Truss isn't going to make it to the next election. The Tory grandees will step in and orchestrate a no confidence removal to install someone more credible, in an effort to calm the nerves of the traditional tory voter who is leaning elsewhere.
She might not make it to the end of the party conference. Still doesn't quite compute that she's only been PM for 3 and a bit weeks...
Calling it now: we're going to see a big uptick in attacks on major Labour party members from the supine client media. Wonder if they've got anything bigger on Starmer than that time they decried him buying a massive field... ...that he gave to his mum... ...so she could run a donkey sanctuary. It's the only move they've got left, though: nobody's buying that the current Tory party's worth voting for, so they're going to have to try to make Labour look worse.
It worked against Ed, it worked against Jeremy, it might work against Keir. After all, if they can't dig anything up, they can just make something up and spread it around Facebook, then run articles about the allegations. Or they can play to the usual paranoia about how The Left will destroy the country in service of the 'Liberal Elite'.
If they could just hold off on collapsing the Pound until I've sold our home and converted the proceeds into Euros...
Ah, y'see, I'm feeling kinda the opposite right now 'cos tomorrow's invoice day and the bulk of my billing's going to be in USD again...
I mean I know they want to make it harder for anyone in the medical professions to leave but it's a bit extreme tanking the £ to keep you here.
It's been very interesting time, personally I don't see an issue with the proposed policies, but I'm not a hardcore leftie like some on here, you can see what they are trying to do, the market reaction is quite OTT but that is to be expected any time someone does something that goes against the accepted norms. Does it feel a bit crazy, yeah, maybe. I think it was a mistake to just come in with part of a plan and not show your homework or your full plan, should have just came in gave up the energy stuff and the lower tax cut then announce the rest as part of a full package later. Much is being made about the top tax rate and bankers bonuses, optically it is bad but that 1.4% put in ~30% of HMRC tax receipts, it's a lot of dough and as such other countries want it and are actively trying to take it with specific tax policies targeted at high earners, why do you think @Nexxo is really going to France we really can't afford to lose them, their tax alone could fund the NHS, I'd say KK probably didn't go far enough, maybe there will be more in Nov. What effect did the bankers bonus cap have in reality, none at all, those boys and girls just moved (for tax purposes if not in actuality) and got the bonus paid elsewhere stuffing the coffers of another economy, whereas letting them have their cake and eat it here fills ours. It'd take me more than a few decades to put into the economy what they can do with one bonus. I've not heard anything that would suggest Starmer is going to do any better here, re instigate the cap and top rate big whoop, small beer compared to the rest of the package that was introduced that he'll want to keep. What surprises me is people are kicking up over that crap and no one is saying anything about the energy support, which is poor, IMO Truss should have borrowed even more, nationalised a producer and helped everyone in the process for a far longer term, then have the government reap the profits in the future when/if the world returns to normal rather than the chosen temporary fix, Labours plan here sounds good, though everyone sounds good when pitching eh The other stuff announced sounds good too, investment zones with targeted deregulation, reduced taxes and planning to spur businesses in areas of the country that need it, hope it works as intended to foster startup etc. Benefits crackdown, totally for that but that's coloured by half my family who could work but choose not, if they spent as much time studying and looking for work as they spend working out how to claim x,y or z they'd probably be in a better position than me, some might argue they are with free houses and cars. It will come to nothing, like the bankers etcs, these parasites will find ways and means of taking what they believe is rightfully theirs, to reach the same standard of living they'd have to jump into a job earning around 40k+ to live a similar lifestyle, so they're lifers now, we'll be supporting those feckers and their spawn for ever. The IR35 u turn IMO is bad but I say that from the perspective of being one of two in a large group of people doing what I do who pays full tax, when your mates are coining it in, but then I got caught being too 'tax efficient' in the past and paid the price so I'm just jealous, but it is such a lucrative scam Nothing to see here really, hope they don't flip flop due to reactions. let it ride, if you've not noticed I'm fiscally irresponsible and like a little gamble, I could be in power This support is in no way connected to my bonus being paid in USD shortly Will I vote for labour in the future, anything is possible, I sit and read the manifestos and pick what suits me and my family, this is typically conservative, though I did vote lib dem, what a waste of a vote that was.
I'm going to France because it is a country that still invests in health, social care and public infrastructure. And it really shows. Only a few weeks ago I was in Confolens --a small rural town in Poitou-Charentes, population 2,711, nothing special. It was clean. It had good, functioning public infrastructure. Wherever I drove (again, deep rural France) the roads were smooth, and had not a single pothole. Someone told me that when her husband had a heart attack, in a rural hamlet in the middle of nowhere, an ambulance was there within 20 minutes and had him in hospital in another 20. In Birmingham, you'd have to wait multiple hours. I don't care if I have to pay more taxes for that. What's the point in being personally well off but publicly impoverished? Besides, how is lowering the top rate of tax going to attract top earning global talent if you just cratered the Pound in the process? Unless you propose to pay them all in USD? Bad idea, actually. It didn't work before (which is why the UK gof rid of them) and for "deregulation" read: no environmental, consumer or worker protections. But it's your country --I'll be leaving soon. PS: say goodbye to your NHS, and hope that you can afford the kind of US-style private health insurance that takes you to the front of the queue of the few health professionals that you'll have left in the country.
