That's one of the reasons why I suggested an nVidia GPU in my speculation before - GPU accelerated physics simulation would be a real boost to the system, and be something which could be waved (realistically) in front of the Sony crowd. The average punter on the street doesn't have to know it's physics simulation, all they'd care about is that the console has good graphics that look and behave realistically, especially if they could get it working at full 1080p60 resolutions. Of course, the other reason to go with nVidia is that they appear to be ahead of the graphics game at the moment. I really don't think an optical drive will disappear any time soon - moving to a download only platform will alienate an awful lot of people, especially those that don't have a blisteringly fast Internet connection (or those that have a stupidly low download limit). The idea that console users will have to wait for a day to play their game while it downloads is not one that's going to win MS any friends. Likewise, MS won't be able to stick with a DVD drive in their console - they'll have to move to a BluRay drive, especially if they're continuing their marketing of the Xbox as an "entertainment hub" - it wouldn't be much of a hub if it couldn't play the latest movie format...
I think that MS will seriously consider a download/online only model. They will be doing everything they can to build in anti-piracy protection and currently the weak link on the 360 is the optical drive. This model will follow Steam's principle where every game is tied to your Live ID and therefore completely un-transferrable. I would also expect them to tie the Live ID in with your console serial number and even your IP address. They will not want you to sell your console and Live ID together. Should broadband technology allow it, I would also expect that they would not want the games to be stored on the console at all. They would like to leverage the substantial investment in cloud computing so that everything is stored against your profile there. It couldn't happen now, but in five years they may decide that enough of their potential market has the broadband technology to do this. Unless the EU (or similar body) start to crackdown, I will expect the consoles to become even more closed. I imagine that they will stick with ATI/AMD as they did fall out with Nvidia. Whatever, it will be HD/3D/Kinect ready.
I doubt a download / online only model will be used. I, for example, am still on half meg ADSL. I can order a game and have it delivered to me from Amazon faster and more cheaply than I can buy and download it from Steam. Too many people have poor internet, and are due to keep on having it for years, for MS to ostracise them.
although i understand your point the UK (and most of Europe) have got the the minimum broadband speeds (universal service commitment) coming into play over the next 5-10 years which although do not push for a high enough speed in my mind (UK is minimum of 2mb as it stands now) this should however have changed the broadband landscape by the time the next xbox is due. although they might look at a middle ground of having the ability to install it from optical media, however still requiring you to link and validate the game on your xbox live account before you can play it, i still believe they will massivly push digital distibution,
This +1. There just isn't widespread, fast enough broadband in all of Microsoft's target markets to justify a download-only model. They'd lose too many sales if they didn't have some kind of physical media for games. What we might see is some kind of an online registration for games which ties games to a particular console - if the system has a Kinect device built-in, it could just be case of waving a barcode printed on the inside of the case in front of the console.
download with re-writeable sd cards (take to shop - download - take home) no BR-drive (yay!) not massively powerful but 1080p with bells as whistles (they'll want it cheap) kinnect included controller included HD included some storage included - cache 3d supported online will be key! oh and it'll be risc I wish 4 this though http://www.zhell.co.uk/konix.html
Don't see this one happening - it's too open to piracy - unless MS only sell their own (read: expensive) cards that are tied to a specific console. Added to which, the need for perhaps 25Gb+ of storage on a card (to compete with BR discs for the PS3/PS4) would put the cost higher than BD media. If MS are keeping the Xbox idea of a "one stop entertainment shop", they'll need to have a BluRay drive so people can watch their films. I also think that BD media will still be the primary format for a lot of games. Agree with this - it'll be more powerful than the Xbox 360, but just enough to handle 1080p60 with AA and perhaps physics. Unfortunately, I think MS will have to jump on the 3D bandwagon It'll be important, but I don't think it'll replace physical media yet. There are just too many places that don't have decent enough broadband connections to be able to handle a completely online system. The Xenon processor in the Xbox360, being based on the Power Architecture, already is RISC. I remember those!
download speeds arent the only barrier for moving download only Download only means you either need a credit card or MS points, a very big barrier for most of MS's younger customers, probably upto maybe even 21. Its alot easier for parents to spend cash instead of linking their credit cards to their kids xbox or the bother of points that they dont understand and alot of MS's customers are younger and wont have their own credit cards
http://www.amazon.com/Xbox-360-Live-1600-Points/dp/B000B9RI14 http://www.gamestop.com/xbox-360/battlefield-bad-company-2-vietnam/88469?ref=recpdp&cross=610134 Microsoft points can be bought in just about every store. Gamestop has been carrying DLC addons in card form for awhile as well. Give it about another six months to a year and you'll start seeing cards for full titles that can already be bought over Xbox Live without the need for a disc.
2MB, thats the average speed atm of the UK, not the minimum. No they can't change to download only, there are large parts of the country that have slow internet connections, this will not change for a long time because of massive investment needed from telecoms companies.
Case in point: Me. I live in a deadspot between two internet exchanges. We were due to receive fiber optic a year ago, but plans changed, and more built up areas got the better internet. I am 6km from one exchange, and 7km from the other, iirc. Slow ADSL is slow. I would kill for a 2Mb connection.
