News Could the EU fines delay Vista?

Okay, well I'll agree that OS sales total 12.2B. Let’s break that down ruff estimate...

North America 4 billion
EU 4 billion
The rest 4 billion

Obviously that is a guess I don't work for Microsoft so there is no way for me too really know!

More to the point... What I was politely try to convey is that IF (big if) Microsoft wanted to make a point. It is capable of making a stand, and just not selling its OS in the EU. The EU being a legitimate body would then have to enforce copyright laws. Anyone with Vista who connected to windows update with an EU ip would have to be prosecuted. I make this point only to point out that it is a loose loose for Europe. I am NOT in anyway try to say America is better or anything like that... So no flag waving please!

Everyone in here is smart enough to know that if that scenario played out. The EU would back peddle way before an alternative could be introduced. Then Microsoft, In all honesty would be holding all the cards...

I really hope it doesn't come to this!!!

Also I think the core issue has been lost. The EU's complaint has nothing to do with IE or WMP being on the OS. The EU's Issue is that they are both CORE Components that cannot be removed. Unless you are a power user that hates M$ and has WAY too much free time.

All in all IMO the EU has bigger fish to fry...

SO Glad American Football IS BACK,
Glnsize
GO PATS!

 

Some of you keep saying this...but I still don't see why would it be true. There are already alternatives out there. No matter what you think, the EU existence and state of our economy doesn't depend solely on Microsoft. If they simply pulled Vista of the market, most people would simply stick to XP and slowly head towards other alternatives. No huge deal for EU economy...

On the other hand, it's not only the lost revenue which would hurt MS in that scenario. Is that, in the long term, they would throw 400 million of potential costumers to the hands of the competence. I know little of economics, but I'm pretty sure that 's the very definition of a Bad Idea(TM). Pull Vista out of EU, force 400m of people to go, sooner or later, to Linux and OS/X. MS would just create a 400m market for companies and developers to try and sell Linux products. Linux gaming becomes viable, OpenSource products get a boost (OpenOffice ***), etc. The main problem Linux faces on becoming a relevant alternative in the desktop segment, is a steep learning curve and lack of certain software (which is a chicken and egg scenario...there is less development because there is less market because it lacks software that doesn't get developed because...). MS pulling Vista out of the EU, suddenly removes both problems.

I bet that IBM, Novell, Red Hat, Canonical Ltd. etc are praying for this scenario to come true, but I guess MS knows better. Yeah, their revenue for Q04 2007 or something like that may not be much lower, but long term, they would turn a marginal and consumer-unfriendly alternative into a widespread, free and viable opponent.

Despite what many people seem to think, this is not mayor news here. Nobody is much concerned at all, and you can bet the EU is frying bigger fish every day. This is just one of the many anti monopolistic actions the EU regularly takes. This is a big deal mostly in tech sites and a not-so-big issue on tech/economy pages of the newspapers.

Because Apple doesn't have a near monopoly in OS sales, whatever they choose to do with OS/X has a negligible impact on the state of the worlds software.

But as you may, or may not know Apple is being watched very closely by the EU and french government regarding iTunes, it's DRM and the near monopolistic position they have in the portable music market. And this isn't limited to American corps. European energy providers, telco companies and many others have been fined (or are being watched) before.

You may or may not agree with EU anti-monopoly politics, but at least, they are consistent. They aren't a bunch of nerds that strike MS from their parent's basement just because they are in some anti-american crusade. But if MS, Apple or Ford want to sell their products here, they have to comply with EU rules.

 

@ Iago:

 

That sir, is called favoritism. Regaurdless of market share all companies that produce and market an operating system, or other product for that matter, should be held to the same standards as every other OS producing company. To not do so is unfair to one being prosecuted.

That being said I wonder if Apple could afford to start selling its OS piece-meal just for the EU countries? I know their iPod sales and iTunes sales are HUGE but could they offset the additional production costs if Apple had to do the same as MS?

Also, how much are the additional production costs for EU Windows versions?

But like others have said before its quite possible the EU was looking for a pocketbook to raid and saw MS as the best one in the bunch.

 

It's not favouritism, it's anti-monopoly practises. Monopolies are held to different standards to non-monopolies because governemnts don't want private monopolies on things generally.

I don't get why people are so against anti-monopoly practises, I mean, they exist to benefit us citizens and consumers, and yet people rally hard aganist them. Crazy.

 

Apples OS comes with the same pre-loaded garbage as MS's OS but I don't see the EU jumping Apples **** and making them piece meal their OS and levy huge fines against them. Certainly seems like theirs a bit of favoritism to me. Then again maybe socialists have a different view/definition of favoritism? *shurgs*

Whats good for the goose is good for the gander no? Or is Apple the exception because it gleans such a small market share that to hold them to the same standards as other OS distributors would be "unfair"? BS! Apple's the same as MS with only difference being market share. Nothing else. If Apple had a chance they'd do just as MS.


