1. This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Learn More.

Columns The sky is falling

Discussion in 'Article Discussion' started by Tim S, 2 Feb 2008.

  1. Cthippo

    Cthippo Can't mod my way out of a paper bag

    Joined:
    7 Aug 2005
    Posts:
    6,785
    Likes Received:
    103

    So basically you're arguing that all people want is the same old crap. I read that as saying "we can't try anything innvative because the investment is too large to take a risk. The problem is that so much of gaming IS the same crap, and it's not somthing that as many poeple are willing to pay for. As I see it, if we have gotten to that point, then the industry IS dying because it cannot adapt. If all the industry can promise is more of the same with shinier graphics, then why bother spending the money?

    Same issue, if the industry only wants to make games that will sell 500,000 copies in the fiorst 3 monthst, then it's excluding a rather large customer base who want somthing different. Same response, if it's more of the same thn I will continue to pass.

    As you point out, there are a lot of gamers out there who can afford new AAA games. You're coming to the conclusion that they are not buying them because they are pirating them. To some extent that may be true, but I think to a greater extent it's because people don't find them to be worth the money. If it's just a shinier version of last years game with nothing else really new, why buy it? Just to keep the industry in business? I don't think so.



    Some of which also sold very very well. If, according to your theory, the primary cause of low sales is piracy, why is this?

    Again, if you're willing to spend money just to support the industry, then more power to you. For me, and I think a lot of others, they will get my money only if the produce things that I want to play. I'll gladly keep plunking down money on HL2 expansions because I really enjoy them. They're innovative, story driven and very enjoyable. The other indistinguished crap? Not worth my time and money.
     
  2. timmehtimmeh

    timmehtimmeh Minimodder

    Joined:
    2 Jan 2005
    Posts:
    422
    Likes Received:
    7
    Good read, thankyou.

    Just one thing, does Bret ever do a positive article?
     
  3. Lurks

    Lurks What's a Dremel?

    Joined:
    2 Feb 2008
    Posts:
    10
    Likes Received:
    0
    Well I'm sorry you felt it was a personal attack. Perhaps on reflection I've been too argumentative. I wouldn't say I was enraged but I was certainly highly irritated so I apologise.

    All due respect, but I can't find any mention of you on google on any publication other than this web site. Which was, until quite recently, basically a hobbyists enthusiast web site. A very good one, and one I know the founders/owners and appreciate the work

    I've spent about 15 years in the games industry. About half of that as a journalist and I *do* appear on Google. If you want to push the issue I'll tell you via PM but I'd rather let my statements stand for themselves. I don't see why I should be subject to more scrutiny than the legions of other posters here. Or is it just because they agree with you? :)

    Precisely. A potential publisher. Or are they not part of the games industry? Let me remind you about why that fact is or is not relevant. The threat to PC gaming is if games aren't selling. You're kind of saying that PC gaming is doing fine because that study doesn't cover digital distribution. Then later on you woe-is-me about PC gaming anyway which makes it a little hard to distill your point but ultimately if DD was doing really well, then publishers would be very keen to keep doing PC games. But that's not actually the case.

    There's a very real feeling emerging that even if they broke even it would be better not to do the PC version because some people might just pirate on the PC rather than buy the console version.

    The bottom line is that there's a lot of data for retail because that industry is well developed. Actual figures are generally kept secret also, depending on territory but again if you're in the industry you gain access to them. Take a look at the UK's all-format chart from Chart-Track. This is by SKU.

    http://www.chart-track.co.uk/index.jsp?c=p/software/uk/latest/index_test.jsp&ct=110032

    This tells you that in games retail in the UK the PC has one title in the entire top 40 best selling games at retail. This is a diabolical situation and unfortunately it's not elevated magically to some secret game selling utopia by the secret numbers of games sold via digital distribution.

    Sure but you spent a lot of your time making conspiratorial conclusions just because these numbers aren't public. I fail to see how that is an important corner of the whole issue. I appreciate you'd like to know. And so would your readers. But the individual companies don't want to tell you and they have their reasons.

    Digital distribution share of PC entertainment software sales, not Steam. It's an internal EA figure, I don't know how they got it but it's been leaked fairly widely. If you call up some actual journalists in the games industry who comment on such things they'll most likely also be familiar with that. Could EA's figure be wrong? Maybe, probably, but I expect it's in the ballpark. In a previous job I had access to some information on Steam sales. And in my current job I've spoken to publishers who have described how Steam is doing for them. No specifics but 'not significant' would be a reasonable summary.

