I didn't see any thread about this, so I thought I'd start one. What are your thoughts about the current protests in Ukraine? Personally I don't know what to think; it's a very complex situation and much bigger powers are involved in the conflict than just the protesters and their government. To make matters even more difficult, the press coverage is extremely polarised. Most articles I've seen seem to side more or less with the protesters, but today, excerpts from Russian networks were shown on the (Belgian) news and they literally said that "[the protesters were] all right-wing terrorists and neo-nazis doing a coup on the democratically elected government" and "nobody should listen to Western news and journalists", and then there's also this... In any case I feel bad for the many casualties on both sides.
I don't know, I think it is in Russia's interests to help the Ukraine's current government stay in power and keep them out of the EU. Obviously they would want to demonize the protesters and validate the government's actions. The only problem with labeling the protesters as terrorists is that so far I've only seen ordinary people getting beaten and shot by riot police, which doesn't really fall in line the terrorist modus operandi. The Russian's comments about the western media are a joke. As if the western media and he are anything more than propaganda machines in a tug of war. The truth is usually told by ordinary people in blogs, and you still need to cross-reference them as much as possible to filter out the political bias. "Democratically elected" my ass.
What's worrying is that both sides have mounting legitimate reasons to be aggressive as isolated dickheads on each side commit acts of violence and injustice and escalate things. Always seems to be the way: (fairly) peaceful and legitimate protests get hijacked by extremist douchebags who just want to start a war, giving the officials all the excuse they need to reciprocate. By a strange historical coincidence, exactly the same stuff is happening in Venezuela, and there, too, Western media coverage is being lambasted as propaganda while the authorities go way over the top and shoot peaceful protestors. Maybe this is Collapse of Civilization month, or something?
I know this might sound silly, but wouldn't the easiest way to quell all the issues be to either have a referendum or call for a new election? I know this sounds way to easy and the logistics of it all (including proving results were accurate and not faked) would not be a simple matter
Look at Thailand where they have been having serious protests for several years now, one political side took to the streets, there where new elections, then it was the other political side who took to the street an so on, essentially creating a round robin system for who is currently pissed off.
Quite a turn of events: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26304842 The riot police has suddenly left and Yanukovych has fled out of Kiev to the Russian border, but still has no plans to resign.
We shall see. Tymoshenko being released could go either way, unifying the opposition forces or dividing them. Furthermore, while a three month gap is logical and sensible, not to mention the norm, when holding "snap" elections, this time could be used by Yanukovych to build up backroom support, develop and cement a plan with Putin, and retake/hold power via shady means.
Just listened to a radio interview with a Slavist and historian (linky for Dutch-speaking people) who claims that Europe's involvement in this matter might be less "honest" than one would think, or even dangerous. Apparently Poland is one of the biggest driving forces behind the support of the protesters and sanctions against the current Ukrainian government, and that might have something to do with the historical connection between the two countries. Ukraine used to be part of Poland (for some time) until the 17th century and ever since then the Polish people have felt the urge to return to the Great Poland of the past and get revenge on the Russians (apparently the Polish really don't like Russians). With Ukraine divided as it is, they're hoping a part might want to join them again. Secondly, among the protesters there is a not insubstantial (and growing) group of extreme right wing organisations who are using these riots for their own benefits and are as anti-European as they are anti-Russian. These people currently also benefit from the European support and even (accidentally?) got a speech from Guy Verhofstadt telling them they're heroes fighting for freedom, liberty and democracy...
So now know the political leanings of this radio interviewee. The only way one could call the rightists in the protest movement not insubstantial is to include Svoboda, but to call them extreme right would be to either lie or to utterly misunderstand them. Svoboda are certainly a nationalist rightist group, but there is nothing illegitimate about that. I can't say I agree with their stance, but to colour them as being extreme right or "nazis" as the Russians constantly do is just to attempt to frame this is a fascist coup, which ignores the fact that this entire protest movement only has a minority of its people composed of svoboda.
Russian marines are on the move in Crimea -and the Ukraine army is mobilising. nice NATO has all those cold war era armoured formations to repel a Russian massed tank invasion....
NATO won't get involved to save Crimea. The question will be how much the Ukranians are willing to fight to save it. Ukraine, unlike Georgia, has some quite capable armed forces.
This could easily flip in to a major conflict if it is allowed to spin out of control. Russia seems to be sending special forces troops in to the airports/naval bases and government buildings to take local power in the Crimea, whilst their rhetoric is incredibly aggressive. Ukraine then has a choice - resist Russia by themselves, ask for help or roll over. The NATO countries are highly unlikely to want to risk outright warfare - it would probably result in WWIII, as Russia are a significant power that can only be resisted by other significant powers. Many countries are only just getting out of their last war (Afghanistan), and are incredibly tired of conflict. Likely that it'll be Ukraine going solo against Russia, maybe with some wishy washy statements and economic sanctions on their side. This isn't going to be pretty :/
I think your are right, I think that is what Putin is banking on. But like you say, the Ukrainians do have armed forces that can make Russian interference expensive, if not actually fight them off. I just wish Putin would quit the denial and just 'come out'; he'll feel better and the world will be a safer place.
i know its naive, but i just hope that not more people get hurt over this raving BS. this is just escalating!
