E.U: Leave or Stay? Your thoughts.

One plus 3 did, The big 2 did not. Id query how many phones are actually brought in a shop though and not on contract these days.

The 2 big players have set the prices and they are the same as they were on launch a 16gb 6s+ was £619 still is £619. Apple and Samsung kinda just gain or lose depending on £ - $ when they transfer out.

One Plus is sold at cost apperently pre brexit £309 was $438 give or take. now that same cost is $410. Both those prices are over the current Store price for the One Plus 3 in america which is $399. So even after conversion we are still getting gipped money. They just make a touch less.

Compared to Germany we get Tech at some bargin rate. Germany / France the big 2 euro countries.

Palit 1080 gamerock card in Uk is £594 on scan, the same card on german website geizhals.de is 779 euro. £594 in euro is 712 euro currently. Whos getting ripped off again??

Projections are just that Guess work. If World War 3 starts tonight your money is worth £0 Nil Nothing. Its got as much chance of happening as most of these projections do.

France, Italy, Spain and Greece are all in big trouble these are the facts. Greece needed another loan at the end of May just to keep it floating.

Spain has huge unemployment and entire cities empty. France could follow us if the right wing gets in charge.

Italys biggest bank will likely need money before the end of the month. Its lost 40% of its value since brexit. If they can not stabalise its money and get rid of the bad loans a bailout will be needed. Italy can not afford to do it themselves.

Germany is basically holding up the eurozone on its own financial wise.

£ - $ is currently 10 cent short of where it was at the monday of the brexit vote week. Which was $1.4345

£ - Euro was 1.27 its currently 1.20

( historical data is here https://www.oanda.com/solutions-for-business/historical-rates-beta/hcc.html)

We shall see where it all goes.

 

We shall indeed. Keeping in mind that news is trickling down the pipe that Brexit is not going to happen anytime soon, and when it does it will be a controlled process governed by a realpolitician, not a Brexiteer maniac chasing unicorns.

 

Thats a good thing surely nexxo?

 

Are you being serious here, its the same yes or no question, just with an inverted answer value.

 

What I am saying is, the question was not:

- Do you want to stay in the EU, or
- leave the EU but stay in the EEA, or
- leave the EU and EEA altogether and go back to WTO rules?

It just asked whether people wanted to stay in or leave the EU. Nothing more, nothing less. It did not specify what was the alternative which, as you say, makes it a pointless question. Perhaps Vote Leave should have pointed that out. But they weren't thinking of alternatives; they didn't have a vision beyond "out", beyond just-promise-whatever-gets-us-the-vote, unicorns, fairies, whatever. And that now comes back to bite them in the ass.

 

It's a lot better than the alternative.

 

Just wait until they all jump on the populist bandwagon in the run up to the general election, the demands for sparkling unicorns and pots of gold will probably make a return.

 

Yeah, but by that time Breality will have set in and we'll have had such a long-running tedious account of the Kafkaesque bureaucratic song and dance of Brexit that people will have switched off and moved onto their next discontent.

 

On a no vote, you have presented two options, leave the EU and stay in the EEA or leave the EEA as well. Given there are two possible options for an exit, the referendum in itself isn't pointless. However choosing one of those exit options basically does render everything pointless:Having the referendum, the time and expense of making the largely insignificant change, everything. Staying in the EEA essentially neuters the whole thing to the point that you might as well just tell everyone to shove it "we're staying in".

Voting out and jumping back to WTO rules would mean that the people who voted out get what they wanted as well as removing the UK from all EU entanglements which can't be done if Britain remains in the EEA. Now that would probably wreck the country, but it would mean the referendum had a purpose.

 

That why out of all the likely options Gove, Leadsom, Johnson most people seem relieved it is May. (including myself)

(Although Johnson would have been the best bet for leaving us in the EEA and I think May will surprise many who think she's a remainer. but we'll see who's right)

Dutch psychologists too smart for their own good?

Like I said labour have a 26% of the electorate core support they got 30% in the general election of 2015.

A core support can be eroded to the point of collapse like in scotland between 2003-2015. But they tend to take a lot of beating before they leave.

I was saying that a small section of core support of labour that desires a leave due to perceived issues of free movement had eroded to UKIP over the course of 2010-15. What I am saying is that labour core support is mostly safe as long as they make the right noises about supporting the referendum outcome.

The labour remain camp (largely london) have had little to complain about from labour.

