Blogs Will the keyboard be dead in ten years time?

could keyboards be uncommon in 10 years id think so

wires will be a thing of a past within the next 2-3 years most people already own totally wireless setups for mouse and keyboard as it is.

gamers may argue that wireless is slower but i own 2 mice 1 wired 1 not and the diffrence is un noticeable.

id expect some sort of device to replicate the mouse and keyboard in 10 years. Sort of like whats already happening in high end businesses with alot of touch keyboards on display

we already own 2 of these sorta keyboards as testers. theres no real buttons to press the keyboard is basically on to the glass pannel. Our typists speed is nigh on the same as it is on a normal one.

 

You can pry my Buckling Springs out of my cold dead hands. Ranging from '89 to '96, they are old, wired, and staying with me forever. The problem with Glass "touch" based keyboards is bottoming out. This is going to put more impact on your fingers, increase stress on the joints and fatigue. I can see them being very popular though, fashionable even. Kinda like Mac's... ;-)

 

Apparently decent wireless mouses/keyboards are just as good as wired. But for me I don't see the point. I sit at my PC, the wires don't impinge on my gaming or general usage. Also I don't have to recharge them...ever. So I will still be using wired ones in 2-3 years thanks.

If I was going to have type on a hard surface with no give, then I'd rather that holographic keyboard tech was improved.

 

Part of the problem is that most of these UI researchers are IDIOTS that are MISSING THE POINT. They come up with contrived applications and from there suppose that all input can be replaced by it if we somehow just "try harder" and "push the technology." This is why real UI research is done by people with a cognitive psychology background and not just idiots that manage to get stage time or a TED talk.

 

PRECISELY!
You never see them just typing.

In the video you see him asked, "what is the killer application for this technology", the killer application is normal data input, A.K.A. typing and it's not going to ring in your new idea, it's there to kill it.

Almost all of these ideas only tackle the mouse.

 

As a UI the ideas and technology is viable and indeed possible, but it is subject to demand and if consumers aren't demanding a new UI and are happy and content with current interfaces then things will be slow to change.

The keyboard, whether in the form it has been in since it's conception, touch screen, table top laser or any other variation will be around for as long as we have the need to enter raw data, program devices, communicate via email / sms.

I think this is a common thought that has been touched upon by many of the previous comments and has remained unchanged for the last 25 years and is unlikely to change in the next 25 years either.

 

Sorry, I didn't read through your discussions but I suddenly thought of the Theremin.
Analogue output without physical contact.

I thought I'd just add that in there. Thanks

 

I've owned and typed with a "holographic" (as someone just called it) keyboard for years now, and I can tell you that it is a technology that needs to be either improved or canned. I've gotten fairly efficient at using it for inputting to either my PDA or my laptop, but I don't use it as often as I used to because of RSI. I'm not saying that my use of that particular input method caused my RSI injuries - in fact I had them long before I ever used a laser keyboard - but it probably contributed a bit. As someone quite rightly mentioned, using touch sensitive keyboards with no tactile mechanism introduces the problem of high impact on the fingers and wrist which increases the strain put on these areas as you type, thereby increasing the risk and chances of developing RSI.

 

tbh I looked at the video and thought I could have done all he did with a little screen, a mouse and a keyboard.

The solution he had involved a huge projection system and lots of waving arms around.

The current system is just much more efficient.

 

I think there's as much chance as bog roll becoming obsolete. Next silly question.

 

A little mentioned fact is they had to take a lot of breaks in shooting Minority Report as it was so physically demanding to (pretend to) use the interface. Tom Cruise is probably a lot physically fitter than most of us who sit in front of a computer all day so it does not bode well for the rest of us.

 

Getting tired from holding your arms up to use a touchscreen is, in the industry, called "gorilla arm".

I can imagine how much worse it must have been for Mr Cruise doing those huge sweeping/rotating motions.

 

The keyboard will be around for a looong long time, nothing can beat it for fool proof simplicity and speed of data entry.
Onscreen keyboards and laser scanning vitual keyboards are ok, but feel massively uncomfortable after extended use, and speech recognition isn't even close to being a practical replacement.
Viva la QWERTY!

 

About ten years ago, we had the same discussion (with the same clock speeds) about Voice recognition.
If only hardware would become fast enough, we'd have it...we hardware is fast enough, voice recognition is still flaky at best.

Hehe, I can imagine, just copy-and-pasting and typing filenames on a touchscreen at eyelevel when standing hurts after 10 minutes

 

I disagree with those people who say that the keyboard will be around "forever", because obviously there will be a replacement. The question is if it will be in the near future, which I don't think it will.

I liked the "stone arrowhead" analogy. It's true that we don't use those anymore. However, the underlying concept of a stone arrowhead has not changed, simply the implementation of it. The idea is that in combat, using some sort of high-speed projectile can harm your enemies. Whether that projectile is a prehistoric stone arrowhead, or a medieval iron arrowhead, or a lead ball, or a rifled slug, or a high-tech armor piercing bullet, the concept of taking a small hard object and launching it at your enemy hasn't changed.

This technology is nice, but the ergonomics are not there. Insert all of the cliche fat american jokes you want, but for an office worker or a gamer who is operaitng the machine several hours each day, the ideal input solution is one which allows you to operate the machine with a minimal amount of movement, to avoid fatigue.

Remember the Wii, with its fancy motion remote control? They put Gamecube controller ports on the top, and most hardcore gamers I've seen play it have used the Gamecube controller. The wiimote was fun for casual gamers, but the real gamers preferred an old style controller.

I won't go so far as to say that touch and motion sensitive technology won't take off, but it won't kill the keyboard. It will just augment it. The same way the creation of the mouse couldn't replace the keyboard, but was able to add a lot of functionality to the PC.

I wouldn't be surprised to see the design of the keyboard change, but the underlying concept of an array of buttons to enter specific characters is here to say. It's fast, and it's accurate. I have seen some super-ergonomic keyboards (not the stupid MS split keyboard) that are two bowl-shaped objects with keys on the inside. Something like that might take off. Some improved technology might take off. But it's just plain silly to say that you won't have some sort of physical keyboard device in ten years. The keyboard has been around for over a century, and I would have a hard time believing that it won't be around for another one, even if it declines to a legacy peripheral that is only used by people wanting to do certain tasks on their computers that would be difficult with voice/touch recognition.

 

I predict the death of the futurologist in 10 years, hehe.
Although the physical keyboard as we know it will likely be less ubiquitous

 

I fell asleep during this video. Isn't it funny how HCI people like to move so many pictures around. I don't. What about other forms of data?!
HIC work is so like Computer AI... Just another 10 years and we'll have cracked it... Love the touchscreen on my iPod Touch - not so good on a bigger machine (e.g. iPad).

 

it'll probably have uses, like during presentations and such.. it's already done with prometheus boards but.. for the guys who want to look like they know what they're doing.. he can stand up there waving his hands around

then go backstage and do somersaults

 

I still have hundreds of PC games to finish so no not for me.

 

Excellent analogy, and some great points.