Unfortunately I think that you will find that by the time this new console is released there will be sufficient coverage across their target market to move to a download only service. I imagine that in 3-5 years time there will only be small areas of the UK that do not have sufficient broadband and as sad as that is for those people, I don't think it will affect Microsoft's target market sufficiently for them to take this into account. Most of where I live is in that category (I am just lucky enough to live right across the road from the exchange that serves most of West Lincolnshire). My exchange is not planning to have either ADSL2+ or FTTC installed - these will be needed for the future I fear. I really cannot see them opting for any optical media. It is the weak link in the system and they will be doign everything to remove it. They certainly will not use blu-ray as this will mean trying to get a licensing deal with Sony - hell will freeze over before that happens. I also suspect that Parental Controls will be tighter in the new boxes - that may involve mandatory credit card verification or some other 'proof' of age. Those who are younger than 18 (or whatever country related age is considered responsible) will have severly restricted access.
The UK's broadband is worse than you think. Seriously, our coverage is terrible. Try getting uncapped internet anywhere. Go ahead, I'll wait I don't know why our infrastructure is so ****ing terrible. It's always been this way. Too many old fuddie duddies in the consumer base who don't know the difference between a kilobit and a megabyte, I guess. Still moving out of the country as soon as I can.
Even assuming broadband speeds improve massively over the next couple of years (they haven't over the last few years, so I'm not optimistic about that), there's still the issue of pointlessly low download caps and throttling. You're also focussing on the UK - what about the rest of Europe and the rest of the world? But its the easiest and cheapest solution, and one that all gamers are already used to. SD cards of sufficient size would be too expensive and sufficient download speeds aren't widespread enough. I don't think they'll have a choice. If they're keeping the idea of the Xbox as an entertainment hub, they'll have to have the ability to play BluRays (a function that has steered many prospective console buyers towards the PS3 in recent years). And since many PS3 games are edging towards filling BD disks rather than DVD, BluRay is the only option for the Xbox as well. After all, what's the point of upgrading the graphics with the ability to display better textures if developers won't be able to fit those textures on a disc? I can see what you're getting at (trying to restrict underage gamers from playing 18 titles), but what about titles rated as 12 or 15? How are you going to restrict those? Any kind of parental controls are going to have to be under the control of the parent (as they should be), I can't see MS alienating parts of the market just to satisfy lazy parents. Ultimately, Microsoft's key aim is to sell as many Xboxes as possible, and they won't do that by sticking to download only titles, by removing the ability to play movies from disc or by requiring a credit card to play certain titles.
So far, the UK is pretty much lagging behind the rest of Europe. Given the various policies set by both the EU and individual European governments, I do expect broadband to reach a minimum speed and distribution in the time-frame MS are looking at. This may be the case, but what it easier and cheaper for gamers is not always in the mind of the hardware and software developers. All you have to do is look at how and Xbos mod is performed to bypass their protection and you will see that the optical drive is the weak link. MS will do everything they can to irradicate this problem. They will have seen the succcess of non-intrusive DRM such as Steam and I bet you they implement something similar. They will also want to make their box as simple as possible to mitigate against breakdowns. Software publishers will also be pushing MS in this direction, they are also aware of the problem that piracy and the second hand market are affecting their bottom line. I am not convinced that Sony will actually allow MS to license it's technology - it's another reason why an optical drive may be ommitted. This was just a 'maybe' really, but if the games industry does not do more to regulate itself then governments are going to do it for them. I just think that they will be forced in this direction. I agree that their aim is to get boxes in houses, but I think that the download model will ultimately be the way forward and it will arrive in the next generation of consoles. I'll bet you £1 ;-)
I think its because its old. We were world leaders when it came to originally installing a lot of our infrastructure so its old and has suffered from chronic under investment since. Also most of the UK was relatively untouched by WW2 so was not rebuilt like much of europe. IMO. Back to the xbox.... I don't see a download only model working yet either as games sizes are increasing. The latest PS3 releases are filling a blu-ray and the main culprit is 3D. For the cinematics you have effectively have two videos, one for each eye, instead of one. The toher is streaming content from the disk as we do not like loading screens. Speeds may increase but downloading a 50gb game is still going to be a chore.
the thing is the universal service commitment stated above, which is 2mb for EVERONE in by 2015 - which should be before the next xbox launches, really when thinking about 5 years time things can change very quickly, hell 5 years ago i was only able to get 1mb on my line now i have 10mb through LLU and if i could be bothered paying for it could get 24mb wimax with a 10mb upload (however at £30 a month more than i am paying now i will hold back a little while for price to become more realistic) and for Blu Ray - well i also feel they will have to have it at least as a option, they might do it more based on multiple models, the basic one only with 1tb hard drive and no blu ray (arcade) next one up with a 2tb hard drive and the top range one with blu ray player as well, actually that sounds like a interesting idea, want optical media based games because your broadband sucks, well you have to buy the top of the range model, and give us more money up front willing to download all your games (and give us more money as not having to pay thrid party stores profit) then you can have a cheaper console
Downloading Napoleon Total War on my 7mb connection took over 5 hours and that was 15Gb. Until we can download games and movies in minutes, not hours, I doubt online distribution will become mainstream.
