E.U: Leave or Stay? Your thoughts.

Honestly I'm more worried about the next few months and whether I'll have enough more to pay the bills and keep food in my belly.

Beep! Beep! I'm ready to serve master.

 

But Farage promised everyone would get their very own cybernetic octopus overlord riding a sparkling unicorn and now we'll have to settle for plain robots?

Oh well, still better than the current government

 

First off I should note I voted remain and half my family is Polish

Kind of.

The markets are predominantly very short term in there views which makes things move about a lot more than if they took a longer term view. Lets not forget its silly emotional humans behind the whole thing and some even stupider computer programs.

The pound is dropping for no real reason atm in my opinion, was anything said in the Tory conference really that much of a surprise to any of us?

I don't know your personal situation so can't really comment. But if it helps I've been in that situation and came out the other side relatively unscathed except for a phobia of custard creams.

 

The strong nativist tone of it was pretty unsettling to me. Theresa May was supposed to be the sensible, safe-pair-of-hands one. Instead the conference said things that even UKIP party members balked at.

 

I've never really got the sensible, safe option bit tbh.

She's been painted as this moderate centre leaning MP, when all I've seen is Anti Eu/Anti immigration and mass surveillance ideas for the last 6 years.

 

Yeah, exactly. She's a bit of a looper.

 

Certainly seems a fascist; Farage without the easygoing demagogic charm. I suspect that her modest "just getting on with the job" persona just hid mediocrity. Now she is in the alpha seat she is revealed as inept, socially clumsy and lacking in vision.

 

Not just alpha seat, but also put her cronies in the beta seats, plus there is zero opposition from other parties as the Lib Dems have sunk back to irrelevance, UKIP has lost its sole purpose and Labour is to busy tearing itself apart.

Welcome to the single party "democracy", hopefully by 2020 the other parties grow a spine...

 

Well, this seems to be how the markets see it.

Meanwhile Boris Johnson now says that the UK should support an EU army.

 

There's always reasons and they can range from inflation, interest rates, speculation, competitiveness, strength of other currencies, current account deficit, government debt, government intervention, and/or economic growth/recession.

What was said at the Conservative conference was a surprise to me, despite the rhetoric of a country that works for everyone it seemed the opposite was true, i was expecting them to move to the center and even though that what they told everyone it was clear they've tacked pretty severely to the right, we've basically got a bunch a nutters in parliament on both sides now.

We all come out the other side, well unless it puts you six foot under, i just don't want to spend another Christmas trying to sleep in the stairwell of a multistory car park.

 

Meanwhile, how the EU sees it:

According to Standard Eurobarometer 85 (fieldwork May 2016, after the Balkan migration crisis and after the Bataclan attack in France), support for free movement of EU citizens is on average 79% across the EU, with 16% against.

Germany: 86% for, 11% against.
France: 82% for, 13% against.

Lowest support among the EU27 = 
Italy: 68% for, 22% against.



To put the ‘massive’ UK's contribution to the EU budget into some perspective:

In 2014, the UK's gross contribution to the EU was 0.5% of UK's GDP = 1.1% of public spending. NET contribution was 0.2% of GDP = 0.5% of public spending. The UK's net contribution is only about 4% of the total EU budget.

After Brexit, if the "missing" UK's money is evenly distributed across the EU27, each of the 27 EU members will have to pay about 0.1% of its total public spending (= about 0.05% of its GDP) more into the EU budget compared to its present contribution. I think they'll manage.

 

Greetings!

UK has the rebate. It should have been paying ~50% more.
It was a club member with full benefits but lower fee.

 

That's certainly how the EU sees it; not just the politicians but also the electorates. The EU can go as rough as it wants on the UK ,regardless of economic consequences, with full endorsement and support of the people. Turns out mainland Europeans have principles too.

EDIT: I cannot decide whether May is just playing a really clever game or doesn't know WTF she's doing. Problem is, I just can't believe she is that smart. However Nissan boss Carlos Ghosn looked fairly happy after he left his meeting with her, so I wonder what she's got up her sleeve.

 

I'm quietly hoping that once the economic negatives kick in with full force - grocery prices, fuel prices, stagnating interest rates, etc as well as the indyref2 that she can just turn around and say "it doesn't seem worth it to leave economically without entering a self imposed 10-15 year recession".

I can hope right?

 

Cant see her doing that even if it got really bad, ATM she's walking a tightrope with a crocodile filled swamp on one side and a bear pit on the other, it's who a lot of the rhetoric coming out of their conference was aimed at, she would need the vast majority of Eurosceptics in both the country and her own party to change their minds or risk tearing her party in two.

In other news it seems more legal challenges are being brought, this time against the politicians who lied throughout the referendum campaign, something i hope is successful in bringing about some change, not so much in overturning the result but in forcing politicians to adhere to some sort of standard when it comes to campaigning in the future.

I'd be happy to if a government just promised to give me tax payers money as way of compensation.

 

Well, she can always pay it from the £350 million per week that is going to the NHS.

 

Not how people work, I'm afraid. Leave voters will never admit that they made the wrong choice but simply continue reinforcing their belief that it's all the EU/immigrants' fault.

It's already happening. Leavers who were pushing hardest to invoke Article 50 right away were most put out to learn that the EU wants the UK to hurry up and leave too. The Leavers who were agitating for a hard Brexit are now angry with Tusk saying that this in fact is the only option on the table. How dare the EU not beg us to stay? How dare it not come crawling back to us in supplication after we rejected it (doesn't it know who we are)?!

 

I don't think she knows what she's doing, pretty much like everyone who starts a new job time will tell.

For the same reason your hoping leavers will be proved wrong they will hope the opposite.

 

My bet is she's got a pretty good idea of what she's doing, it only seems she doesn't as nonbelievers like yourself see the inconsistencies, true believers tend to lose objectivity.

The problem for me is leavers already seem to be ignoring any and all evidence that points to negative consequences, although that seems fairly characteristic.