However people like gordon brown's "bigotted woman" have got very tired of being called racist, ignored and those people will largely still vote labour but if they were put to an election where the labour party supported ignoring a referendum that would be the breaking point.

It takes a lot to dislodge a core voter. There is a discernible floor to a party's vote even under very stressful circumstances i.e michael foot 1983 at 27%.

The floating voters shift like sand, moderates left/right leaners are harder to move like loose rock, but the core are like the bedrock it will only be quickly destroyed in an unbelievable tempest otherwise it'll take years to erode.

Reading comprehension :

I said david davis and others.

I.e there is a strong social libertarian streak in the tory party david davis is just one.

The bigger danger comes from labour MPs who had no problem with 30 day, 45 day, 90 day detention who can be co-opted to pass the bill.

Nearly None of those things would have surprised me if they came out of the coalition government or the next false compromise between the tory and liberal manifesto.

They cut more than £20bn in coalition and they planned more themselves.
Their main complaint pre election was the "rollercoaster budget" towards the end of the parliament the tories got rid of anyway.
They cut corporation tax a few times in govt with the tories before.
You say junior doctors, I say LANSLEY reforms.

Housing benefit 18-21 year old 1) is still possible with children/special circumstance 2) the coalition had the bedroom tax, a freeze on working age benefit rises, IB-ESA reform, DLA-PIP reform.

Legal aid was cut under the coalition
Vince cable presided over the IPO of royal mail!
And they famously trippled tuition fees.

Barely any of this is not stuff they allowed the Tories to do last time or let them get away with similar or worse things.

Some have no comparison because they were come up with before the election like HA right to buy, academies.

All I can say is inheritance tax probably wouldn't have gone anywhere.

By now the conservatives have got rid of the roller coaster spending, are nearly at labour's fiscal plans, abandoned the fiscal rule and gave up on tax credit cuts.

Oh and on turning grants into loans. I say thank **** they did that. Massive simplification and much better system. Having had to go through the grants process, I'd have much proffered the non means tested loan. Not the Ideal but much better.

Of course people change their minds. I would have had a lot easier time believing May and Corbyn are anything but secret brexiteers if they actually put some effort in, you know like a major politician would do if they thought leaving would be a bad idea, and didn't purposely drop clangers.

This part of the debate is getting weary because I say "they said R/L in the past with passion and conviction without slip up" you say oh so you believe people cant change their minds and I say "but if they clearly will/likely will benefit from siding with R/L instead of their true side and they clearly don't make an effort for that side (may/corbyn) or don't expect it to win (johnson) then they are probably being stategic on some level"

Now if you think that crazy conspiracy theories are on the same level as believing top politician take positions for convenience, ambition and party unity then there's very little point beyond you saying I'm an unbelievable cynic and me stating that you're unbelievably naive.

There doesn't seem to be any conclusion here beyond that because i feel we've gone round in circles on this specifically.

I didn't know where you were basing that from.

For the purpose of international comparison use PPP dollars.

For domestic projections pounds are better.

So they're assuming 3% a year growth, well by historical standards that's very very optimistic.

Going off the historical trend 2-2.5% has been the trend growth rate. That gives a £2.4 -2.8tn GDP by 2030 if we go for a 3% growth loss bearing in mind that is being on WTO rules with no major trade deals to 2030 and is the higher end estimate that gives between £74bn to £84bn

Considering the NHS budget is currently around £120 billion that isn't the size of the current budget.

And considering that the NHS budget has always gone up in the long run with GDP at between 8-10% depending on the future funding path we go down then at the smallest the NHS budget would be around £200bn-220bn by then.

It's a growth in national income that has yet to be realised .

It's not a recession, it's a supply side decrease in the growth potential of the economy based on the assumption that we don't actually make any good moves post brexit trade wise and hold the regulatory, tax, legislative and public investment policy constant i.e ceteris paribus.

It's the difference between having your car repossessed and Jim bowen saying "look at what you could have won"*:


*"In 15 years time, assuming the show isn't cancelled by then anyway"

We have the gold standard in various areas of regulation.
English common law is widely found to be a favoured legal system in which companies wish to operate.
Investment and taxation will depend on the elected government of the day.

So yeah if we can already get stuff right over time, we can get more right.

 

The referendum was never meant to have a purpose besides a Tory political one. That is why the question was phrased in a way that was pointless.