    Well you know, this is pretty much journalist 101 stuff I have to say. NPD is a market research outfit specifically aimed at retail. You may as well take umbrance at the lack of <BLINK> tags saying "THIS DOESN'T INCLUDE STEAM" at the top of Chart-Trakc or "THIS DOESN'T INCLUDE DELL" in GfK's retail reports. These market research people cover a sector, that's what they talk about. It's only inexpert viewers coming in afterwards that decided to slam them because shacknews did a story about it.

    Conversely you'd be absolutely amazed at how many web writers tell me that they're respected journalists. :)

    Well that's my beef really, I don't think this is researched. You don't actually say much other than you couldn't find figures and then launch into a whole rhetoric about how this is symptomatic of the industry wanting to fail and then this orwellian stuff about giant conglomerates. Did you talk to any publishers? Those evil conglomerate types? You could maybe get a quote from them on how they view the PC games sector and what plans they have.

    It'd be really *very* interesting if some of you journalists asked the hard questions which I cannot in my professional capacity, such as calling up Microsoft and asking them to clarify their support for PC gaming and/or the Xbox 360 and how they came to decide that Halo Wars would not end up being a PC game. I think that would be very enlightening if you pressed hard enough.

    Anyway, you seem like a reasonable bloke. The reason I'm taking the time here is because I think you're essentially barking up the wrong tree. Writers like you, and sites like this, are places that the industry can come read columns and try understand the PC gaming market a bit better. And that needs to happen.

    And, as your forums have so far demonstrated to me with frightening clarity, PC gamers could also do with understanding how the games industry works. So far I've seen everything from a elementary failure to comprehend the machanisms of capitalism through to the same sorts of extremist left 'information wants to be free' stuff in order to justify piracy as you see in the MP3 downloading crowd.

    I just want to add to this chap Cthippo who incidentally claimed that some PC games sold very well. Very few games world wide on PC sell very well and pretty much none that you'd call 'core games'. In the UK the situation is disasterous. Nothing sells but Football Manager. There isn't a single PC AAA title from the boom season still in the all-formats top 40 chart now. Not one. Two years ago they'd be several in the top ten.

    Well, that's not entirely how I view it. We each bought SupCom:FA, CoD4, Crysis and some other game I forget. All leading lights of PC games. All great games. All fo which we intend to play and having bought a copy will kind of ensure that we do. And the industry being what it is there wont be any more decent PC games until the summer so we've got plenty of time eh?

    I don't think you could say that it was foolish for us to buy those games. There is an element of concious support there but mostly just by ensuring we didn't go and pirate those games because it's oh so easy to do. That's my point.
     
    Last edited: 3 Feb 2008
  4. EssentialParadox

    EssentialParadox What's a Dremel?

    Joined:
    3 Feb 2008
    Posts:
    1
    Likes Received:
    0
    Call of Duty 4 is the best game of last year.
    Xbox 360, Wii, and soon PS3 all have options for indie developers to release games to the platforms.
    I fear piracy is significantly more prominent than you allude.
    And Crytek just announced a cross-platform version of the new Crysis engine.

    So when did you write this article? — 2004 and just decided to post it today?
     
  5. Da Dego

    Da Dego Brett Thomas

    Joined:
    17 Aug 2004
    Posts:
    3,913
    Likes Received:
    1
    An interesting perspective, Lurks.
    The difference is, nobody here is stating a professional understanding of the market. :) You bet, that comes under scrutiny - it would be silly not to.
    I can understand why you'd state that my point is cloudy. So allow me to clarify my position:

    I do not consider Mark Rein to be any old guy. He releases a statement just a couple days after this study, using it as his backup that consoles are killing the PC industry. If the PC market wants to look for why there are flagging sales in the proper retail market, I think that they should look at the games they're releasing. It's much like the music industry: The labels say 'sales are declining' while people everywhere say 'We're sick of the same old teen-pop trash.' Even the teens. The labels changed the industry to suit a fickle but huge demographic, trying to exploit it for every quick dime it was worth - but in that, they earned the ire of the rest of the world. Now, their target demographic has changed, too - and they're out in the cold. But rather than say "Why?", they say "pirates."

    Just like the recording industry, the software industry is now looking for scapegoats in my opinion. "The games aren't selling on PC." "But...consoles are selling." One could say that consoles are tapping into the PC - it's one way to read the figures, if you withhold certain info. But another view could and maybe should be 'The PC market has moved away from us. Why?'

    Consoles have a barrier of entry. A huge one, at that. You can only buy in with significant investment - so the only games out there are produced by the same publishers that many PC gamers are saying "We're sick of this drivel." When it's the only option, people will buy it - they want to play in their living rooms. But if you want to know why the Wii is so damn red hot, or the Nintendo DS, it's because not every game out there is produced by EA, THQ, etc. The real figures don't lie - gamers want more variety. Even console gamers.

