News Analysts say Sony will win the Next-gen battle

http://www.bit-tech.net/news/2006/08/18/analysts_say_sony_will_win_next-gen_battle/

 

Anal-ysts

 

I would like to know who commissioned the report...

 

hmmmmmmm...... by 2011 Micrsoft will have a new console, ....now i remembered something.... PS1 was great because you could play lots of games and could listen to cds, cds were a proven technology and cd players were "expensive", PS2 came, you could play old PS1 games and view DVDs that were a proven technology and dvd players were "expensive", come PS3, you can play old games from PS1 and 2 and you can view blueray disks, blueray is a un-proven technology and players are "realy expensive".
see the diference?

PS3 is on the edge of failure and success, they will lose this war if: users think it is better to buy 2 consoles for the price of one or/and blue-ray flops and/or the console itself sucks/is dangerous (fires and other things).

sony will only get my money if the console gets cheaper and if it does not devour a ludicrous amount of money in the form of the light bill.

and nintendo holding 16% of the market..........that is just dumb i think.

 

Intresting that they can say all that.

Now I'll just go invest all my savings in Sony, and I'm sure to win big eh? Nope, I don't think so either.

There are a lot of uncertainties in this whole thing, not least the games(remember anyone, games, the things that these consoles exist to play?). Something like this has to be almost totaly guessing, at this stage. Marketing, the games and accessories, price, Blu-Ray Vs. HD-DVD, HDTV market penetration. All of those things remain up in the air, and untill they come down, I don't think anyone can realisticly announce something like this.

 

So basically, the report is saying that nobody will win the nextgen console wars until nextgen++ is out?
And these people get paid to say things like that?

 

..bah I think the ps3 will flop. Most of it's target audiance can't afford £60 games nevermind the huge price of the console. The 360 isn't doing that well the uk ethier.

 

wii for the masses i think wii will win why? becuase they are aiming new people not the same market most of the ppl alwats buy 2 consoles and i think the wii is nice 2nd console for the price, also i saw today at ign 121 images of red steel and the game looks sweet i think its going to be 1-2 wii and xbox360 neck to neck and ps3 behind them

 

To be honest, I thought the dreamcast would whoop the PS2, it was better for various reasons, cheaper, better games, arguably better graphics in some games, a year of the market over sony.... some reason it never did, still love mine today tho Probs cos sony had a DVD player which the DC never had.

I think the battle between the 360 and the PS3 will be a similar battle, as they both have similar background details plus the PS3 again, has a new 'revolutionary' video drive, but i expect this one to be a lot closer, all depends on how blue ray does, if it doesnt take off like DVDs did... then sony may have a problem on their hands, some fancy technology that costs twice the price of their competitors with no real market for it, DVDs became mainstream instantly and at the time, 130 quid for a PS2 console AND a dvd player was a bargain, when a DVD player was 80 quid alone

 

That is the most ridiculous report I've have ever read. So Sony is going to win 1-2 years after the next generation of consoles after these are out? Who gives a sh*t then? So basically they're going to lose their ass on it until its out-dated. Microsoft could afford to do this with the first xbox, I'm not sure if Sony can.

 

sega didnt have billion supporting their console like MS

 

one of the only differences, which im sure will have le big impact

 

Are these estimates for the US only or something? I can't imagine Nintendo only selling 11 million Wii units in 4-5 years time, given the Japanese and US markets. Aren't both Nintendo and Sony ludicrously popular in Japan?

Aren't there about 300 Million people in the US and another 300 million-ish in Japan? So out of 600 million people in just these two countries, which makes well over 100 million households in these two countries alone. So the claim is that at most 1/10 households will have a Wii after 5 years? Or...if you open it up to the rest of the world where I know gaming is popular (at least europe, england, candada, australia....), now we're down to like 1/100 households will have a Wii?

And all this, with both Microsoft and Sony saying "buy the Wii and our console too"?

what kind of sales penetration does the gamecube have? is it really that low?

 

To be honest, though a lot of us want the "latest and greatest", i don't think we're willing to go back to the pricing of the cartridge era. Hell, the cost of games is UNREASONABLE. How freaking much can it cost to produce a disk?

 

Its going to be interesting to see how it turns out

Us in the know don't seem to like the PS3 much, plus the £600 price tag or whatever is a big turn off

But the general public, that's another question

 

The PS3 is going to flop, and in doing so I hope this company with their no research based reports does as well.

 

That's right, Sony is going to win regardless of the now low support of it's console and the fact that it's stock have fallen, meaning even people who know nothing about the gaming market are worried.

This is pretty much non-news.

 

Don't forget...when you buy a disk for a console, you're not only paying the game development cost, the cost to print the disk, and a bit of profit for the game producer, the shipper, and the seller...but you're also paying for the console itself.

The reason the PS3 and XBox 360 are "so cheap" is because they're sold at a loss for Sony/Microsoft (I've heard Nintendo doesn't generally sell at a loss). They make up that loss by charging extra for everything you need to use the console: games are marked up to pay fees to sony/microsoft. Those extra controllers that don't come with the console are sold for like $20-$50 when they cost about $11 to make (according to analysis of the 360 controller). Everything you buy to go with your console is extra expensive because the console was "such a good deal."

Supposedly it takes at least 2-3 years for Sony/Microsoft to break even (when accounting for research and development costs of the console, and selling the the consoles at a loss in terms of component costs).


On the other hand...why the hell does everything stay so expensive after that 2-3 year period? Granted, previous generation titles suddenly get cheaper when the next generation gets popular....but there is never a decrease in game/controller/accessory prices corresponding to the "break even" point for the console developer.

 

I hope next generation consoles doesn't come until 2013 at least. I believe X-Box 360 and PS3 have plenty of power to last that long.

 

Ignoring the fact that we'll probably be on the next round of consoles by 2011 (or very close), I'd be very surprised if the Wii *doesn't* have the largest marketshare. Of course, it'll be sitting next to either of the others in the case of many people, but I'd still say that defines being a winner.

So, probably the singlemost worthless 'report' I've read in quite a while.