movement part of EEA is totally not negotiable, that part is going to be take it or leave. And that is what was one of the main points the leave camp had. Norway and Switzerland have even higher relative EU immigration (to their population) than UK :
http://openeurope.org.uk/intelligenc...d-switzerland/

Absolutely not a chance for point system like Australia has. Unless you jump out of EEA as well.
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Old 24th Jun 2016, 19:55   #143
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Free movement part of EEA is totally not negotiable, that part is going to be take it or leave. And that is what was one of the main points the leave camp had. Norway and Switzerland have even higher relative EU immigration (to their population) than UK :
http://openeurope.org.uk/intelligenc...d-switzerland/

Absolutely not a chance for point system like Australia has. Unless you jump out of EEA as well.
I don't think many Leavers realise that, or care. 53% of people polled (including Remainers and Leavers) wanted to stay in the EEA. And with voter's regret already kicking in, the government may actually be able to get away with it, UKIP notwithstanding.
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Old 24th Jun 2016, 20:05   #144
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I have a feeling we will aim for Australia model if we do eventually leave. Its the best model for our country. It might make it harder to on us short to medium term, But long term we will be a better country for it. Of the 4 choices I have saw listed its the one I would choose.

Might cause major recessions everywhere in the world but that will be fun to watch.

Leave and Remain both did a Fear Campaign, Remain lost.

Time to start working out what Britians future is.

Shock America and UK relationship will not change, France have already said they will keep all existing things in place even after we have gone. ( ill be shocked if france does not attempt there own vote) Thats our 2 biggest traders.

Germany is after that, Germanys car business exports alot to the uk market. Sure they could spite themselves and lose money but can not see it. Will Germany cover BMW or Mercs loses if they did?

The Canadian trade deal could work in our favour as a offer to the EU. Free trade without the issues. Thats a viable solution that most see in our favour.
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Old 24th Jun 2016, 20:10   #145
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It's funny to watch Brexiteers talk about a point-based immigration system when in fact they mean a quota-based immigration system. They can't even get their terms right.
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Old 24th Jun 2016, 20:39   #146
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Over the next weeks and months we'll begin to see what happens when idiots are allowed to break things they don't understand.
When they're done wrapping themselves in the flag (and they may well need another flag soon if the Scots go) reality will start to sink in - that or they'll find someone else to blame.

The biggest single day drop in the pound's history, before the Bank of England stepped in - and the money they'll be pumping in will far outweigh any contribution we make to the EU. And we'll have to find that money back somehow.
No foreign company can now invest in our country - not till after we've spent years of negotiations.
The money lost will never be regained.
What happens when you ignore the, almost unheard of, unanimous opinion of the worlds most respected economic experts - what do experts know? Just 'scare mongering'

All the banks Euro markets will now move.
Morgan Stanley already have plans to move 2000 staff.
The City accounts for about 13% of our total tax revenue.

I'm finding it very hard not to be livid.
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Old 24th Jun 2016, 21:02   #147
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I am just home and still can not believe this happened, just unbelievable.



Just so this is clear,

Was this vote leave purely based on the fact of the refugees/ terrorists?, that the British public wanted border control and not quotas of "origin unknowns" getting pushed in here.


Personally if I had to guess it was that night club shooting of 100 + Germany getting influxed over ran and just there being no promise any were that the endless stream of fighting age refugees would stop / not come here.


Is this correct?


Can any one recommend any online stream tonight like night time serious round table discussion , I don't have tv only you tube and streams.


thanks.
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Old 24th Jun 2016, 21:03   #148
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Morgan Stanley already have plans to move 2000 staff.
I heard this today too, but it is not true. It is way too early for investment banks to announce stuff like this.
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Old 24th Jun 2016, 22:02   #149
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I am just home and still can not believe this happened, just unbelievable.

Just so this is clear,

Was this vote leave purely based on the fact of the refugees/ terrorists?, that the British public wanted border control and not quotas of "origin unknowns" getting pushed in here.
Basically UKIP cleverly linked people's discontent caused by Austerity to the idea of unchecked EU immigration, conflating it neatly with non-EU immigration and refugees and other assorted darkies with their strange ways and their strange food (except when it comes in takeaway boxes, then it's fine). People basically voted to get the Muzzies out or because Poles were taking their jobs, housing and women (or, more accurately, doing their jobs, housing and women and annoyingly doing it better).