    Instead, the industry at large, or at least some pretty big head honchos for it, are saying "PCs are being killed by consoles." They're not trying to say "Why are we off the mark?". They're excusing the behaviour. And if you look, it's the heads of the big boys that are doing it.

    My argument is that the study doesn't look where PC gaming has MOVED. We ignore digital distrib. We ignore independent delivery. We ignore everything aside from retail brick and mortar sales, and then we put true market figureheads up there telling us how this exact study means that PC gaming is dying.
    Again, I'd hardly call Mark Rein 'inexpert'.

    The figure is important not even so much for the number itself but for the truth in disclosure. If you're going to comment publicly on PC sales, the public expects that you are going to count PC sales - not your version of it. That's like the Record companies saying "music sales are down" when iTunes has sold over two billion songs - simply because they only count CDs.
    And this is why I'd love to talk to you in a different format after this. :) If there's info that an insider wishes people would ask, I'd love to go ask it. You may very well have some pretty riveting questions and I'm happy to go pursue some more ideas. However, I will put out there that we DO ask those types of questions (though not that specifically!)...just often we get a lot of "no comment." You mention you've been in journalism - you know the drill. You can only push so hard before you lose the contact.
    Judging by the interest in this column, I think you're right - a proper follow-up article may be warranted here. In a column, I'm allowed to paint the picture of the world as I see it now...which involves trying very hard in several places to get some digital distrib ideas. But a big part of this column was how the industry presents itself - so I am using the things they bring to us intentionally, rather than chasing down someone to spin me a prettier story. However, I concede your point here overall and I think that, though my view is what it is, I can look into it from a publishing angle and do a follow up.


    At the end of the day, though, you have to understand - I'm a gamer, and often my views are from a consumer perspective with a journalist's information gathering techniques. When I write these columns, I speak as an open letter from the consumers - who, as you can see, largely see things here. A view which you call in one post 'uneducated'. Is this how the industry sees us? We're not buying things because we're 'uneducated'? Are our opinions that worthless?

    It's my hope that people like you DO see this. DO challenge it. TELL US how it's different. And then follow through with something we can see. I'm glad if this article ruffles the feathers of a few in the industry - it means the industry is listening to someone, cause it sure isn't listening to the readers of my columns.

    If you've read my work before, you'll see that I took a similar approach with NVidia after the Vista debacle. Once you get through all the fluffy hearts and kittens of PR and get down to it, there was a lack of true support - the interest was elsewhere. By writing my column against them, I had their driver team on the phone 2 days later. They didn't listen to the pissed off consumers, but when one of those pissed off consumers was able to shout loud enough for people to hear, they had to respond.

    Do you know how many angry people there are at the games industry? The people who hate the Bioware buyout ALONE on this forum is troubling. But their sales figures AREN'T being listened to. In the end, it DOES come down to business - I'm not stupid and I do understand that point. But there's business, and then there's BAD business. People are starting to see the patterns of the latter. And even hitting the industry in the wallet is not inducing change. People - no, CUSTOMERS - are speaking...and nobody is listening.

    My column, as orwellian as it is (I tend to do that to emphasise a point and encourage consumer/industry action - illustrate an endpoint on the line and people start tracing back and saying "oh, yeah...") is stating just that. One of the biggest industry heads is taking this single study, as incomplete as it is in the big picture, and spinning it just as bad or worse than ShackNews or anyone else. He's using it to explain a bigger shift to consoles. He's used piracy to explain that, too. He uses anything he can, actually. He is showing us that this industry, at least the groups doing all the buying and M&A, are abandoning us.

    Eventually, SOMEONE needs to listen to the consumer. We're not buying PC games because we're buying console? No - we're not buying PC games because most aren't worth buying. The few top games of 07 are not the only things lining those retail shelves, and they're not enough to save it. As great as 07 was, there was also a whole lot of crap. A WHOLE lot.

    Of course the industry wants PC games to survive. But the industry wants PC gaming to survive on ITS terms. Multi-platform ports and infinite sequels are becoming the norm, we feel. Piracy preventions that prevent legal users from playing games while pirates have no trouble. Eight hour gameplay for $50. Little replay value. Big budget, low delivery. This is what your consumers see you as.

    And that's why I write what I do - so you can answer to it. So you can choose to say "hey, I saw you. I disagree." So you can give us your reasons and tell us why it is different and if you agree with ANY of it, maybe how you can help change it.