P.S. In case anyone was wondering or didn't know: http://dictionary.reference.com/search?q=favoritism

 

Yes, Apples OS comes with things MS can't get away with, that's because Apple OS fills less then 10% of the market(IIRC) and Microsofts fills the majority. This is what anti-monopoly laws are for. They ensure that monopolistic companies don't have too many advantages over competitors. They are for the consumers good, and unless you are at the head of a monopoly, or involved at some high level in one, you're complaining about that which benefits you.

And it isn't favourtism because the EU are not favouring Apple, they're just limiting Microsoft.

 

I know many americans use *socialist* as some kind of despective term...but actually, there's little socialism in EU's Commision or Parlament decisions, don't know why you keep using the term..except if you mean it as an insult, wich doesn't make much sense in the context of this discussion.

I'm afraid you are being argumentative for the sake of it. Anti-trust laws aren't an EU invention. USA has lots of experience with monopolies and anti-monopoly laws and directives. IIRC, there was some huge american telecomunications company (was it Bell? )that was broken in several smaller companies due to monopolistic considerations (but I may be wrong). And not so long ago (3-4 years? ) there were many articles and talks about Microsoft suffering the same fate.

This is not a problem of an anti MS measure. It's just that monopolies aren't
very popular here. If it were Linux that had 90% of the desktop market share, you can be sure the marketing and developement decisions of Novell would suffer a stronger scrutiny. But it's not Novell who has that 90% market share, it's MS. Apple's OS isn't targeted by anti-monopoly lawas, 'cause Apple doesn't have an OS monopoly. MS Zune's mp3 player and music store won't be targeted by the EU as long as they don't top the iPod and become a new monopoly. It isn't that difficult to understand...

Btw, I don't necesarily agree with fining MS because of IE and WMP. It's my idea than a media player and internet browser are, as today, an integral part of any OS, given the weight of media files and internet applications in a day to day usage. I neither agree with Apple fines regarding iTunes...it doesn't make sense to penalize success. BUT, I don't think neither than the EU is picking specifically on MS just because they are american or because commisioners don't like Bill Gates...but just because they'd like a much more open playing field for consumers, because competence favors consumers and developement, or because MS is known to have used monopolistic practices (free IE, OEM preassure to put Windows on every box, etc.) in the not so distant past, and the EU doesn't want it to repeat. And despite some claims, I'm 100% sure that the total amount of € coming from MS fines is quite irrelevant in the context of EU fundings.

 

Spec,

By limiting one corporation in a market and not all you, being the EU, are showing bias, which I understand differs in context to favoritism so excuse me for the incorrect term previously.

 

So punish those who make a product or convince the buying public that their product is superior to all others is what your saying?

I'm not for a monopoly on any one product or market sector I just want to see all business subject to the same rules as every other company in a sector. Whether that be widget's or nonwidgets. If MS has to piece meal their OS then so should every other OS distributor.

 

No. As a matter of fact, I said in my post that I don't necessarily agree with the EU regarding Apple as fining them is akin to punishing comercial success, and I hardly see in what monopolistic practices have they engaged.

But (and bear in mind that I'm an echonomics analphabet) with a free market, monopolies are bound to happen. If you regulate them, you no longer have a truly free market and you punish exceptional success. If you don't, developement stagnates, and consumers end up paying abusibe prices. I'm for regulations, as I think it's the lesser of two evils, but as far as I know, those regulations are in place in most economies, including USA (you do have anti-trust laws, don't you? ). That the EU watches carefully monopolies (real or de facto ) shouldn't surprise anybody, but as it happens that there are two american companies being targeted, we have a surge of american/neocon/ultraliberal protests in every tech forum.

Again, bear in mind that Apple and MS are just 2 of several companies being targeted in this precise moment by the EU due to anti-competence practices, just like E.On (Germany), Mittal (India), Arcelor, Gas Natural and Endesa (Spain) or Banco di Labboro (Italy) just to name a few.

Wether those politics on itself are good or not, is debatable, but turning this into a national pride issue or accusing the EU of hating Microsoft sounds a bit childy (childiss? ) to me.

Sorry for the grammar and spelling mistakes, I don't have my spell checker right now.

 

Childish, is the term you're looking for Iago, and I'd agree with that last part

 

It's nothing to do with national pride, although I am very proud of my country. But the EU, IMHO, came across as very bias in that it chose to simply limit MS instead of all commercial OS distributors. The fines do not upset me, as MS does have money to pay, so much as the first.

