Bit-Tech Brexit Poll

Ok, let me explain it to you in other way.

UK starts the Article 50 process. That starts the 2 year clock. Once 2 year passes, UK is out of EU. If you are out of EU, then the EU trade rules do not apply to UK anymore. If UK has no special trade deal in place by the 2 year mark, then then all trade relations between UK and EU are governed by WTO rules.

Your own link says so :

And what is that treaty ? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Functioning_of_the_European_Union
And that treaty includes customs union and other trade stuff. So if you leave EU, Treaty on functoning of EU do not appply to UK anymore, thus you have no trade treaty with EU anymore. Thus WTO rules apply.

Edit: And finally - EEA comes with some wiggle room, but not in the areas the main topics of referendum were about (free movement is not negotiable). And it takes time to settle that wiggle room. And again, once the 2 year mark passes and UK doesn't have a treaty with EU about the instant switch to EEA membership, then UK has no trade treaty with EU, because the previous one was part of the EU treaty UK just left.

 

If the City of London loses some bankers would anyone give a damn? From those that voted leave. Can not say they would.

City of London trades more in $ than any other currency. Its the largest trader of $ in the world is a crazy fact. We have as of March this year 45% of all trading done in the world through the City of London.

Likely hood is with us out of the EU trade will increase, As regulations that the EU forces onto us will no longer apply. Bonuses are currently capped , Financial Transaction Tax is something Germany would like to force onto us.

We export around 1.1pc of gdp in finacial services to the EU, We export alot more than that to the rest of the world.

Same fear mongering was said in the late 90s with us not joining the Euro the city would suffer, It became the biggest and most important trade centre in the world.

If trade does leave the City it will not be to europe as some remain campaigners said it will be back to New York City, Hong Kong or Singapore.

Lets be blunt, All 27 member states could not agree on how to run a coffee morning let alone how to organise a trade deal. Germany and France will take the lead and everyone else will follow there instructions or face the consequences.

Germany is the self presevation capital of the world, Theres no way they will risk there main export by allowing each individual member state a chance to screw it up.

 

This.

There is no possible way that any of the Leave campaign leaders - not just Farage - could have been ignorant of the fact that access to the single market requires the free movement of labour, and that we already have the power to control non-EU migration. It didn't take long for the backpedalling to start on the immigration rhetoric, did it?

In case it's not yet abundantly clear: if you voted Leave you've been had. You've been well and truly duped by career politicians who care not a jot about your welfare. All the things that have been done to you in the past several decades - austerity, funding cuts, lack of investment, lack of support, etc - by successive governments have been used to further their own agenda and the agenda of their paymasters. They have taken your disenfranchisement and turned it towards their own goals.

If you can't already see that then I pity you; there's a very high likelihood that we're going to get ****ed even harder in the coming years, and there's a very good chance that they'll pull the same old trick on you again in years to come. If not the EU or immigrants then they'll invent some other fictitious bogeyman and you'll believe them all over again.

 

So we were at cross purposes.

Once the UK starts Article 50 we start the negotiating on what framework we want our exit to to take, what parts they and we agree to keep and what parts we and they agree to discard.

Yes that can included being a member of the EEA, EFTA, etc, etc, but that doesn't mean negotiating the terms of EEA, EFTA membership as the negotiating of those terms would start after Article 50 has been concluded, Article 50 negotiations basically set out how and what happens after leaving the EU.

 

But the end of Article 50 negotiations is that you are out of EU, you are out of single market, none of the EU articles apply to EU-UK trade. So yes, you have to work out your trade relationship within that discussion. There is not going to be some "grace period" between end of Article 50 negotiation (aka stopping participating in Treaty of EU) and maybe joining EEA sometime later.

So while technically yes, trade negotiations are not part of Article 50 discussion, UK would be stupid not to do it inside that period. And good luck achieving that.

 

My understanding is you'd only be out of the single market if you didn't negotiate continued membership of that during the Article 50 negotiations, we could dump everything and negotiate terms for reentry or we could ask for continued membership of the single market.

Obviously if the UK asked to remain a member of the single market as part of the Article 50 negotiations the terms of remaining a member of the single market wouldn't be part of the Article 50 talks, they could, if they wanted, depend on single market rules immediately upon exiting the EU but it would be the default rules.

At least that's how i understand things.

 

The thing is: they can't see it. Even when Farage was denying the £350m --> NHS claim, people were defending him and accusing the ITV interviewer of being rude. Even when Hannah was stating that immigration would effectively carry on unchanged, people were talking about how good it was that DEMOCRACY and SOVEREIGNTY (in caps) was restored, because now we have CONTROL ( ). They just have a massive blind spot.

This means that the Brexiteers can spin it whichever way they want and do whatever they want and the electorate is going to swallow it whole as a Good Thing.



"My God, it's full of retard!"

 

It's going to take a good few years before people realise they've been sold a pup, it's going to take a few years to realise they have no more or maybe less DEMOCRACY and SOVEREIGNTY.

Basically it's going to take years for people to work out the Jam tomorrow promise was just a pipe dream.

 

When you say "a few years" are you referring to how long it will take before the facts become apparent, or their thinking speed?

 

For someone who puts a great deal of thought and effort into debate, you continually undermine your own credibility:

One minute you're saying people were taken in by clever and deceptive Leave campaign propaganda, and then you're just declaring them all retards.

It's wearing a bit thin now, tbh.

 

Both things can be true at the same time.

