E.U: Leave or Stay? Your thoughts.

Didn't they vote against a 'no deal'? I know that isn't legally binding on the government, as in it's not changed any legislation, but as a major aspect of the referendum was about parliamentary sovereignty wouldn't ignoring the will of parliament and allowing the UK to leave without 'a deal' be a seen as sticking two fingers up at the idea of parliamentary sovereignty.

They would as the backstop is Mrs May's backstop, the EU had a very different idea of what the backstop should look like at the start of the negotiations, IIRC they wanted a border down the Irish sea and Mrs May ruled that out with one of her red lines.

She spent something like six months convincing the EU to accept keeping the UK and NI in a customs union with the EU during the negotiations on a trade deal, now she want's to go back to them after they begrudgingly accepted something they didn't want and say "please sir, i want some more".

 

If it's not a binding vote then it's time wasting. From a procedural and legislative viewpoint it's not the will of Parliament, it's just an informal show of hands at a hypothetical question.

Of course the margin of it's passing was greater than the margin of the non-binding vote that got us into this mess to begin with, the one that the far right seems intent on using to hijack the country, but that's another rant entirely.

 

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That's my point though, while it's not a binding vote it is the will of Parliament. In other words Mrs May can't withdraw A50 and claim she was forced into doing so because of those tricksy remainers and she can't allow the UK to leave with 'no deal' without sticking two fingers up at one of the key reasons for leaving.

 

Hasn't stopped her so far. The UK will crash out. It's not going to be pretty. And the next decade? Best not think about that; I aim not to be here for it.

 

We'll be OK (The Omnishambles Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland)

 

True, she's not one for listening, but if we do crash out without a WA isn't it going to have the same effect on party unity as if we cancel A50? What I'm trying to say is that it seems all roads lead back to where this all started, with a leader facing a deeply divide party and the potential of splitting the party in two.

I know it'll be cold comfort if, or when, we leave without a WA but at least we won't have to put up with a divided party (in terms of the EU) putting themselves before what's best for the country.

FWIW I'm not saying it's a good thing as IMO Cameron should've just told the Eurosceptics in his party to bugger off instead betting the country against holding his party together, but we are where we are.

 

Raab basically saying it'll be the EU's fault if we now crash out on WTO.

Yeah, right, ok, no. Incompetent farce.

 

No, because people are stupid. The government will just say that it respected the vote, the will of the people, democracy; it was the EU that wouldn't play ball. And about 50% of the population will buy into it. And anyway, you only have to worry about the opposition. Which, currently, is as useless as a sack of squirrels.

There will be shock and awe amongst the population. The parties will entrench further into extremist far-right/far-left positions. Violence and hostility towards immigrants will increase radically. There will be chaos while the UK tries to adapt to its new economic circumstances and tries to negotiate trade deals with 50+ nations --and the EU-- who will all smell blood in the water. The UK will in a state of financial desperation sell off any remaining assets it has to foreign business; everything will be on the table. Utilities, infrastructure, the NHS, civil service departments. Parts of government itself will be privatised and outsourced to foreign interests. imagine China, India and the US tearing chunks out of the country and leaving only the carcass. Meanwhile:

Brexit won't be over. It will only be the beginning of decades of political and economic chaos and purgatory in which other nations will pull all the strings (taking back control indeed) and which will make the last 2 years look like a picnic.

This is why I am already calculating my NHS pension entitlements at age 55 (2 years to go) and whether I can afford to live on that, looking at jobs in the Netherlands and planning my exit from this country. Not just because I don't like it here anymore, but because I am genuinely worried.

 

I'm not talking about people, I'm talking about a political party.

The government can say whatever it likes but that's not going to change the fact that no matter what option Mrs May chooses it's not going heal the divide in her party, choose to leave without a WA and she risks MPs loosing MPs because of the damage to the UK and ignoring the sovereign will of parliament, choose to cancel A50 and she risks upsetting the Eurosceptics.

If this whole sorry episode hasn't shown you that what's best for the country and 'normal' people doesn't matter when it comes to the unity of the Conservatives IDK what would.

All ^^that^^ doesn't matter as entrenching further into extremist far-right/far-left positions isn't something that would threaten their grasp on power, violence and hostility towards immigrants is probably something that would actually serve them well, along with chaos, change in economic circumstances, and everything else.

IDK If you watched Inside Europe - 10 Years of Turmoil on BBC2 a few nights ago but that (IMO) makes it crystal clear that what's best for the country and 'normal' people is completely irrelevant and that the only reason Cameron called a referendum was because party unity trumped everything.

EDIT: And BTW putting party politics before what's best for the country and 'ordinary' people isn't something exclusive to the Conservatives in case anyone takes what i said as being partisan, Corbyn is doing exactly the same thing in his support of Brexit, he hopes the worse things get for people the more likely they're to elect him and his rather radical version of socialism.

It's what happens in a two party system as you can't do what you believe is 'best' for the country or the people if you're not in power, so getting into power trumps everything.

 

Never thought I'd say it but I do wish we could have a 2nd referendum. The 52/48% divide needs putting to bed once and for all and either way the result fell that would be an end to that particular argument. Whatever the result was, our MP's would have absolutely no doubt that a majority public mandate had been made and they would have to deliver on that mandate. We are seeing politicians playing the party game on both sides of the commons, rather than acting on what their constituents want. This is a massive problem for me with British politics. It's a broken system and it isn't likely to change any time soon.