I regret the socialist comment after rereading that post and do not mean to come across as childish. Just defending a corporation who I think has done more good than harm with their OS and really did not deserve to be punished for its good business acumen(SP?).

With that I'll retire from the argument and pray the EU makes better decision in the future.

 

I don't mean this in a negative way, but merely an informational one, just to clear up something you said Iago.

The European Union and just about every major member state that I can think of is the shining beacon of socialism in the world today, and for that matter, of all of history. Socialized-everything, extremely pro-labor, which has led to a shift away, culturally, from capitalist ideals. That's an undeniable fact.

Now personally, I prefer societies that focus on enrichment, working hard, improving lifestyles for everybody willing to work, and total personal responsibility. Then again, I'm also not religious at all, but I don't look down my nose on my neighbors that hit the church every Sunday, either. Europeans obviously like their lifestyles (except for the unemployed) or they'd be clamoring for change instead of throwing riots in Paris when sacred-cow labor laws get changed. I can respect that; it must be nice getting months off from work in Finland or where ever when you pop out a baby and not having to concern ones self over where to put money for retirement or which medical plan fits them best out of hundreds, or thousands, of potential plans that'd be out on a free market (as our senior citizens just had to sort of do in a sort of strange Medicare Part-D thing; typical government, the socialist aspect of tax money spent but without dumping the pain of the free market!). In my own post, I only pointed out that it costs Europe currently a 1% GDP growth rate penalty, which if it isnt worked on will result in America and Europe looking like two radically different places within a few decades, but European's like their lifestyle so it couldn't be all bad, thats for sure!

But yeah. And I'd also not be surprised if a MS pull-out of Europe didn't, over the course of years, plaster on a few points to the CPI or a percentage point or two whacked off of what would be GDP growth caused by the trouble of transition. That doesn't sound like much, but for the couple thousand MS employees that would simply find other work, that'd mean easily a million Europeans unemployed. (Bigger impact than just tech sector) Oh, and Bell did get broke up, and I don't know if its looking through history with rose-tinted glasses or what but most older folks I know swear that Bell's service was light-years ahead of what its smoldering remnants offered, and Bell Labs Research had a cell phone prototype in like what, the 50s? It's bust-up might've been necessary, probably was, but theres also a chance we really screwed up in doing so too. Never will know now.

We seem to be in final agreement though; Vista will arrive in the EU, EU may fine it, and life will continue as it always has. Heck, MS might as well file in its next quarterly report the creation of a "EU Antitrust Fine Fund" just to be safe

 

Not trying to be argumentative...I just find it an interesting topic

I'll just say that things aren't as *socialized* here as you presume. I guess it depends on which specific country are you talking about, but in general terms, what we do have in Europe is not socialism, but "welfare state". I'd leave it as that, just different lifestyles and avoid better/worse comparisons.

I still don't see the apocalypse coming just because MS pulls Vista out

Most people are used to Windows and Office, but there's little most companies do now with it, that couldn't be done just as fine with Linux and OpenOffice. No company is going to take the first step just for the sake of it, but they knew they'll have no other option in 3-5 years, they'd simply take it slowly, but will prepare themselves for the change.

About the million MS employees losing their jobs...actually that reinforces my point. MS pulling Vista out of EU means that sooner or later, they would have to leave EU entirely (they won't expect to sell many Office Vista copies). That's a lot of mony invested on regional divisions, lot of revenue lost, lots of indemnizations to pay...in short, I don't see it viable at all.

What, IMO, you fail to see is that the corporate environment is very, very slow to adopt changes in technology. A Vista pull-out would affect home users much more than corporations, at least short-term. There are still many workstations in my office with W2000, and some server with NT, and nobody is in a hurry to change them, 'cause they work just fine. Vista delays are irrelevant and a potential pull-out wouldn't mean much in corporations until several years from now. With several years ahead, any company can teach it's employees a new environment.

As I said, I don't know enough of that matter to make valid corporations. That isn't my point, but that even in the "shining beacon of free market" (if I can borrow your expression) there are laws that deal with monopolies and actions have been taken in the past, they aren't a socialism invention nor an EU exclusive. And it's not just MS that's suffering them, but many other corps and even goverments (my own gv. is likely going to get fined very soon because of anti-competence practices and I don't think it's just because there are spanish haters in the Commision).

Exactly. MS, despite being huge, is just a corporation. They live to make money and IMO, they have a lot to lose by abandoning half of the developed world's consumers.

Now, if I'm wrong... interesting times lay ahead...should I go for Apple or Linux?

 

"The break up of AT&T was initiated in 1974 by the U.S. Department of Justice anti-trust suit against the telephone monopoly" http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bell_System_Divestiture