I mean, how hard was it to spot the propaganda? It was not as if it wasn't glaringly blatant. It was almost parodic in its extremity. Only people with a severe deficit in rational thinking ability would fall for it. And fall for it they did. So yeah, sorry if my respect for people has taken a nose dive a bit. I'm sure that like the pound, it will eventually recover. Maybe.

 

and there you go again.

/abandon thread

 

+1

Nex, can I further add that geographically the areas affected over the years by the closure of various industries which caused wholesale unemployment are those areas which proportionally voted to leave.

It's not that I believe in any shape, form or manner that they are the under educated poor elements of society who were swayed by political idiots and propaganda - I believe that after the years of hardship they and their families have endured they decided to have their say in a democratic society.

As a so called Socialist I thought you might appreciate that sentiment.

 

Despite the risk of this turning into an echo chamber, Nexxo is right. If you couldn't see through the veil of lies that the Leave campaign was spreading even when they all but admitted it, then your choice is not worthy of my respect.

The "£350m to the NHS" claim was plastered on the side of their god-damned bus! They admitted that it was misleading because it's the gross figure, not the net, and then after the vote Farage has the audacity to try and claim that they never said they'd spend the EU fees on the NHS instead!!

Look! Here it is ffs! "We send the EU £350 million a week - let's fund our NHS instead"



This is before we even start to look at what we get for the membership fees. I am so unbelievably angry that Wales overwhelmingly voted Leave, when Wales has been one the biggest recipients of EU support in the entire UK! People drive past so many signs emblazoned with "EU REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT FUND" on a day-to-day basis and they don't even realise. That wonderful new metro system for South Wales, you know the one that planned to make it easier for people to get into the more urban areas like Cardiff and Newport where you've got a better chance of getting a job and don't have to worry about the M4 bottleneck? Well you can kiss that goodbye because the government needed to get EU funding to contribute towards the cost. The £4 billion in funding that Wales has received from the EU in the last 16 years? Yeah, that'll go away too; can Westminster meet that same level of funding? Yes, probably, if they utterly slash budgets elsewhere, like local councils and the NHS.

To say that I currently have little faith in the ability for people think clearly and rationally is the mother of all understatements. And in case it wasn't entirely apparent, yes, I am extremely pissed off. I was pissed off last year when, on the back of 5 years worth of Tory-led austerity and cuts, we voted in the Tories again to carry on their savage agenda against the poor and working people of this country. I'm pissed off with decision of Leave voters to buy into the same god damned lies that they've been fed for decades.

I'm sure my opinion will soften in time, but right now I am extremely pissed off.

 

+1

I'm with Spreadie with regards to your posts/position in this thread Nexxo, tend to think you're on point and articulate and polite etc, but you've often come across a bit condescending and rude, neither of which help anything.

The decision has been made (which was a complete shock for me I might add) and so now it's best to focus on what might happen now, no need for name calling, that doesn't help anything nor will it encourage people who voted leave for possibly the wrong reasons to reconsider their choice.

 

That bus thing is beautifully crafted. Reading it implies that you would send the EU money to the NHS. In reality it makes no commitment as to what should be done with the money and instead merely supports funding the NHS (which Britain does anyway). It is basically two separate and unrelated sentences in one.

The way it is structured allows them to claim ownership if the money does go to the NHS and if nothing goes to the NHS it allows them to deny saying that there was any commitments made to the NHS.

 

It's crafted to be deceptive and it worked - people bought it.

 

Barack Obama said something that the leave campaign has used alot and it is a harsh fact.

The freer international flow of goods and people has the possibility of extraordinary benefits, Obama says. But he admits the gains are not evenly shared.

Globalisation has become the big thing. Not everyone is recieving its benefits in equal measure is a fact. Compare the wages in a city like London to those up north doing the same job.

Someone else said something pretty fitting, The Haves voted remain, The Have nots voted leave. UK has a massive Rich / Poor Divide these days.

The North South divide is the term thats used, Its never been wider than it is this year.

Trump is wininng an election based on deception and words, Problem is the American Rich and Elite are still ignoring him and spouting nonesence, The non elite do not care that he might not be spouting the truth. They care he might make a change if thats better or worse they are willing to take a risk.

Leave is a Risk vote for many it was better than doing nothing.

 

IPSOS MORI have said if the same number of younger people had actually voted as the number of older people - REMAIN would have won.


no point being whiny if you don't put your X in the box

 

I'm sorry, but what? The Haves voted remain and the Have Nots voted leave? Well ****, excuse me while I go roll in my money piles, since I must be one of the Haves.

The reason the vote had the demographics that it did was because people in the poor and deprived areas have been duped by the likes of UKIP and the other political parties have followed the UKIP tune because they could see which way the wind was blowing. They have blamed immigration and the EU for the fact that people can't get or keep a job, or can't get a doctor's appointment, or can't get treatment. This simply is not true. These people have been shafted by governments of the last several decades and now they've been shafted again by liars and charlatans like Nigel Farage and Michael Gove who have spectacularly directed attention away from the real problem.

I come from one of the most deprived areas of Wales, an area that suffered very badly from the decline of coal mining and manufacturing. An area that has been consistently and repeatedly let down by governments of all colours, yet drive around my home town and you will see plenty of signs bearing the EU flag, proudly advertising the fact that money for redevelopment for this area has come from the EU. Thatcher's government screwed us over decades ago, and governments since then have been dancing to the same tune. The EU has helped us, yet these lying shits are telling us that the one organisation supporting us are the ones to blame for the problems that they themselves caused.