E.U: Leave or Stay? Your thoughts.

Exactly. The quicker the deal, the more disadvantageous it is likely to be. That is why any trade deal, anywhere in the world takes on average 7-10 years.

Any fanciful notion that the UK can agree some good trade agreements with countries outside the EU in a mere couple of years is fantasy. Even the idea that the UK could stay in the EEA after a Brexit, accepting membership fees and free movement, is far from certain. The UK government is talking about the Norway model as of it was actually an option. It may not even be on offer.

If the UK invokes article 50 anytime before 2019, it will end up kicked into the WTO guaranteed, having to spend the next few decades negotiating disadvantageous trade deals with 161 countries from scratch with a team of 60 negotiators instead of the estimated 700 it would need to pull that off. The UK will survive in the long run, but any aspirations of being a strong economic power relevant on the geopolitical world stage are finished. It has an economy no larger than the state of California. It does not have a dominant currency like the US dollar or (yes) the Euro. It has almost no manufacturing. Its financial services rely on EU passporting rights. It really has very little to offer anybody that cannot be bought somewhere else.

Seriously, Leavers really have no ****ing clue what they voted for.

 

I know a few people who voted leave cause they hate the current government, up in the north east it's basically labour dominated area, People up here voted against whatever Cameron wanted. Labour never really campaigned it's pro EU ideals.

A lot of work that used to be based around here has gone to other countries and people do blame the EU for this. Not saying they are right or wrong.

The things said since we have voted to leave have not exactly helped and have caused a lot of anger in the general population just look at this topic and some of the responses.

Yes leave never had a plan but none of the leave campaigners would of been expected too, they are not in charge of the government. David Cameron resigned cause he was too close to the stay campaign he staked his career on that vote.

PM should of stayed neutral, had plans both ways ready to go into action. They just seemed to expect a stay vote. As did all EU politicians for that matter.

What's done is done people need to lose the anger and start preparing for the eventuallity that we will leave. If that means filling in some forms I'd start filling them in. Planning what needs to be done.

Short term we might suffer some as a country, Long term we can only guess, planning the economy for a year is nigh on impossible. Let alone saying where we will be in 5-10 years.

Who honestly predicted the ftse100 would hit year to date highs after a leave vote ? Nobody or they would of made a lot of money. The fear campaign lost that one after about 24 hours.

When people stop living in fear and start facing reality life will move on.

Did people who voted stay have a clue what the voted for ? More of the same ?

Don't think either side had a factual argument just fear driven. Terror trumps financial stability who would of thought.

 

That is a result of the free market economy that Leavers are so fond of. Wait until the UK has closer bilateral relationships with mass manufacturing hothouses like China and India, then you'll really see those jobs go.

In that case the government have no responsibility for fulfilling promises that Vote Leave made either. Like you said: Vote Leave had no authority to make those promises as they are not the government (as they hastily pointed out themselves while backpedalling the very next day: they were just mentioning possibilities, they said). Which means that the government gets to decide the terms of a Brexit. Their plan, their terms.

I don't think you understand the FTSE100. It is not a measure of the UK economy. I also think you don't understand that this was just the market reaction to the idea of Brexit --it hasn't actually happened yet. The real consequences will become clear in the long term.

Perhaps when the hate crime levels settle back down. Perhaps when the Pound stops dropping. Perhaps when EU immigrants who built a life here for decades, have careers, pension schemes, homes will know whether they can stay. The mock-outrage when May stated that the future status of currently resident EU immigrants could not be guaranteed was farcical. What the **** did Vote Leave and UKIP think they campaigned for?

Reality is that whatever people think they voted for, they won't necessarily get it. The Defence department has already said that the UK will now not be able to meet its defence spending commitments. The NHS will now need £540 million per week more by 2020 just to keep going. And no, it won't be getting that mythical £350 million per week. The towns that voted most to leave will be the first to feel the consequences.

The government will Brexit on its own terms, in its own time, according to its own plan, perfectly legal and in accordance with the rules of representative democracy. And it will prioritise money, not the electorate. I really think that the electorate has not realised that yet.

 

Understandable but (IMO) leaving the EU just means they'll get Cameron'esc policies on steroids, leaving the EU removes what little braking effect they had on the UK.

It's to be expected, if you grabbed the wheel of a car and caused a crash the passengers would probably have something to say about that, getting angry at them for what they say seems like the response of someone in denial.

That angers never going to subside because the repercussions from leaving the EU are going to effect everyone's lives, and maybe people could start preparing for the eventuality that we'll leave when they know what leave actually means or looks like.

We've already suffered more than "some" as just the result of the referendum wiped $2tn from global markets, goodness knows how much more will be lost when we trigger Article 50, and that $2tn is ultimately going to be paid not be the "elites" but by average Jo Blogs just like it was in the 08 banking crisis.

FTSE 100 is a poor indicator of UK companies and the lots of money that was made ended up in the pockets of the very same "elites" that some people gave as the reason for voting leave, go figure.