There was also some ranting about sovereignty and democracy which, like one's spleen, people had some vague idea was important but with no real idea of why or how.

Hours after the referendum result Google registered a massive spike in searches on:

"What does it mean to leave the EU?"
"What is the EU?"
"Which countries are in the EU?"
"What will happen now we've left the EU?"
"How many countries are in the EU?"

Which gives you an idea of how informed the vote was. Today we already see voters' regret. Too late, too late said the white rabbit.
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Old 24th Jun 2016, 22:35   #150
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I heard this today too, but it is not true. It is way too early for investment banks to announce stuff like this.
They already said that story is a lie made by press still scare mongering. And confirmed what was said above, We have not even left yet, Till that decision is officially made they will not make a decision like this.

That applys enmass across most organisations.

You create plans based on facts not guess work.

I would think most major business will wait to see what kind of deal we get if we proceed with the leave. And base there decisions on that.

The end of the world is not upon us, Money markets did not crash, Our market is up for the week by 3% to be accurate.
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Old 24th Jun 2016, 22:52   #151
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I would think most major business will wait to see what kind of deal we get if we proceed with the leave. And base there decisions on that.
Sure, they base their decisions on what will happen. But if they were planning an investment, then that is on hold. For next 2 years at least, if not cancelled at all. Good example is Airbus, while they will keep what they have in UK, they are not going to do much investment until brexit is resolved. And that is some jobs lost right there. And that will be true for most foreign investments in general.
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Old 24th Jun 2016, 23:04   #152
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Oh, and Calais wants Britain to take their border back. Say hello to the Jungle, Dover!
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Old 24th Jun 2016, 23:25   #153
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Did you read the end of that article?
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Old 24th Jun 2016, 23:30   #154
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Did you read the end of that article?
While they say that now, what would the French government prefer later ? Being friendly to a local region or to the non-EU country ? You can bet that once brexit will happen, you can bet Calais deal is gone too.
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Old 24th Jun 2016, 23:42   #155
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It's a bilateral agreement. So there is benefit to both countries. If leaving the EU causes whatever benefits France get out if it to dissappear, then yes the Jungle moves to the UK. It's a good negotiating stick for France though. Right now there's no guarantees on what will happen to it.
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Old 25th Jun 2016, 09:34   #156
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Originally Posted by Nexxo View Post
If the UK does pull the trigger on Article 50, it has a 2-year limit within which to negotiate a deal that most experts agree would probably take a decade. This is not only mission impossible but the time limit also means that it is a "wasting asset": as the clock ticks down Britain's bargaining position gets progressively weaker as it has to clinch some deal before the deadline lest it gets kicked into the WTO with no agreements at all. And don't underestimate what this means: not only tariffs on exports of goods, but also no export of services, and especially, no export or EU passporting of services --which is a major chunk of the UK economy.
Either you or i have misunderstood what Article 50 is.

AFAIK Article 50 is just the official notification of a country wanting to leave the EU, there's no deals to be had in the process as it's little more than the starting of the machine that unties the political links, the what. when, and who belongs where.
Things like the removal of UK MEPs, removal of people from the UK working for the commission, from my understanding enacting Article 50 is little more than starting the process of shutting down a regional office in a multinational corporation.

The deals part is separate from Article 50, at least that's how i understand it.

Quote:
Originally Posted by tiger-moth View Post
The biggest single day drop in the pound's history, before the Bank of England stepped in - and the money they'll be pumping in will far outweigh any contribution we make to the EU. And we'll have to find that money back somehow.
No foreign company can now invest in our country - not till after we've spent years of negotiations.
The money lost will never be regained.
What happens when you ignore the, almost unheard of, unanimous opinion of the worlds most respected economic experts - what do experts know? Just 'scare mongering'
What made me sad is that the 250bn thr BofE pumped into the economy yesterday will take 25 years of EU membership fees to pay back, and that was just one day, as with all economic down-turns, like the 08 recession, that money's going to be paid by those least able to afford it, the poorest parts of UK society are going to feel the impact more than anyone else.

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Was this vote leave purely based on the fact of the refugees/ terrorists?, that the British public wanted border control and not quotas of "origin unknowns" getting pushed in here.
The message I'm getting is that people wanted to stick it to the man.