However staying in the EEA is not exactly the same as staying in the EU. In the EEA:

- there is less EU legislation to adhere to overall;
- you are not subject to agriculture and fisheries policies (but get no subsidies either);
- you can strike your own bilateral trade agreements with third countries;
- you are subject to free movement of labour, but not free movement of people (which means people can apply for jobs but not come in and set up in self-employment);
- you can set a temporary 'emergency brake' on immigration.

So apart from free movement it almost delivers what most voters want, as polls also suggest.

I think May will do nothing that will threaten the City and economy, although I don't think she's aiming for EEA but some Swiss style arrangement. She is certainly quiet on have cake and eat it promises.

It is already happening. An interview with a Leaver in a Northern town stated that the vote has been a nice opportunity to "stick it to London" but he did not think that a Brexit would actually change anything for them. They've already started to move on.

 

But not as big brake as Cameron deal included. Cameron deal had a 7 year brake on EU migration; EEA emergency brake will not be allowed to be applied for long. Liechtenstein was and is a special case, UK is too big for the same reasoning to be applied.

 

I know. Cameron actually got a really good deal, but people wanted unicorns, not ponies.

Now they'll be lucky to get a pet hamster.

 

And she'll happily throw the rest of the nation to the dogs to protect her precious one percenters of London economy.

Switzerland has over a hundred treaties with the EU resulting from well over a decade of negotiations only for Switzerland to end up with pretty much the same deal as the EEA countries have, so really not much point going down that route and instead just go for the EEA.

 

Sorry but you basing this all on supposition, sand and rocks, give me a break.
You've provided no evidence of this supposed 26% of core voters, no evidence that some of these supposed core voters, who always vote the same way, decided not vote the same way and instead voted for UKIP.

Ahh so the catch all term of "others" besides you're talking about a single bill, what about the hundreds of other things a Conservative government has done since being unshackled from the Lib Dems.

So basically your say meh it's not a big deal, that in fact the Lib dems didn't act as a brake on the worst excesses of the Conservatives because you personally don't see them as excess, you really need to open your world view a little.

Yes we're going around in circles because you seem to be projecting your own beliefs onto people who have clearly stated they don't believe those things anymore, if taking people on their word makes me naive then so be it, I'd prefer that than your semi-delusional state where you project your own thoughts and feelings onto others, where you measure what people think based on the effort they put in and how you judge that effort.

I'd much prefer to take people on face value than descend into unhelpful thinking styles that border on paranoia.

So not the NHS budget but the Eduction budget, or the interest payments on the national debt, or defense, or many other departmental budgets.

And it's yet realised growth that's going to be felt by those least able to afford it, by those who are going to be adversely effected, when you're already on the bread line the potential of 2-3% less income is the difference between being able to keep warm or put food on the table.

You really are living in cloud cuckoo land aren't you, in case you've not noticed these things you consider we've got right have adversely effected some people more than others, those people wouldn't say we got things right, they'd say you have to get out more and see how these things you consider to be right things are not for them.

 

Yeah, but a Swiss EFTA arrangement will look like hard bargaining whereas just moving into EEA looks like capitulation. It's all about appearances.

 

Greetings!

So, today is "MayDay"?

 

Maybe. Maybe not.

 

Considering the lowest vote share labour got was 27% under the disasterous michael foot and labour are still polling 28-32% I'd say it's a good estimate

He's just the most prominent of that type of tory, there are others and may has had to try to compromise with them in parliament or other voting blocks in parties to push through the bill.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jul/12/panel-theresa-may

I had four rough categories:
1) Was policies of the same ilk that the coalition did.
housin benefit compare to every cut in the DWP in the last parliament
More cuts in last parliament than this
Legal aid cuts
royal mail sell off
They let the Lansley reforms through which the junior doctors contract barely compares to.
They trippled tuition fees in LP compared to changing grants into loans in CP
Corporation tax cuts

2) Policies being enacted now that weren't being sought by the tories in the last coalition
HA right to buy

3) Policies that have had a brake put on them due to small majority rather than needing the lib dems:
Trade union bill
investigatory powers

4) Policies the tories couldn't have got through in coalition
Inheritance tax
Trade union bill


What I am saying is the LDs let through the same and far worse in coalition with the tories as they are doing now. With only a few small exceptions based on their previous record that I could see not happening if the Tories were in coalition now.

Corbyn office 'sabotaged' EU Remain campaign

Oh and what does boris's dad think of him

Boris the Europhile

Louise Mencsh?