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E.U: Leave or Stay? Your thoughts.

Discussion in 'Serious' started by TheBlackSwordsMan, 22 Feb 2016.

  1. Corky42

    Corky42 Where's walle?

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    Not that i know one way or the other, although going on this blog post i read that seems to take fairly well balanced view I'm inclined to agree.

    The only problem is I'm not sure our politicians have the intelligence to make it work without screwing it up along the way.
     
  2. Nexxo

    Nexxo * Prefab Sprout – The King of Rock 'n' Roll

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    I think that people underestimate the ability of the EU to emulate the UK in putting political ideal before economic pragmatism.
     
  3. Guest-23315

    Guest-23315 Guest

  4. Corky42

    Corky42 Where's walle?

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    A typical jobs for the boys move, turns out things like that are not exclusive to the UK, although it doesn't bode well for Brexit as that guy's got a reputation for being a bit of a dick (people claim he was the source of the leak on the meeting/dinner May had with Junker) and he's about as europhile as you can get.
     
  5. Nexxo

    Nexxo * Prefab Sprout – The King of Rock 'n' Roll

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    For now...
     
  6. Guest-23315

    Guest-23315 Guest

    It will end up staying that way.
     
  7. Archtronics

    Archtronics Minimodder

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    Perhaps, all depends on the decisions makers risk profiles.
    To me the current commision look and sound very risk averse hence economic pragmatism will win the day short term, long term I think they will look to slowly nibble away at Londons position.
     
  8. Corky42

    Corky42 Where's walle?

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    Come the zombie apocalypse. :D
     
  9. Anfield

    Anfield Multimodder

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    Going for equivalence would be pointless, the reason being Switzerland.

    Allow me to elaborate:
    The agreements Switzerland has with the EU as a total add up to EEA membership in drag.
    So where does equivalence come into it?
    A significant portion of the thousands of small agreements if viewed in isolation are effectively equivalence.
    However that falls apart the moment you look at how they all tie together and realize that they can't be disentangled without it resulting in cherry picking.
    Further if the EU would allow the UK to cherry pick it would make the EU look bad as they have denied Switzerland (and various others) the opportunity to do so.

    How is that any different than what I suggested with an effective EEA membership for the UK financial sector?

    The EU would have a much easier job selling an effective EEA membership for the UK financial sector politically since they can dress up the message as them retaining control over an integral aspect of the financial system. Getting that same message across with the less explicit subservience with a Switzerland style agreement would be damn near impossible.

    What about it from a UK point of view?
    The upside of an effective EEA membership for the UK financial sector would obviously be providing continued access as well as avoiding a cliff edge, sounds too good to be true? The big caveat of course would be that some UK politician would have to commit career suicide by excluding the financial sector from "taking back control".
     
    Last edited: 9 Mar 2018
  10. Corky42

    Corky42 Where's walle?

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    I don't think they'd have to sell anything, i get the sense most people who voted to leave the EU aren't paying attention to what the government is doing, either that or they don't care: We won, we're leaving, get on with it...i don't care about the details or that it's complicated just do it.
     
  11. RedFlames

    RedFlames ...is not a Belgian football team

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    'It's not about the money/economy... it's about *mumbles*...'
     
  12. Anfield

    Anfield Multimodder

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    After all the babble about committing to leaving on 29th March 2019 "get on with it" is getting less and less optional with each day, time doesn't play political games:hehe:

    Even if they aren't paying attention / caring now, I assume they will be complaining later down the line if it does go wrong, so if politicians think they can half ass it due to some not paying attention / caring then those politicians will be in for a very rude awakening.
     
  13. Nexxo

    Nexxo * Prefab Sprout – The King of Rock 'n' Roll

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    Dunno. Half-assing their way to Brexit seems to be their whole strategy. :blah:
     
    Last edited: 9 Mar 2018
  14. Anfield

    Anfield Multimodder

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    Not saying they aren't, just that they won't enjoy the hangover from it come GE time.
     
  15. Nexxo

    Nexxo * Prefab Sprout – The King of Rock 'n' Roll

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    I'd like to agree with you, but if the EU referendum proved anything it is that people will vote for anything and anybody. Because people are ignorant and irrational, politicians are all as bad as each other and insanity is all about doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result every time.
     
  16. Corky42

    Corky42 Where's walle?

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    What Nexxo said, but also it's very unlikely that any hangover will effect the outcome of a GE.

    The amount of votes the Conservatives will lose from people who think they've ballsed it up has already been gained back from UKIP, from painting Corbyn as a communist spy / terrorist / or *insert slander here*, throw in a little it's all the fault of the EU and only we, the Conservatives, are tough enough to give the EU what for and you have a recipe for winning the next 4-5 general elections.

    People have already said they're expecting to be worse off in the short-term (without defining how short that is) so the politicians will play on peoples perception that short term pain will result in long term gains, it will take decades before enough people realise that this short term pain is going on much longer than they expected.

    You only have to look back at the 08 financial crisis to see how people lapped up the idea of short term pain, we'll clear the deficit by *insert date*, and AFAIK some 8 years later it's still not been cleared and austerity is still in full swing even after its been widely discredited as a failed economic model and abandoned by most other developed economies.
     
    Last edited: 10 Mar 2018
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  17. Nexxo

    Nexxo * Prefab Sprout – The King of Rock 'n' Roll

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    Ironically if the UK had not voted Brexit, the government could have stuck to its original budget and cleared the deficit around now.
     
  18. Archtronics

    Archtronics Minimodder

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    Actually surprisingly the day to day deficit was cleared a few weeks ago we are now in surplus.
    Oddly the government have said nothing about it, you would’ve expected them to be shouting from the roof tops.
     
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  19. loftie

    loftie Multimodder

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    I imagine it'd lead to questions such as "can we start spending more on services now?". £350 mil for the NHS please, etc, and the conservative are probably not inclined to want to do that.
     
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  20. Anfield

    Anfield Multimodder

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    They just haven't found a way to blame the lost impact reports for it on brown people yet:grin:
     

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