The trouble is though, I think a second referendum would deliver results with the difference being so marginal it wouldn't solve anything. If we got another 52/48% vote but this time in favour of remain, we'd still be seeing the divides we are now and the bickering over this. The only way this is really going to be solved is with a majority vote with a damned good margin. As far as I can tell that's not going to happen.

 

Which is why the question should never have been asked in the first place. Up until then, people were getting on with their lives. There were problems, sure, but the EU was neither the cause of that nor leaving the solution.

But it's like Yugoslavia: people living in peace as neighbours for generations, until someone suddenly raised the question of what ethnicity people were and whether they should have their own country. Neighbour turned against neighbour and deaths and war crimes followed. And those wounds are not going to heal anytime soon.

This is not going back in the box. The least damaging option would be to cancel Brexits, bib there would still be damage. On the other hand carrying through with it will be immeasurably worse.

 

You were asking whether this would change anything about the Tory party division. I'm saying it won't --you'll just get more polarised parties. All we will get is chaos and economic decline and people will still vote for the architects of their doom. As Theresa May says: nothing will change. Except people's lives, most drastically.

 

Unfortunately it looks clear from the vote split last night that Parliament is split almost to the same degree as the original vote.

I still can't believe we have a parliament that is against Art 50 extension (in the event of nothing being agreed), against a no deal exit and also for asking for amendments that are not likely to go anywhere.

How on earth do you reconcile that position, especially considering how close some of the votes were.

More and more we look like we are either heading for No deal (*shudders*) or May's deal once enough MP's blink first.

As a "Remainer" and responsible for UK/EU Import/&Export compliance in a £1.5bn turnover company, I am shocked we are somehow in this position. I had read the no deal preparation documents from the Government and HMRC (latest being the JCCC notes). Not only are there glaring omissions, what's there isn't even clear.

 

I hate to say it but IIRC people, at least on this forum and in this thread, said as much over two years ago. That the problems people face in their day-to-day lives is caused more by our own politicians than the EU.

I know you haven't commented in this thread for sometime and that's understandable IMO, however if you have the time this video is well worth a watch, it's doesn't have a remainer slant IMO, you decide though.



It does a good job of highlighting how duplicitous our MPs have been, again IMO.

I wasn't asking i was proposing that it may, either way that's just me being a d*** about semantics.

I disagree though, for the reasons I've already laid out.

If Mrs May cancells A50 do you really think the likes of JRM, BJ et al wouldn't consider defecting to another Eurosceptic party like Douglas Carswell and Mark Reckless did back in 2014?

If Mrs May leaves without WA after a sovereign parliament have made their will known and she once again is found to be holding parliament in contempt do you think the likes of Anna Soubry and Nicky Morgan would stick around when the poo starts hitting the fan?

 

I hope that if anything comes out of the last two years, it's reforms to our political system. We are all fed up of our politicians, we all know that they are not truly representing us, especially if our will conflicts with the party line and we all know that many of our politicians are self serving and self righteous, duplicitous people, lacking in morale fibre and also backbone, so why are more people not demanding the reforms we so desperately need?

A prime example of this is with Dame Rosie Winterton, our MP here in my neck of the woods. It took us almost 2 years as a community action group to get her to attend a public meeting to address serious and pressing concerns residents had over issues which she should have been involved with and offering support with but wasn't. We basically had to resort to threatening her with bad media before she came. The area in question is only a small part of her overall constituency so she could afford to ignore us because losing the vote in that area wouldn't have resulted in her losing her seat, the remainder of the constituency is and always has been staunch labour. This is the level of contempt shown to constituents across the country. It's been glaringly evident throughout the last two years in the Brexit debacle.

I haven't a clue how it could be fixed, but it does need fixing. I can see civil unrest becoming a reality and I'm old enough to remember the Brixton, Toxteth and the multitude of other riots and those times weren't good for anyone!! Can our politicians not see it coming???

 

Not going to happen. In fact Brexit will make it worse. There will be chaos and scared and angry people wanting a "strong leader" to "take control" and that is the climate in which autocratic government thrives.

Charles Stross says that the event horizon in democratic politics is five years; it is impossible to predict political developments beyond that. In five years you won't recognise this country. I plan not to be here.

 

Remainers have been narrowly in the majority since 2017, by most polls and estimations, as the leave promises gradually turned out as vapourware. But as the situation really started to crystallise last summer, remainers have been growing in number... (Jan YouGov reports out of decided voters, 56% would vote remain and 44% leave)

My reading of this is that 'dont knows' are are making their minds up - another poll I read back in Q4 2018 said a 54/46 split but with a sizable number still undecided, but in the YouGov poll that is down to 7%. I'm sure there are some leavers who have changed their mind, but in my experience, not many - I live in a firm leave-supporting area (ironically one likely to be more adversely affected by Brexit), and I've only come across one who has changed his mind.

Curiously, leavers don't tend to be proclaiming that leaving is still the best thing - 'a non-binding vote was taken (based on ignorance, speculation & lies) but it's too late to change because the people have spoken'.

 

I don't have that luxury, so for me it's all about making the best of the situation, whatever that may be. We've argued about optimism before but I refuse to live in a state of eternal pessimism. If things get tough, I've not got any other option other than to ride them out as best I can. To me that isn't blind optimism, it's called being pragmatic. Whatever happens now is out of my control. So being pragmatic, even if I'm not happy about that is all I can really do.

I'm British, I live in Britain, my family is British, I work in Britain and my future is in Britain so however the cookie crumbles I'm seeing it through, come hell or high water, whether I want to or not. That doesn't make me a raving nationalist, it's the reality of my situation. So if I choose to refuse to live in a state of eternal pessimism is that really so wrong?