    Or, barring anyone from the industry listening, at least I can remind a consumer base that they're not alone in feeling abandoned, and we can all go support our favourite indy developers and buy it online. And Mark Rein and others can ignore those figures and moves, slide over to console only, and we can get a whole new crop of PC developers. Just like the early 90s when Bethesda and SSR and id sprung up. It's not doom and gloom, it's the end of one era.



    Sorry, that turned into a little rant of its own, but I think it's worth posting anyhow - we'll move back on to the discussion now. :) Actually, I'll take you up on that PM offer - not because I'm scrutinizing, but because I want to know just whose feathers I've ruffled - and I want to follow up on those other questions and talk with you about a follow-up that you would see as a fair approach. I could do that as a proper article, as opposed to a column where I'm inclined and permitted to put my view into words.
     
    Last edited: 3 Feb 2008
  6. specofdust

    specofdust Banned

    Joined:
    26 Feb 2005
    Posts:
    9,571
    Likes Received:
    168
    Umm, read the article again EssentialParadox. He's not arguing that PC gaming sucks, he's arguing against the very low percentage figure that was reported regarding PC games market share.
     
  7. Trefarm

    Trefarm No matter what... It's all good

    Joined:
    16 Dec 2007
    Posts:
    139
    Likes Received:
    2
    Thanks to both Da Dego & Lurks for your posts...

    I found both your takes on this issue good food for thought...

    My own grasp of the entire concept is shaky and Naive prehaps but surely the 'Games Industry' just has to accept like many industries before (From the likes of Heavy manufacturing to telecoms) the the golden era of massive profitability is gone never to return...

    Business models are not eternal and must constantly evolve to match market conditions but with an increasing conglomeration it becomes ever more apparent that only one avenue is being taken... is it the right one? I only know that from my perspective as a gamer I can see the thin end of the wedge approaching...

    The argument that eventually pushing profitability over and above sustainability will have serious repercussions is one that strikes a chord with me, again I know thats a naive view point but it is my opinion... maybe when it's a widely held one some Industry Figures may pay attention to it?
     
    Last edited: 3 Feb 2008
  8. Cthippo

    Cthippo Can't mod my way out of a paper bag

    Joined:
    7 Aug 2005
    Posts:
    6,785
    Likes Received:
    103
    I guess it depends on what you call "selling well". If it takes a million units in the first 3 months (or more) ala Crysis, then no, not too many games are selling to that level. Looking at the Chart Track list, I find it interesting how many games on that list are not what I would consider To pevel games or even ones that are competition for the PC. I doubt we'll ever see "Mario & Sonic at the Olympics" (#1) or "DR KAWASHIMA'S BRAIN TRAINING" (#5) or NEW SUPER MARIO BROS. (#8) as Bit's GOTY. Sure, some of us may play them when we have a few mates over, but they are not serious games. I don't think anyone here is going to pass up up a copy of Crysis or SupCom to get "BIG BRAIN ACADEMY: WII DEGREE" (#13). These games represent not competition so much as an enirely new market that did not exist 5 years ago.

    on a more fundamental level, I think your views represent those of the industry. You're putting out huge blockbuster games that cost millions upon millions to make, and when they don't sell millions upon millions of copies like they did in the past you assume people aren't buying them because they are pirating them. To some extent that may be true, but have you considered the possibility that people aren't buying them because they don't want them? Or perhaps that they don't want them on the terms that you are offering them (oppressive copy protection, in-game ads, $50 plus pricetags)? I think the industry as a whole has forgotten that people have a choice, and they they can choose to not play games until somthing they actually want comes along.

    Lets take a look at what did sell, eh?

    1. World of Warcraft: Burning Crusade* – Vivendi (Blizzard) – 2.25 million
    2. World of Warcraft – Vivendi (Blizzard) – 914K
    3. The Sims 2 Seasons Expansion Pack – Electronic Arts – 433K
    4. Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare* – Activision – 383K
    5. Command & Conquer 3: Tiberium Wars* – Electronic Arts – 343K
    6. Sim City 4 Deluxe – Electronic Arts – 284K
    7. The Sims 2 – Electronic Arts – 281K
    8. The Sims 2 Bon Voyage Expansion Pack – Electronic Arts – 271K
    9. Age of Empires III – Microsoft – 259K
    10. The Sims 2 Pets Expansion Pack – Electronic Arts – 236K

    So, we have a bit over 3 million for WOW, 1.5 million for the Sims, and under a million for everything else combined, all of which were sequels. Granted there are somewhat different distribution models at work here, but I think this shows a shifting customer interest away from "more of the same" to new technologies that are incompatible with the industry's old business model.
     
  9. markkleb

    markkleb What's a Dremel?

    Joined:
    25 Jan 2008
    Posts:
    22
    Likes Received:
    0
    wow! you guys must really love to type.
     
