E.U: Leave or Stay? Your thoughts.

I'm not sure the Torys are going to risk letting the people decide again its a lose/lose game for them.

Besides my perception is most leavers don't seem to have changed there mind and they are also more likley to go out an vote.
Remain voters on the other hand are sick of hearing about it and I think a fair portion of them won't bother voting a second time.

So for remain to win I think its going to require a big proportion of those who didn't vote last time to turnout.
Granted the surveys don't say this but they never really cover the views of disintrested who often tip the balence.

 

As much as I'd like to see a second referendum and the UK staying, the reality is that certain parties would promise yet another one and gain votes and further **** it up for everybody.

I've no doubt it'd see a resurgence of Nigel Nincompoop.

As I've always said, I think this train has no stops other than '****ty deal' junction or 'no deal' terminus.

 

Dave Cameron. You should be tried for treason.

I mean UK turnout for European elections has ranged from 24% to 38.5%, and yet the electorate was asked to vote on leaving.

Ok, decide on something we've obviously encouraged you never to take an interest in.

 

Rumours indicate anywhere from 100 to 150 Tory MPs would have voted against it in its current form (hence why she pulled it) and general logic would suggest that getting enough concessions from the EU to flip that many votes ain't going to happen.

Of course you might be right about the deal passing eventually because the pulled vote was only at the 11th hour... if she tries again at 11.55 then panic might take care of it and cause MPs to back it due to "no choice".

 

The strong link with voting and age will mean that more leave voters will have died than remain voters. Given ~500k people die each year in the UK, that's a shift decent shift in 2.5 years. With cuts in social care for the elderly (amongst others) then maybe she is just waiting for another cold snap to bump a few more off before she opens up a second referendum...

At the other end of the spectrum more younger voters (who are strongly remain) will now be eligible to vote the longer its left.

 

That's what I think will happen she just need to buy enough time so that the only options left for the bulk of Mp's is her deal.

I agree as I mentioned I think the young need to turnout and vote for Remain to win with any convincing margin. I'm slightly doubtful it will happen because they are also the generation who think they can't have any effect the most so why bother.

Still I don't see a scenario where another referendum helps the Tory party.

 

That is a slippery slope - tyranny starts when governments decide that the populace are not to be listened to and they know best.

Therein lies part of the problem... people are playing party politics, and lobbying for position and power rather than doing what is required for the country.


The fact that a proportion of the populace are stoopid can't be helped. And despite the lying and and meddling by leavers and external actors, I don't see a major proplem with the referendum.

However, the actions triggered by the referendum should be to investigate and agree the exit, with the verdict put back before the public in a second referendum: 'Here's the best deal we've been able to negotiate, and here's our updated impact assessment; do you still want to leave based on these?'.

The problem is, now we all know what a crock of **** we're facing, only the blind fanatics want to proceed, and too many PM have vested interests in not changing direction.

 

Germany had a referendum in 1934 where Hitler used the 'will of the people' to give him standing as the overarching Head of State. Tyranny can come from both the State and the People.

Then again the Swiss seem to have them almost every month it makes you wonder why they have any politicians. Think they've had 3 or 4 this year.

Democracy is a balancing act I suppose.

 

Unfortunately that's what the UK system is based on, the supposed mother of all parliaments is a representative democracy not a direct democracy, and it's that way for arguably very good reasons, the populace are *indeed not to be listened to and parliamentarians are meant to know best.

*Depending on circumstances.

Case in point, the people we elect to represent us are meant to stop the country from doing something they believe is stoopid or against the countries self interest.

IIRC most people want to bring back capital punishment but for what i hope are obvious reasons parliament has so far rejected calls to bring back the death penalty.

Just because a majority want to do something doesn't mean it's the right thing to do.

 

It would be hilarious if it weren't true - https://www.thenational.scot/news/1...lack-nails-the-absurdity-of-the-uk-on-brexit/

 

Well, there definitely is a trend of late... especially amongst the die-hard Leavers. But never underestimate the stupidity of people.

 

I slightly distrust those kind of surveys simply because by doing them in the first place you have to be interested in it and that does tend to lead to a more informed opinion eventually.

Not scientific I know but the die hard leavers in my local pub haven’t changed there position one bit in fact I’d say they are even more entrenched. The only thing that’s changed is it’s now Theresa Mays fault instead of the EUs fault.

I think it would all come down to remain voters, I think a lot of them are so disillusioned and fed up with it they just wouldn’t bother a second time.

 

Disillusioned and fed up of a fiasco we all saw coming. I think the opposite, that they'd jump at the chance to rectify the situation.

I only know one die-hard leaver, my mum, who says she thinks she was naive, feels misled, just wants it over with and is worried about what will happen.

 

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True, but there definitely is a pattern developing.

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Indeed. Remain voters stayed in because they thought it was in the bag, whereas Leave voters went out to try and swing the vote. Now it would be Remainers who would be motivated to swing the vote. Add to that new young voters and the loss of older ones, and the fear of a no-deal, Remain would stand a good chance.

Which is why, of course, Brexiteers like Rees-Mogg changed their mind on a second referendum.

But the majority of people also don't want yet another Tory leadership contest, they definitely don't want BoJo in charge, and they don't want a no-deal Brexit. So if all these things happen and the UK economy tanks, there is going to be an electorate very angry with the Tory party.

 

Govt spokesdroids insist that Maybot can, despite claims to the contrary, fight her way out of a wet paper bag...

 

Brexit deal foiled by a child lock.

 

No confidance letters in it seems.

 

And the Tory 40+ year in fighting continues.

 

Any new PM would have the same problem as May:
Remain?
EEA?
EFTA?
NI only backstop (i.e. NI special status)?
The May deal?
No deal?
None of the options would pass parliament... so why bother ousting her?

And to change the parliamentary arithmetic a new PM would have to risk holding a GE, so the party might actually let her win the no confidence vote to keep her around as a scapegoat and only throw her out next year.