E.U: Leave or Stay? Your thoughts.

And the ****-show gets even ****tier.

 

The ERG has already lined up their unicorns:

- Leave on managed no-deal
- trigger GATT article XXIV to maintain current trading conditions (including SM and CU) to prevent a crash-out
- ...while negotiating a CETA+ style FTA
- …and offering magic technology to break the N.I. border backstop.

Now pay particular attention to GATT article XXIV, which basically allows the UK and EU to maintain transition arrangements for up to 10 years as long as FTA negotiations are ongoing. This apparently simple solution has a few snags:
- It is basically a transition period, but one not lasting 20 months, but lasting up to ten years;
- It does not cover services, unless GATS article 5 is also triggered;
- It has to be agreed on and triggered by both parties: the UK and the EU; if the EU says "no" it can't happen;
- It has to be negotiated between both parties what this interim arrangement will look like: CU, SM and ECJ oversight or not? Cue the same objections made regarding the 20-month transition period about vassalage etc.

So it solves exactly nothing; if anything it makes the situation slightly worse from the hard Leaver point of view. There now has to be a negotiation on an even longer transition period, before there can be a negotiation process on the deal itself (tick tock!); the N.I. border still remains unresolved; it is just kicked down the road.

Moreover, an interim agreement would normally be expected to state what the “fully-fledged” final agreement would contain, and the increased chance that objecting members could resort to litigation under the WTO’s dispute settlement system.

More info on these articles here.

 

Don't worry, there's plenty of time to sort out the little details. We'll get Davis to do it.

 

Easiest. Deal. Ever.

 

It doesn't have to solve anything, Brexit is a belief in much the same way as people believe in god, it's not about if something will make it better, worse, or even if it's true or not, it's about the person telling you to have faith in what their saying, it's about believing there's going to be dusky maidens and white fluffy clouds when you're dead.

Re: The NI border that's already been solved it's just Mrs May didn't like the solution, it's a border down the Irish sea.

 

I think the Scots wouldn't be happy with that though...

 

Not even to mention that the Isle of Man pretty much already has the "special status" May and the DUP oppose so much.

(yes, I know it is technically the reverse of the NI situation as the Isle of Man is further away from the EU than the UK, but doesn't really change the point about the Isle of Man being treated differently).

 

I didn't say it was palatable but leaver voters tell us that's what they wanted, they knew what they voted for and without a withdrawal agreement the GFA means that's the default choice.

EDIT: It's a Newsthump article so it's meant to be satire but it says a great deal IMO.

 

I've just emailed my MP to ask him to vote against her tonight. New leadership needed.

 

I'd love to be a fly on the wall in select EU leaders offices when they read the latest UK-related headlines.

I wonder how many languages I could learn "idiots" in..

 

I imagine that's waht they said when they saw May proudly announcing the 'deal' she had "secured".

 

She's secured the deal people voted for though.

 

I can't think who wanted this dog's dinner.

 

Won't make one bit of difference. The reality will still be the reality whoever is in charge.

There's no substance backing any of the rhetoric. JRM et al are just playing party politics with the country.

I see Davis is playing the pathetic spineless card again, giving her the courtesy of speaking before he decides. Nah Dave, you're just waiting to see who'll win.

 

No, she's terrible and not just at Brexit. She started off talking too tough, made a bunch of bad decisions and then folded and is just trying to sell a deal, any deal to anyone that will vote for it.

 

Wasn't it something like 17 million people? People voted to leave or remain, we knew what remaining meant and we're told leave voters knew what they voted for.

People may not like this dog's dinner but that's what they voted for, the whitepaper on what leaving would look like wasn't publish until some 6+ months after the vote and even then it only amounted to something like 80 pages of if's, but's, and maybes.

I even remember having a conversation in this very thread before the referendum talking about why StuartPB (whatever happened to him?) and similar people who intended to vote leave, why they trusted what they knew were duplicitous, incompetent, politicians without knowing what the plan was, what Brexit meant, and why they believed they'd get what they wanted.

 

Just think if he'd allowed another referendum (like we are asking for) to check the country was happy with what he'd done with his newly gained powers....


The bottom line is that 53% of the country want no brexit and that number will increase as old people die and young people gain the right to vote. 37% still want brexit of some sort, and the rest are undecided. The previous vote was based on lies and speculation; we now have a better of idea of what Brexits are possible and the potential consequences of them. If we had this information then, would the vote have gone the same way? Now we are better informed, does it not makes sense to review our collective decision?

Unfortunately, May is likely to lose her no confidence vote, and the chance of a moderate Tory (let alone remainer) taking over is tending towards zero. So just as the possibility of sanity prevailing appears, we're going to be led forceably throught the Brexit door by one or other hardcore Brexit idealogue.

This is where the opposition would normally step in, to provide a counter-balance. Unfortunately, though the majority of Labour MPs (and voters) want a second vote, the leadership and the Executive are themselves leaning towards Brexit, and are sitting passively, hoping for the Tories to succeed so they (the leadership) can both get what they want but make the Tories take the fall for it.

Give it 30 years and Brexit will be a standard module on the History, Sociology & Psychology curricula.

 

The problem is and was that people supported Brexit for different reasons and some are so different that they had barely any common ground. Much as the Remain had elements (Corbyn) that would have nothing to do with the main cross-party campaign.

Carswell, Hannan, Johnson and the like are liberal free-marketeers for whom immigration wasn't a big deal. Farage is backward-looking traditionalist nationalist. There were also Labour Leavers with completely different views again.

But no-one was arguing for this.

 

Err I wouldn't use 'Remain' and 'Corbyn' together. He's pretty much voted against being anything to do with the EU since the 70's and disappeared when the last referendum took place.

As for ths current situation, anybody who didn't see this coming is either in denial or didn't look hard enough.

The Brexit camp never had a single message, they still don't.

Referendum please. Leave on WTO (as Farage et al want) or Remain. Then we'd know exactly where we stand.

Edit: As for May, doubt she's going anywhere. JRM et al are tactically inept, god help us if anyone of them takes her place.

 

One key question is always "If May is PM will I keep my seat at the next general election?"