  10. CowBlazed

    CowBlazed What's a Dremel?

    Joined:
    9 Dec 2005
    Posts:
    254
    Likes Received:
    0
    Hey Lurks, did you ever think for a second that maybe the publishers are wrong? Why should all they care about is the first month or 2 of sales? This isn't the movie industry where the movies is only in theatres for a few weeks, this is a game release and people aren't going to be buying multiple games every month.

    I'm a student in game design myself and hope to soon be in the industry, and let me tell you I haven't met one person that works in the industry that actually likes their publishers, not one. Why? Because what do the publishers demand? More of the same constantly, every game pitch has to be backed up with other simmilar games that have done well financialy (ie sold in the first months) and creative ideas that would set them apart are constantly being cut and thrown out for mainstream ones. This watering down of all games not just PC games as a whole is a big problem.

    I also love how you say you bought all those games and don't even get around to playing them. Yea because thats how your real consumer does things right? Buy a bunch of big titles for the full release price of $60+ so that you can not even get around to playing half of them. I rarely buy games at their full retail price or near their release dates, because I just can't justify spending that much money on a game very often. When I do, you bet its going to be a game packed with value. The last 2 games I've bought for full retail price are Orange Box and Oblivion.

    Real people buy games on their own terms, not on what the industry wants them to do. If the majority of the industry had it their way we'd all be playing Enter the Matrix and Beowulf movie games and crappy emulated PC ports over and over.
     
    Last edited: 4 Feb 2008
  11. Lurks

    Lurks What's a Dremel?

    Joined:
    2 Feb 2008
    Posts:
    10
    Likes Received:
    0
    Hey there, I just want to cut down to this bit for starters.

    No, that's quite right. I guess I just felt there ought to be a bit of a difference when you're front page column on a well respected PC enthusiast site. Which may or may not be justified but either way the goal was obviously to stimulate debate and I'd say you hit the jackpot there :)

    I do write from the point of view of a gamer too, just not on pro stuff. Probably going to regret this here's an example on the very subject: http://www.electricdeath.com/blog/1230

    Sure, look I agree but I wouldn't call me the guy you need to tell this stuff because you're preaching to the choir! You have a much better voice than I do but I do think that the industry might take the criticisms a bit more seriously on the stuff they do get wrong, and there's a lot, without the generic demonisation of game publishers.

    If I had some magic way to make game publishers listen... but they're big companies and they have structures which just don't lend themselves to some big flash of light revelation about how something is actually a genuinely bad idea. You mention PC game copy protection and I'd call that a prime example too. But equally, and that above thread I linked is a good example, there's a real lack of understanding from gamers about what it is that game publishers DO apart from being the bogeyman when stuff isn't quite right.

    That's journalism in action alright. There's a bit difference between calling out companies and their products directly and talking about stuff generically though. Those companies will be looking out for what sites like this are saying and they'll be damn interested in fighting fires. I'm not sure the games industry will get motivated by the column though. I did because I'm in the industry and I'm a gamer and PC enthusiast, which is why I read Bit-tech. A lot of the stuff you're unhappy about, well we're unhappy about, is ultimately down to the corporate suits who are barely aware that they work in an entertainment industry.

    Skirting close to pet beef. Bioware... and the dumbing down of games in general for the mass market. I hear it. It'd be great if PC gaming stayed around just to be the last bastion of intelligent non-pandering games as it has been for many years. Unfortunately sales is sales. When it costs millions to make a game, you have to maximise sales. So your PC version will show up but it wont be the game you wanted it to be. Fans of System Shock 2 will know that from playing Bioshock only too well. Hopefully it doesn't ruin the game for you but that's the kind of nature of the business really. If you're a game dev, do you make some intricate game which 200,000 people will love you for or do you try take your whole vision to millions of people and make some compromises to make it more accessible. It's going to annoy us but you can see why they do it right? It's not just about the money. Sometimes making things more accessible is a good thing. Sometimes it tears up the very essence of what made something good in the first place.

    As for EA buying Bioware. I don't think there's clear evidence it's a terrible thing, yet. Plenty of great studios are owned by EA. And, to be frank, Bioware was doing a great job of pissing on their own legacy all by themselves without EA's help... I'd be more concerned about Pandemic if anything. I've started to rant haven't I. Buggery.

    At the risk of getting circular. You say sales figures aren't being listened to because digital distribution isn't being counted. But it is. I mean what game publisher wont know how many games they're selling via DD? As far as game publishers are concerned, business is booming. Sales are going through the roof. It's just not on the PC. Why are these problems on the PC and not on consoles?