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The end of the world is not upon us, Money markets did not crash, Our market is up for the week by 3% to be accurate.
That's to be expected when the BofE injected 250bn into the economy in a single day, lets hope they have enough reserves to keep doing that everyday for the next few years.

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Old 25th Jun 2016, 09:49   #157
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Either you or i have misunderstood what Article 50 is.
It is you, who misunderstood it.

EU clearly said that there won't be ANY negotiations before UK triggers article 50.

The only thing UK gains by delaying invoking article 50 is time to prepare the legal team, plus deciding what exit route it want to ask for.

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Old 25th Jun 2016, 09:54   #158
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Well yes, isn't that what i said, I'm guessing i didn't explain it properly.

Negotiations about trade deals are separate from Article 50, i.e first you need to start the process of unpicking your membership then once that's done you're officially out and you can start negotiations.

Basically Article 50 starts the process of unpicking things leading to an official uncoupling, once you've uncoupled your links you can then go about negotiating.

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Old 25th Jun 2016, 09:59   #159
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Trade deal with EU is part of Article 50 process. Exit of UK from EU means rewriting the trade deals, and they depend on the path UK wants to go. Going from EU to EEA is a completely different process than going from EU to no deal, or going from EU to customs union. So yes, trade deals are part of the Article 50 process. Unless you want to drop back to having no deals and lot of customs fees (WTO rules).

And UK has 2 years for all that; if there is no trade deal at 2 year mark, then UK will start to trade with EU using WTO rules (and that will hurt).

And finally, from economic perspective, every option is worse than being a member of EU. EEA option will include free movement, and every other option will kill huge part financial industry in London (they will have to move to Germany or France).
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Old 25th Jun 2016, 10:07   #160
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Location: Birmingham, UK
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Corky42 View Post
Either you or i have misunderstood what Article 50 is.

AFAIK Article 50 is just the official notification of a country wanting to leave the EU, there's no deals to be had in the process as it's little more than the starting of the machine that unties the political links, the what. when, and who belongs where.
Things like the removal of UK MEPs, removal of people from the UK working for the commission, from my understanding enacting Article 50 is little more than starting the process of shutting down a regional office in a multinational corporation.

The deals part is separate from Article 50, at least that's how i understand it.
No, you just misunderstood my post or I explained it badly (cross out as appropriate).

You're right that Article 50 concerns itself just with the withdrawal process, at the end of which two years the UK exits the EU and becomes a third country (WTO rules apply). But Vote Leave hoped that within those two years it could negotiate a new trade relationship at the same time (in a parallel process) that would become the replacement relationship as soon as the UK exits.

I think that patient civil servants explained that there is no way a new trade deal can be clinched within two years, even if the EU is very keen and cooperative (as Vote Leave likes to fantasise; Chris Grayling still believes that the UK can negotiate full access to the EEA without accepting free movement, although other Brexiteers are already publicly backpedalling on their immigration promises) which it most likely will not be. So now the plan is to engage in a lot of preliminary negotiation before invoking Article 50 to get a head start on the process. But the EU's official stance is that it won't start negotiation on anything before Article 50 is invoked. Stalemate.

And it is just dawning on them that the government actually doesn't have nearly a tenth of the experts required to lead these negotiations.

I suspect that there is a lot more going on behind the scenes however, as big business interests on both sides converge to salvage this cluster****.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Corky42 View Post
What made me sad is that the 250bn thr BofE pumped into the economy yesterday will take 25 years of EU membership fees to pay back, and that was just one day, as with all economic down-turns, like the 08 recession, that money's going to be paid by those least able to afford it, the poorest parts of UK society are going to feel the impact more than anyone else.
I'm well into the anger stage of grief. I'm a socialist at heart, always sticking up for the poor and deprived and paying my 40% taxes in the conviction that it's a civic duty to contribute to society. Now the most deprived have voted for this mess that will hurt them most because essentially they don't like people like me. Well, screw them; whatever misery they get they have called onto their own heads.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Corky42 View Post
The message I'm getting is that people wanted to stick it to the man.
Well, they better hope that the man doesn't go in dry as he bends them over.
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Last edited by Nexxo; 25th Jun 2016 at 10:14.
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