That's sort of tricky when people are rightly fearful of the possible repercussions of the vote on their real lives, when people are worried about losing their job, their house, and all those other real life worries that have suddenly been called into question.

I can't speak for everyone but i did, i knew remaining in the EU was not, despite the claims, more of the same, that's unless you think more of the same means a constantly evolving EU that adapts to its members needs, and has changed more since its inception than the UK political system has in its entire history.

 

The hate isn't even being contained to EU migrants, it's just being directed at anyone people see as "different". My parents told me that on the very day after the referendum, they received hate calls telling them to go back to china.

 

Racists feel legitimised by the fact that a majority of the population ostensibly voted against immigration. Basically the message conveyed by the Vote Leave campaign was: "There's just too darn many of them foreigners here!", so of course racists now think that the majority "vote Leave" was referring to the darkies, muzzies and polaks.

For many people, it is only societal restraint that keeps their behaviour in check. Once that is perceived to be removed, they go off the moral cliff.

Now the Brexiteers are acting all contrite and mock-outraged at all the hate crime and Theresa May's position that the rights of resident EU immigrants cannot be unilaterally guaranteed, but that is the logical conclusion of what Vote Leave campaigned on, and that is the message that they won the majority vote on. They rode the racist tiger, and now it wants its meat. As for those who voted Leave, they are judged by the company they keep.

 

*raises hand*

I did.

And it works a little like this:

Brexit happened
FTSE drops as brexit shock kicks in
Pound tanks. Hard.

However -

Many FTSE companies do a lot of their business in $, so thanks to the £ tanking the $ they have are worth more on paper.
This means the FTSE companies themselves are worth more [on paper].
This causes most FTSE100 companies share prices go up, dragging the FTSE as a whole up with it... in the short term at least.

 

And again. FTSE100 is not relevant, look at FTSE250. 3/4 of FTSE100 income is from outside UK.

 

Looks like the government could face legal challenges if they invoked Article 50 without a vote in parliament.

There's also calls for an independent investigation into the costs and benefits of withdrawal, if the Chilcot report is anything to go by something like that could take 40+ years to complete.

 

It'd be done by one of them there experts! And we all know what we think of experts*.

Wasn't there an investigation by the civil service? I'm pretty sure the Liverpool law prof. mentioned one at one point.


*unless they're an expert we like, saying things we like.

 

We would be dead before a independent investigation was completed. It's impossible to predict country money year to year let alone for the next 10 years+. Too many external factors can influence it.

War, global economy crash, political change, policy change. None of these would be our country but could all affect your income. List goes on and on.

 

Leadsom quits the race to be the next PM. So it's Theresa May then, by default.

 

Leadsom quits the Tory "election", 'Theresa May looks set to be PM by the end of the week - possibly even sooner'.

That removes one of the excuses for not invoking Article 50.

 

Another hardcore Brexiteer bails out. Why am I not surprised? I guess she finally got the reality check that there was no way that Vote Leave's shiny promises could be delivered. Ah well, at least now we know what "vote Leave" means: 'jump ship and leave the **** storm you created for others to tidy up'.

But business is reassuringly back to normal; Leadstrom backs May for PM. Gove says May should become Prime Minister "as quickly as possible". Boris Johnson says that Theresa May would make an "excellent Prime Minister". As I said before this referendum: the Tory party always, always pulls back together. Which is why it will always get its way --and what that is, you'll find out...

Actually like Gove, May said that she would not invoke Article 50 this year. The UK government has got nowhere near to getting its act together.

By the time this is over, the UK will be in the EEA. And everybody but the hard-core crazies will actually be grateful for it.

 

Don't worry, they'll think of more...

 

"Brexit means Brexit" is such a wonderful circular statement. It could mean anything.

 

And now Tim Farron [Lib Dem leader in case you didn't know..] is calling for an early election, yet his predecessor is the reason there almost certainly won't be one... [The Fixed-term parliament act was Nick Clegg's idea].

 

If Lib Dem stands on a manifesto of remaining in the EU, it's got 48% of the vote right there.

A couple of weeks ago, it was all Brexit joy, the country turned over on its axis and the Brexiteers holding all the trump cards. Fast forward two weeks: Farrage is gone, Johnson is gone, Gove is gone, Leadsom is gone - not a Brexiteer in sight. Not a single one of those who led us over the edge of the cliff has hung around long enough to pick up the pieces.

Instead Brexit is to be delivered by a PM who backed remaining. Do we have control yet?



As I said: people get the government they deserve. And right now, they deserve Theresa May.


And Mail and Express readers are going apoplectic. Silver lining and all that.

 

Here we see the Article 50 declaration being filed away in the cabinet office - next to the British bill of rights, proposals for an elected upper house, proportional representation, and the UK's economic tests for joining the Euro




May: And what of the Article 50 notification?
Civil Servant: We have top men working on it right now.
May: Who?
Civil Servant: Top... men.

 

It's not like David Cameron hid the fact he would hold a referendum. Tory gov still got a majority with the SNP blackmailing the rest.

We have had 2 chances to vote out of a eu ref and failed both times.