    Hang on a mo. Mark Rein is not one of the biggest industry heads. He's just a guy at one game developer who is unusually forthright with opinions and gets a bunch of press as a result. I like Mark, especially having witnessed how upset he gets when he gets repeatedly sniped on ctf_face :) But I don't think you necessarily should put 100% stock in what he says as an industry leader. In this case, let's be honest, a reasonable factor in UT3 not selling that great is because it's not that good. You get this a lot with game developers. You have to appreciate they've lived and breathed something for years, they have to believe in it and often appear almost religious in self belief that it could be anything other than their game not being that great. It's a very difficult thing to understand unless you can imagine basically working on making something for two years of your life.

    It's a shame more people in the industry don't talk more about the issues but you know, companies in the end are fearful of saying things. Statements in public need to be cleared and then they turn into something that isn't very interesting anyway. My own company is a nightmare like that. I'd be glad people like Mark Rein and Jeff Minter exist to brighten up the place and provide a bit of genuine developer insight but he's a guy with an agenda and a world-view perspective which you need to appreciate to put his statements in the right context. I loved to read the Yak's hissy fit about how people have no taste on Xbox Live Arcade because they were downloading Frogger instead of Space Giraffe. But, you know, you can understand why he says that :)

    Sure, there's a lot of crap. I'd love to be drawn on what's wrong with game development and publishing, and there is a hell of a lot that's wrong but let's stick with the script. The few top games of 07 just didn't sell very well on PC. The good games, not the crap ones. So, as I said earlier, what is the conclusion. Either a) PC gamers have much higher standards than anyone else and even 'great' games aren't worth buying because the the bum-rays of jebus himself did not shine out from the DVD case or... b) PC gamers don't buy crap games but they don't buy guy games either. They pirate them. Which is more likely? Is there some explanation I have left out? It's certainly not that PC gamers are buying via Steam and the industry just, you know, forgot to count them.

    In fact I think I might even argue in many respects PC gamers have *worse* taste collectively. The excitement about Crysis being the best example. Even in a favorite genre of mine, World in Combat got universally high scores despite being a seriously unfun ridiculously shoddy derivative RTS game but with some flash graphics on top. Meanwhile SupCom:FA, the best RTS game the world has ever seen, goes by with barely a fizzle. People are idiots!

    S'alright mate. We all love a good rant :) Based in the US from your title? Shame, I'll be by the office next couple of weeks.
     
  12. Lurks

    Lurks What's a Dremel?

    Joined:
    2 Feb 2008
    Posts:
    10
    Likes Received:
    0
    My God, only all the freaking time. Are you perchance mistaking me trying to correct some misconceptions about the role of publishers with being a publishing industry apologist? Can't we be just a little more complex than that?

    Rock and a hard place. If I explain this to you that makes me some kind of publisher whore and you'll go and reply completely misunderstanding anything I said and attack me on some sort of tangent?

    Well, since I haven't had the will to live completely beaten from my body I'll give it a go anyway.

    If you look at sales charts for games they essentially drop down to something like 3 digits of units sold a week after the peak unless there's a good reason such as being a platform hero title or an unusually long-period seller such as, for example on the PC, Football Manager. What this means is that for most games, almost all of them in fact, the absolute lion's share of the revenue that comes from them ends up coming in from the first weeks on sale. There's also a cost in recouping your investment later on down the line. $10 in one year is not worth $10 now. The longer it takes to get back your money, the more money you need to get back to break even. It's worth the interest it cost to front the money or rather the expectation that you can use that revenue at least as effectively as investing elsewhere.

    It's all generally factored into the business plan when publishing a game. Including the eventual progress of the game to budget, bundles and so forth. Publishers also make developers shoulder some of this risk in that if the game sells well in the full price release then game developers often, but not always, will see some back-slice action on that. Employees get bonuses, that sort of thing. The guys who made the games. If it drags out to a worst case nearing break-even point, the only money the game developer will see is the money they were advanced to make the game in the first place.

    Mostly true but there are some good publishers. I quite like THQ and Activision. Oh and, interestingly, Microsoft's games publishing business too.

    That's a generalisation but sadly I'd have to agree. However even EA takes substantial risks, they just make sure that only a percentage of their business is 'risky'. But sure that happens.

    I never said a real consumer does. Exactly why do you read anything I say and just elaborate out some world view that has nothing to do with my point? To clarify for you I do this with my group of friends because we all expect to play the games. Hell, even at the lan party that we buy the damn games for. The fact I haven't quite gotten around to playing 5 games in less than two months, well I'm sorry. I'm clearly just an idiot for buying 5 fan-bloody-tastic PC games.