Firstly, thanks for the detailed reply! I'm not going to do my usual trick of slicing it up and quote-replying it to death, 'cos I'm honestly trying to get better, but I wanted to throw a few things at the "we should wait and see" aspect. The problem with waiting-and-seeing is that the "seeing" part may very well involve watching the UK economy crash. Like, really crash. As in, everyone's pensions gone, hyperinflation, hoping that your barrow-load of fifty quid notes will reach the front of the queue at the bakers before it becomes too little to buy a loaf of bread, full-on Venezuela crash. Are the markets reacting irrationally? I'd argue not: they're reducing their exposure to risk, and a bunch of people smarter (or, at least, richer) than you and I have declared the UK economy and currency a risk. Which ain't great when the changes to policy were supposed to encourage growth... If the government has full faith in its plans, why didn't it announce them in full? (Because it hasn't actually finalised them yet, obviously.) Why didn't it allow the Office for Budget Responsibility to publish costings and forecasts? (Because it hasn't actually costed or forecast them yet, and if it did would find they're entirely unaffordable - meaning they're literally taking a "throw things at the wall and see what sticks" approach with the national economy.) Why are all major economists, up to and including the former leader of the Bank of England (and, given its move earlier this week, arguably the current leader of the Bank of England), saying it's a bad idea? (Citations: former BofE deputy governor Charlie Bean says the government has made "really stupid" decisions; other former BofE governor Mark Carney says the government is "undercutting" key economic institutions and "working at cross-purposes" against the Bank's responsibility to keep inflation at two per cent and described the tax cuts as "unfunded".) Is it maybe because it's a bad idea? I know that Brexit proved "we" didn't want to listen to experts any more, but if 99% of all doctors tell me drinking cyanide would be fatal, and then I drank a little bit anyway and got really really sick, I'm probably not going to down the bottle on the off chance they're wrong and it actually gives me superpowers. In related news:
Can't really answer any of that I'm not an economist but really its markets doing what they do, as an investor, all you ever see is knee jerk reaction to every bit of news going on around the world, you need nerves of steel. This blip will no doubt lead some to look at liquidity levels in the gilts market and some regulation as the dash for cash after a touch of sentiment-based panic would suggest that they are using some sketchy financial vehicles to make profits on these low risk investments beyond relying on the coupon value. regarding the economists having their 5 minute sound bite on tv, many have been in positions to effect change and help, in the past but stuck with the status quo, no radicals there, just doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result, this isn't working for anyone. With respects to the banks and undercutting, the Bank has already failed we should probably already have 4-5% to curb the portion of the economy, a lot of us here maybe, buying computer **** you don't really need to waste time that could be used being more productive elsewhere , but really nothing raising rates can do to fix inflation, the problem here is a difficult one, I wouldn't like to be in charge of fixing it, generally in a market where inflation is rising, the bank raises rates to curb it and cool every one off, this is typically when loads of cheap money has allowed people the flexibility to go yep, I'll have this, that and the next thing whilst demand outstrips supply rising prices and not give it a second thought as you can afford it via cheap credit, I mean yes this is the case for the housing market and that does need to be cooled off, thing is the inflation we are seeing is not some consumer led over confidence, not all of it at least, the bank instigating fiscal tightening, which has been its plan long before the fiscal event would do nothing to bring down the rising cost of essentials like fuel and food and just make it harder for everyone as this is not all domestically generated inflation that a change in our interest rate could effect, so a fair proportion of the population won't switch from spendy, spendy, to saving due to interest rate because you can't really save on the food/fuel essentials to live and the people that need support weren't likely the ones over consuming in the first place. The tax and NI cuts will help some at the lower end but yup perhaps it is not big enough assistance at the really low end, what would likely help more is a VAT cut. The borrowing for energy support will help bring that inflation down short term, but energy cost will still raise for many and its only temporary, of course this borrowing will ultimately increase inflation by devaluing the pound, can't win, the drubbing the pound is getting will impact our imports putting price up, leading to inflation, who has the answer, looking at rest of Europe not many. Will another party fix this, nope, too much global interdependencies, nothing you can do locally really that will have anything but a small effect without taking large steps, massive borrowing to get our own energy security sorted, bring generators back to the UK, introduce measures to help fund home insulation, solar which would foster an industry here as well as reduce our reliance on our energy network for example. This borrowing to fund a temporary fix is like having to use your credit card to do your weekly shop, when you are at that point, something is up, it is not the solution, you need to borrow to invest in measures, so you are not there again, Labour put out the right sort of sound bite for the media on this point but its all about implementation and what they actully mean here. The big question is how ukgov intend to settle the books for these adjustments and how long it'll take, I'm interested to see what comes in Nov, one thing is for certain, whatever is announced it can't be good, cuts and borrowing everywhere, essentially all they are doing at the moment is what the US has done, push up rates, print loads of money. It's working for US because the dollar is used all over the world for imports/exports and people are buying it up making it really strong, won't work for anyone else though but perhaps I don't have the vision, I'm an uneducated muppet on the internet All they can do is look at the books and get the red pen out, shrink the big ticket items regardless of whether they need more funding or not.
Oh, look, a U-turn. I'm shocked. Shocked! Well, not that shocked. 45p tax rate abolition abolished. Wonder what the next U-turn they definitely won't do will be?
