E.U: Leave or Stay? Your thoughts.

Some googlefu about his voting records suggests he is of the Nexxo should be deported variety:

https://www.theyworkforyou.com/mp/24916/stephen_barclay/north_east_cambridgeshire/recent

 

Both appointments are less 'who's best suited' and '****, who's left?'

 

Remember the Unionist politicians from NI that are foaming at the mouth over the withdrawal agreement?

Now there is another twist in the tale... NI businesses are urging the DUP to change its tune and back the agreement:

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/...think-opposition-to-brexit-deal-37535586.html

 

I thought businesses could go F themselves? We're taking back control and apparently the economics aren't as important as being able to make our own decisions, those farming and business organisations should stop talking the country down, get over it, and all that stuff.

At least we can take solace in the fact that the deputy editor of the Daily Express feels slightly responsible for the current mess we find ourselves in.

If only there was a way to communicate with loads of people at once in a responsible manner and tell people that the politicians would probably make an absolute hash of things before all this happened.

 

Interestingly, the deputy editor confesses he voted Remain.

And:

 

How would a GE prevent brexshit from happening? Or has he forgotten the last GE where both Tories and Labour "promised" that they would take us out of the EU and that Corbyn still wants brexit?

 

no deal - won't go through parliament, but if nothing else happened, come April that's where we are.
may's deal - probably won't go through parliament either, amended or otherwise
no brexit - also unlike to get it through the commons, probably still political suicide for anyone who suggests it

general election - no time, no guarantee it'll solve anything [we could end up with more or less the same stalemate for the various options above]

second referendum - also no time, also no guarantee it'll solve anything

 

What RedFlames said, but also May is currently engaged in a game of chicken.

As much as i don't like the idea of leaving the EU Mrs May's proposal probably comes closest to honoring the 48-52% result and now it's a matter of whether the extremist on both sides of the commons have the cojones to vote it down.

Despite Gove, Leadsome, Fox, and Labours proclamation that they want to change the deal there's no time left for that, perhaps intentional so, and them saying so is playing politics, Gove, Leadsome, and Fox may well resign in the next few weeks to both keep the pressure on May and claim they gave it their all but the ladies not for turning.

Labour on the other hand hopes that voting it down will buy time (the EU have said only a GE and/or 2nd referendum would cause them to consider delaying things) and a shift in public opinion due to a no deal scenario looking increasing likely, if they get a GE they'll basically go whatever way the winds blowing.

 

Exactly, it wouldn't work.
Sure they might succeed in forcing a GE by voting down the deal and even if we assume the EU bends over backwards and lets say grants a 1 year extension of art 50 that doesn't mean Labour would be any less divided than the Tories are now, plus unless it was to change the deal to EEA then there would be no chance of changing it significantly anyway.
And without a chance of changing it significantly Labour would then be left with the choice between selling Mays plan as their own or throwing us off the cliff.

 

It's not that it wouldn't work, just that it's got a very low chance of succeeding.

My guess is Labour are hoping the following scenario plays out: Mrs May's proposal gets voted down > chance of no deal increases > public opinion shift more towards a 2nd referendum > Government collapses because May's deal failed to pass > GE called > Labour stand on the promise to hold 2nd referendum > EU put A50 on hold until result of GE and/or 2nd referendum if a party gets elected with that in manifesto.

That's me trying to predict what they're hoping, and could, happen in the next 3-4 months so obviously each of those stages may change as things develop, but out of the two options, May's deal or no deal, that's how things may play out IMO if the commons can't decide.

 

IMO there are only 2 circumstance where the EU would seriously entertain an A50 extension.

1 - to give HMG time to get the May deal through parliament
2: - to accommodate a referendum between remain and may's deal.

Labour's plain is DOA. It's reliant on too many ifs to be anything but.

If they can force an election, if they can win a majority, if the EU will renegotiate, if they can secure extra time to renegotiate in/with, if there's genuinely a better deal to be had, if they can get that deal through parliament. If.

 

The EU have enough on their plate what with upcoming EU elections, so there'll be no desire to extend A50. No more than a couple of weeks at best.

And this withdrawl agreement is stupid. This whole farce has been stupid. People are still emotionally ranting 'get it done' without still having a clue what it really means.

 

The EU will be quite OK with the UK crashing out without a deal, because although it will harm the EU, it will also be seen by EU citizens as the fault of the UK. The EU negotiated in good faith; the UK welched on the agreement at the last moment. And Eurosceptics in other nations will think again.

Buckle up: the rollercoaster is about to crest the hill and go doooooown!

 

The EU will go 'well we handed them a parachute, they chose to jump out of the plane without it'

Most of the individual countries see Brexit as a domestic UK problem. The UK arguing with itself [which it is].

 

It's been a domestic Tory problem for 40 years, they've just managed to extend the party implosion to the country as a whole.

 

In other news, after the stupid amount of money paid for Cameron's book he's now in talks about a TV series.

I'll only be interested if it sees the spineless arrogant fool in a courtroom being tried for treason.

 

Agreed, but what are the alternatives?

Basically it comes down to the lovelies in Westminster having to make a choice if they reject the withdrawal agreement:

Do they want to be closer to the EU than the withdrawal agreement?
Then they have to choose between the following two options:
EEA
Remain

Do they want to be further away from the EU than the withdrawal agreement?
Then they have to choose between the following two options:
Give NI back, resettle anyone in NI who doesn't want to become Irish in England.
Throw GFA, CTA and Belfast Agreement under the bus, put up a hard border and take responsibility for the inevitable.

And if they can't get a majority for any of those four options? Then they will have to grovel to May and accept the deal that they previously rejected, hold a 2nd referendum to take the decision out of the hand of parliament...or throw us from the cliff.

 

They'll probably end up holding a second referendum. If people vote Remain: problem solved. If people vote Leave again: Hey, will of the people™! Abdication of responsibility complete.

 

It's a Parliamentary Democracy, in theory they could just say it's in the 'National Interest' (I hate that phrase) to not leave the EU.

Or, a second referendum. Stay in or leave with no deal.

 

Indeed. It's a representative democracy in which all power of government derives from Parliament. And it is an advisory referendum. Parliament could simply call the whole thing off, just like that.