    I can't remember what the grand total is for those games but I reckon I spent more money on booze that weekend anyway. It's all about perspective. You're a skint student, I'm not.

    My point in saying that was that it's something I do with my friends just to try keep us on the straight and narrow and not pirate those games when we can easily afford them. That's it. Nothing more, nothing less. Alright with you sunshine?

    Bugger me, that's why I can read this through my hands. I'm not real! Someone call the doctor, no the vicar. Anyone!

    Seriously, if you do want to work in the industry as a game designer but you've already decided all publishers are Evil and that games don't need to sell up front? Really setting yourself up for an enjoyable and profitable career eh? :)
     
  13. supermonkey

    supermonkey Deal with it

    Joined:
    14 Apr 2004
    Posts:
    4,955
    Likes Received:
    202
    Why not? I enjoy computer gaming, but I have no interest in Crysis. As a matter of fact, I did just that; I passed up Crysis and got Big Brain Academy instead. My wife and I have a blast playing against each other. Why does Crysis necessarily count any more than an interactive Wii game?

    I would say the fact that Nintendo has tapped into that new market has made them pretty competitive. Are PC game sales declining? I don't know. I won't argue that point one way or the other. However, I do think the idea of "computer games" has shifted from the tired stereotype of geeks pulling all-night LAN parties, fragging each other in graphics-laden FPS titles, to a new paradigm of casual and party-type games, such as Guitar Hero, Dance Dance Revolution, (insert sports game), and any number of Wii titles. The normal, "big" titles are still there (Crysis, et al), but more and more attention is being drawn to the alternative, "lighter" games. My wife loves computer gaming, but she doesn't have the skill to take on something as heavy at Crysis or SupCom. I tried to get her to play Warcraft 3, but she didn't like the fact that war was the only way to win. She likes the fact that Age of Mythology allows you to focus entirely on defense and win via economics. And I can't count the number of Yahoo! Games she's downloaded. I have to admit, some of them are kind of fun, and others are downright addictive. I know I've spent hours on Bookworm.

    I think I've started rambling. I guess what I'm trying to say is that, like so many other things in life, the truth lies somewhere in the middle. Or maybe I'm just rambling.

    -monkey
     
  14. Lurks

    Lurks What's a Dremel?

    Joined:
    2 Feb 2008
    Posts:
    10
    Likes Received:
    0
    Oh yes, I agree with your analysis but it's not incompatible with anything I've said. The UK in particular is an incredibly growth region for console game. I felt it would have muddied the issue a little further to state the poor PC game sales in relation to a booming console market. There's lots of ways of saying it. Massive reduction in market share etc. The point is that unit sales of the biggest and best PC games released during peak season are either the same (for the very top titles) or fractionally down (for everything else) on last year's PC games sales. While the games industry as a whole experiences substantial growth.

    Games are getting more expensive to make. So overall it makes the business case for PC gaming weaker in the context of the above.

    I don't have the same views as the industry, far from it. I'm trying to explain the mechanics of the industry in the face of what I perceive to be unjustified denials. On the last point, as I've said before you have a choice. a) PC gamers aren't buying even good pc games because they have such high standards. b) PC gamers are pirating the games instead. I'm not advocating an industry approach but there's clear evidence to suggest that piracy plays a major role.

    I'm baffled what evidence anyone has that piracy doesn't play a role? Can someone, anyone, explain to me what basis that is rather than the fact they would quite like if it didn't because they don't like publishers and publishers don't like piracy.

    Covered this plenty. The big one is that price doesn't appear to be a major factor. The games don't sell when they go cheap either. SupCom:FA went cheap almost immediately and the very next week after release was patched to have protection removed. Did it rally? No. It's being outsold by garbage like C&C 3 and WIC although they're not selling very much at all either. What possibly reason is there not to buy that wonderful game? You tell me?

    Best money i spent in 2007 that was.

    Heh, on the contrary I look at that and what I see is a list DOMINATED by people wanting more of the same. Every single thing and you're saying consumer interest is *away* from that? Are you looking at the same list? Or do you mean to suggest that people bought less of those games because they were more of the same? I'm confused.

    There are original games around. Where are they on the list? If you look at games charts from the PC gaming hey-day, it was rammed with original games. I know it's a bitter pill to swallow but really when it comes down to it, people buy stuff that's familiar. I guess you're all immediately going to take that as me having the view that originality is bad and all these sequels etc are just peachy... :duh:
     
  15. Crops

    Crops What's a Dremel?

    Joined:
    21 Jun 2006
    Posts:
    13
    Likes Received:
    0
    I Have to comment --- Brett's photo - every dang column - he looks so sad.... like his best girl just dumped him for his best friend. Those sad puppy eyes....... I hereby request officially that Brett get a new photo done for the column - no more sad eyes........ please.
     
