E.U: Leave or Stay? Your thoughts.

Labour would be mad to vote for the deal... so, natch, i think a sizable chunk of them are gonna...


...but it's not over 'til the fat bercow sings. [Also the deal has to go through the Euro parly too].

 

Boris is intent on throwing the DUP under the bus...

...the DUP signal their intent/desire to blow the bus up.

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Choice of words was intentional.

 

*yawn*
Different rules for NI was what May brought back from Brussels and it got nuked so hard that she didn't even consider allowing Parliament a say and instead went back to Brussels to have the special NI rules extended to the whole UK, only to lose in Parliament three times regardless of those changes...

So what chance does this "new" deal really have? Especially since Boris surrendered his "majority" not long ago.

 

DUP - never gonna vote for it
SNP - never gonna vote for it
ERG - Well in theory they *shouldn't* vote for it for the same reasons they didn't vote for may's... But many have indicated they will
'The 21' - again, *shouldn't* vote for it... but most probably will.
Labour - Again, they *shouldn't* vote for it... but as i said, i kinda expect a sizable chunk to vote for it even though it's worse and further from Labour's deal preferences than May's was...
LibDems - **** knows... they'll probably shoot themselves in the face.


TL-DR, if everyone stick to the same positions the held with may's deal, it should bomb as hard, but it all depends if the various factions retreat from their positions as far and as willingly as Johnson did.

 

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Lulz...

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I think the only thing anyone (besides @Nexxo) can say for certain is that we have no idea what the outcome will be.

 

The only certainty is that things remain uncertain.

 

Yeah, exactly

 

So i guess for Boris and the ERG this is all roughly going to plan, try to force the opposition to table a VONC, get a majority, and throw NI under the bus.

Granted it's not all gone perfectly as the GE didn't happen this side of November but with the advantage of hindsite it seems this may have been the ERG's plan all along, May did say after all that no PM would agree to the EU's initial proposal and what Boris has basically just agreed to.

 

Not really, they wanted to make it a straightforward single vote between Doris Deal and No Deal on Saturday, however due to a vote earlier today they will have to allow amendments, plus at least one legal challenge has already been launched over the deal plus if they where hoping to sign up some Labour MPs, that'll be tough as even Kate Hoey hates the deal.

 

Yes but there are few useful idiots like Kinnock who could be convinced to vote for it.

 

Thought it was Comic Sans?

 

Considering that the only thing Boris cares about is being PM (Brexit just being a means to that end, after all), I think his sole objective is to win the next GE. So this is how I think he gamed it:

- MPs vote for deal: Boris goes into the next GE campaigning on the ticket that he is the PM who "got Brexit done". Rides to victory.

- MPs vote down deal: Boris makes a show of reluctantly asking for an extension, respecting (but therefore implicitly blaming) the Benn Act. He then calls the next GE and campaigns on the ticket that he got the deal he promised, within the deadline he promised, but it's those pesky MPs in the HoC who thwarted him, and Brexit. He implores the people to vote for him so he gets a solid majority to push the deal through HoC and "get Brexit done". Rides to victory.

Will Leavers vote for him? Sure they will. They don't actually understand the deal. They can barely tell you what it is. They just didn't like May's deal because they didn't trust "Remainer May", and Boris said it was a bad deal, so it must be, right? But this is Boris' deal, and he says it's a good deal so it must be. They trust Boris because he was the Brexit campaign leader, so a true beLeaver. Basically if May brought them ice cream and Boris brought them a turd, they'd eat the turd. And tell themselves it's the best thing they'd ever tasted.

Now Farage may of course campaign against him but he is already losing support even from his own BP members. When he complained on Twitter that the EU wasn't respecting the Benn Act (of all things), the reaction from some BP supporters was, interestingly: "Johnson got Brexit done. WTF more do you want?" Farage can campaign on the narrative that Johnson's is a bad deal, but he can't promise a better deal. He can only promise a no-deal, and contrary to what the Express likes you to believe, there is only about 20% public support for no deal (at latest polling). As far as Leavers will be concerned, Boris walked the walk, while Farage just talks the talk.

 

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...or the ERG stab Johnson in the back, like they did May, once that actually realise what Johnson has agreed to.


lol...

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"How You Like Me Now?"
The Boris

Now there was a time,
When you loved me so.
I couldn't do wrong,
And now you need to know.

See, I been a bad bad bad bad heel.
And I'm in deep, yeah.
I struck a brand new Brexit deal,
And can't wait till you see.
I can't wait.

So how you like me now?
How you like me now?
How you like me now?
How you like me now?

How you like me now?
How you like me now?
How you like me now?
How you like me now?

Remember the time
When I chatted you up
Yeah Brexit was a lie
That you can't give up.

If I was to cheat
Oh no, would you see right through me?
If I sing a sad sad sad sad song
Would you vote for me? Would you?

So how you like me now?
How you like me now?
How you like me now?
How you like me now?

(etc.)