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Old 16th May 2017, 19:28   #7701
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Originally Posted by Nexxo View Post
Other news agencies have a more positive take on this and think it would make an FTA deal easier.
I think the telegraph is being a bit too optimistic...

How could there be a deal without settling the matter of commercial arbitration (and that is one of the things requiring approval from every government)?

Even if it gets settled and approved all around, best case scenario then is still that it will take a long time.

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I don't think that Theresa May is just going to walk away without a deal.
That may be the upside to it, not that she won't, but that she won't ever get the choice to, transitional deal until after she retires might be a possible outcome.
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Old 16th May 2017, 19:42   #7702
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Originally Posted by Nexxo View Post
I don't think that Theresa May is just going to walk away without a deal....

Moreover when economic hardship bites, people will blame the EU, but they will also expect the UK government to make it all better...
I can't see people expecting the government to make it better, when Labour was blamed for the global financial crisis people didn't expect the government to make it better, they expected the government to cut back on spending and to live within our means, they saw the cuts as a necessary evil brought upon them by the profligacy of a previous administration.

Personally i think our government is fairly ambivalent about how the negotiations turn out, on one side they can proclaim how great they are and what a wonderful deal they've struck, on the other they can carry on reducing the size of the state with people cheering it on.
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Old 16th May 2017, 19:54   #7703
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The people voted Brexit as a protest against austerity: political vandalism by referendum. Wait until you get a load of when their unicorn dreams don't come true. After all they have been told that if the EU is nasty, the UK can simply walk away into the WTO and it will be dandy. Their expectations have been raised too high.

If they we're prepared to give Cameron a good kicking, wait until you see what they'll dish out to May.
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Old 16th May 2017, 20:05   #7704
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You're assuming an individual MP matters, one thing I've learnt from observing politics in the UK is that parties, especially the Conservative, think nothing of sacrificing members if it's for the good of the party.

Cameron put his head on the block with the referendum to silence UKIP and May will do the same to silence the critics of Brexit.
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Old 16th May 2017, 20:22   #7705
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MP`s receive a weekly list of parliamentary votes - with the words (or similar) "Your attendance is absolutely essential" with 1 , 2 or 3 lines underneath. a 3 line whip is a strict instruction to attend and vote the way to party want you to, irrespective of your own or your constituents opinions. Rebel against a 3 line whip too often and the whip can be withdrawn which means you are no longer representing that particular party at that time.
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Old 16th May 2017, 20:43   #7706
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Quote:
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You're assuming an individual MP matters...
I think May matters to May.
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Old 16th May 2017, 20:58   #7707
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Old 16th May 2017, 20:59   #7708
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Old 16th May 2017, 21:02   #7709
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Old 16th May 2017, 21:22   #7710
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do {
speech("Strong and Stable!")
}
while (brexit != brexit || labourExists == true)
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Old 16th May 2017, 21:51   #7711
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The spin on the news from the ECJ is stunning:

Basically the ECJ have said the EU governments AND 5 regional parliaments have a say and vote in any deal(s) made, it now depends on which side of the `line` the media is on to the spin factor!

Reuters for example are saying its a deal breaker , citing Wallonia as an example of a region that can derail any agreement (its also an example of sovereignty inside the EU, but you know strong and stable)
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Old 16th May 2017, 22:04   #7712
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See, the UK can be like Singapore! Oh, wait...
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Old 17th May 2017, 07:22   #7713
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Quote:
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I think May matters to May.
Mrs May isn't the only person in the Conservative party just like Cameron, Osborn and even Mrs Thatcher wasn't, politics is a machiavellian game but if you start damaging the reputation of the party and its future electability you'd better keep one eye behind you for those knives and one eye in front for that bus.
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Old 17th May 2017, 08:10   #7714
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I think that is another reason why she won't walk without a deal. Many Tory sponsors in business who won't thank them for crashing the economy. That reputation will stick with them for decades. It will be worse than Labour being blamed for the 2008 global crisis.
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Old 17th May 2017, 08:27   #7715
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Got to love the BBC - when social media fact check them live
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Old 17th May 2017, 09:31   #7716
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nexxo View Post
I think that is another reason why she won't walk without a deal. Many Tory sponsors in business who won't thank them for crashing the economy. That reputation will stick with them for decades. It will be worse than Labour being blamed for the 2008 global crisis.
On that we're going to have to disagree as those Tory sponsors in business would, like they did after the financial crisis, will still see their wealth increasing.

Quote:
Since the financial crash in 2008, the richest 100 families in Britain have seen their combined wealth increase by at least 12.57bn**. An average increase in wealth of 151m each, or 364,052 per week.
Whereas median household income has risen by only 10 per week.

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Got to love the BBC - when social media fact check them live
Maybe I'm reading it wrong (PDF) but their funding Britain document does seem to say they plan to lower the threshold for the 45p additional rate to 80k (Top 5%) and reintroducing the 50p rate on earnings above 123k.

Is it the loss of number that they got wrong?

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Old 17th May 2017, 12:17   #7717
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Quote:
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I think that is another reason why she won't walk without a deal.
Walking away doesn't necessarily mean no deal.

It can also mean extending transitional arrangements until someone else has to sort out the mess.
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Old 17th May 2017, 12:52   #7718
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It can also mean extending transitional arrangements until someone else has to sort out the mess.
...which would be a deal.
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Old 17th May 2017, 13:13   #7719
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...which would be a deal.
One she doesn't have to admit to having made, so she can keep playing tough for the home crowd.
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Old 17th May 2017, 13:32   #7720
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Corky42 View Post

Maybe I'm reading it wrong (PDF) but their funding Britain document does seem to say they plan to lower the threshold for the 45p additional rate to 80k (Top 5%) and reintroducing the 50p rate on earnings above 123k.

Is it the loss of number that they got wrong?
People currently pay 40% between 45k and 150K.

So under those new rates, people would pay an extra 5% between 80k and 123k and an additional 5% on incomes above 123K.

So if you earn 123k, you will pay an extra 2,150 (5% of 43k).

Before: 37,900 income tax
After : 40,050 income tax

So they are one order of magnitude out.

However, I'd put this down to Hanlon's Razor: Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.
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