  16. Cthippo

    Cthippo Can't mod my way out of a paper bag

    Joined:
    7 Aug 2005
    Posts:
    6,785
    Likes Received:
    103
    Fair enough. I wasn't sure where your explination ended and your opinion began.

    Here's my take on it, for what it's worth. I agree, lots of people pirate games, so lets stipulate that for the sake of arguement. What I disagree on is the relevance of this fact. Many in the industry assume that piracy represents lost sales. I think that piracy represents sales that never would have been. If you could flip some magic switch tomorrow and end piracy I donn't think that there would be a sudden surge of game sales. The people who used to pirate games wouldn't suddenly go out and buy them, they would simply go without or find a new pasttime. In fact, I think there would actually be a small decrease in long term sales. There is a lot of admittedly anecdotal evidence that people pirate games to try before they buy them. I think piracy falls into the same category as taxes. Sure, it's a problem, but somthing as an irrelevant one because even if you solved it, things would not improve. Such is my opinion, feel free to disagree.


    To be honest, I did wonder about that looking at the list. I also question the list because we know Crysis went Platnum in that time and numerous sources have reported the Orange box selling extremly well, yet neither were mentioned. Lies, damn lies, and statistics. Perhaps those of us who want high quality, innvative games are in fact only a vocal minority. If so, then it doesn't matter what we do, but i hope the publishers don't complain when we take our money elsewhere.

    I'm by no means an official representative of Bit, but as a member of the peanut gallery I would like to encourage you to write an article for Bit on how the industry works and the role and realities as seen by the publishers. This is a debate that affects all of us and I think I speak for many here when I say I would like to hear other perspecives.

    Edit: Speaking of which, I'd be interested to get your thoughts on Valve opening up steam to pretty much all comers as far as deverlopers are concerned.
     
    Last edited: 4 Feb 2008
  17. DXR_13KE

    DXR_13KE BananaModder

    Joined:
    14 Sep 2005
    Posts:
    9,139
    Likes Received:
    382
    that was a good read..... thanks :D
     
  18. Risky

    Risky Modder

    Joined:
    10 Sep 2001
    Posts:
    4,515
    Likes Received:
    151
    I'm an address occasional gamer these days but the games I play aren't well suited to the console interface.

    Turn-based-strategy will always be best with a mouse and I can't see how something like X3 would fair in a console environment.
     
  19. Lurks

    Lurks What's a Dremel?

    Joined:
    2 Feb 2008
    Posts:
    10
    Likes Received:
    0
    This is quite interesting actually but they're not entirely just opening up Steam to anyone who wants to flog a game on it, I think. Or at least it doesn't imply they're doing that from what I've read. It's actually a kind of business focused middleware-esque solution which they're selling.

    This offers to take care of:

    * Release day authorisation: Eg game you buy is encrypted and only works on release day. Very effective.
    * Patch distribution
    * Online match making for multiplayer
    * Voice communications
    * Steam community features
    * Some development tools for testing and debugging

    But I think if you want to sell your game on Steam you ultimately have to negotiate that with Valve. I'm not sure they'll just let any old game appear. Maybe they will? At any rate Valve have a soft spot for indy devs anyway, remember how they pushed Darwinia and and Uplink from Introversion? So I doubt they'd have a problem putting on a decent game.

    So broadly I'd welcome it. The PC *really* needs a common interface for digital distribution, just like Xbox Live Arcade because it's not a big enough market to support many really. The only problem you have is that you need to get the guys who own the common interface to agree to put your game up. It's not easy getting on Xbox Live Arcade. If Valve become less choosy, I guess indys risk having their games lost in Steam somewhere. I've already seen that really. You know, Steam pushes the latest and greatest AAA thing going because, presumably, there's money changing hands. Probably little incentive to push smaller stuff. But then again... they did that with Peggle.

    So broadly I'd say it's great. SteamWorks looks genuinely useful particularly as a great tool to combat piracy. Valve's encryption stuff really works well and completely solves the issue of leaked games in manufacturing getting out to crackers before stuff is even released.

    One thing I don't know, and I'm inclined to try find out, is how Steam is received in Germany. Germany is one of the few places in the world that PC gaming is really doing well. Be very interesting to know the German view on digital distribution in general. My gut feeling is that many of the games they like (more sophisticated sim games etc) just aren't normally found on digital distribution anyway.
     
  20. Edvuld

    Edvuld Minimodder

    Joined:
    2 Aug 2005
    Posts:
    230
    Likes Received:
    0
    Very good article, good job!
     
Tags: Add Tags

Share This Page