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E.U: Leave or Stay? Your thoughts.

Discussion in 'Serious' started by TheBlackSwordsMan, 22 Feb 2016.

  1. Archtronics

    Archtronics Minimodder

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    Finding it tough to admit your wrong is probably symptomatic of being human unfortunately.

    I listened to an interview recently about Alan Greenspan, very interestingly highlighted how even though he knew he was wrong and knew the fix. He couldn't bring himself to admit it and loose the admiration of Washington and other economists.
     
  2. Nexxo

    Nexxo * Prefab Sprout – The King of Rock 'n' Roll

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    Let's analyse what we do know. I think it's safe to say that May is not a Europhile, but not a hard-core Brexiteer either. I also think that she does not intend to go into history as the PM who presided ovet the UK's economic self-destruction --too much ego for that.

    She put the Three Brexiteers in charge of Brexit and foreign affairs. She could now just leave them to it and disavow any responsibility for the outcome and let the next general elections decide how the electorate judges the resulting mess, but instead she has put herself at the centre of the process and is taking total control. Moreover in true dictatorial style, by channelling (even outdoing) the far-right Tories and UKIP during the party conference, she has now won their unconditional trust.

    Her committee for Brexit is a finely chosen 50/50 balance between Brexiteers and Remainers. She really could not leave out the former, but she has made sure to include an equal number of the latter.

    So there are elements that say to me that she knows exactly what she is doing and is playing a game of step-by-step pragmatic manoeuvring. I think that she does not have a clear idea of what Brexit will be, but she is intent on preserving economic benefits while appearing to have given the public exactly what it wants. If she pulls it off, her seat on the throne will be guaranteed for the next decade.

    On the other hand I like to think that the leaders of this country should at least be smarter than I am, and therefore may be engaged in wishful thinking.
     
  3. Corky42

    Corky42 Where's walle?

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    True but there comes a time when the weight of evidence starts to mount and it becomes unreasonable to maintain a contradictory opinion, that's not to say we're anywhere near that with Brexit as we'll only really know the full impact some 10-20 years from now.

    However the short-term evidence so far is pointing to a negative outcome and it's going to need something big to turn things around, something i can't see coming as not only am i probably biased but all i can see are more negative impacts down the road.

    Honestly i don't think she or her party cares much about that, it can always be spun into a positive, what she and her party does care about however is their own party, this started as a way to stop their party tearing itself apart and it remains so, party first, power second, individual MPs third, and the country comes in last, at least IMHO.

    She can't do anything else to do so would reflect badly on the party as a whole, if they're seen to preside over a mess people will consider them a party in disarray and not fit to govern, people will see them like most people already see Labour.

    Whatever the outcome it will be spun as a good thing, it will be spun as the Conservatives enacting the will of the people and being a coherent party carrying out the will of the people in the best way possible, even if we see armageddon we'll be told how it would have been much worse, how they've done the best of a bad job.

    Not wishful thinking, just self preservation and a lust to remain in power.
     
  4. rollo

    rollo Modder

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    If SNP get there 2nd ref can we vote them out of the uk if they fail a second time. They would currently be either bankrupt or on super taxes to fund a bill. That the wonders of Oil would cover so she said. Instead its what 50% of Aberdeen on Unemployment. ( 100k made redundent in and around the area at last check) ( http://www.irishtimes.com/business/...erdeen-as-oil-price-slump-hits-home-1.2768374)

    Was up there the other week cheapest place to buy a Beamer this side of Asia. Most assume Oil will recover in Scotland, Why pay a person £80k a year when you can get Filipino, Indian, Malaysian crews on around £2 an hour.

    The price of Scotlands Freedom is Cuts, Taxes, Unemployment.

    The Price of UKs brexit is likely something very similar.
     
  5. Nexxo

    Nexxo * Prefab Sprout – The King of Rock 'n' Roll

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    And the most depressing thing is: the people will gobble it up like candy.

    Meanwhile: "What bus?". No extra money for the NHS.
     
  6. theshadow2001

    theshadow2001 [DELETE] means [DELETE]

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    Might as well have freedom if those are the options.
     
  7. Anfield

    Anfield Multimodder

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    It won't happen, Sturgeon is delusional if she thinks May would ever allow IndyRef2 to happen.
    While technically Scotland could just declare independence without England agreeing to it, the economic consequences would be far too dire for Scotland.
     
  8. Nexxo

    Nexxo * Prefab Sprout – The King of Rock 'n' Roll

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    Depends. If Scotland really gets screwed by Brexit, the Scottish people may well go for it. Remember how Brexit was won by people who wanted to give Cameron a kicking.
     
  9. Nexxo

    Nexxo * Prefab Sprout – The King of Rock 'n' Roll

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  10. Corky42

    Corky42 Where's walle?

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    It looks like he's been suspended.

    It's rather ironic though that democracy only seems a valid argument if everyone agrees with you.
     
  11. Tynecider

    Tynecider Since ZX81

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    Euro 'house of cards' to collapse, warns ECB prophet Professor Otmar Issing


    Full story here:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/10/16/euro-house-of-cards-to-collapse-warns-ecb-prophet/

    Brexit will be a walk in the park compared to what is heading for the EU, Brexit is full of unknown's, sure. But we can control the outcome.
    The EU was destined to fail, Not by design, by neglect and ignorance.
    The mantra of "More EU federalisation" as an answer to problems has been seized upon by dubious types with what can only amount to a top-down technocratic attitude.
     
  12. Anfield

    Anfield Multimodder

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  13. Nexxo

    Nexxo * Prefab Sprout – The King of Rock 'n' Roll

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    Australia has said the same. And China. And...

    LOL at the comments in the Independent though: "How very dare he say that! What does he know?! Who is he anyway?!" etc. Oh, just the US trade representative. Nobody you need to take notice of, I'm sure. :p
     
  14. Tynecider

    Tynecider Since ZX81

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    What so wrong about it, it's common sense.

    You don't marry another lass until you have your divorce in order do you.
    And coming from a guy who is going to be looking for a new job soon, hardly a man in the know.
    He's the no-mark that got all those good trade deals for America isn't he? And the guy that came over with Obama to tell us how to do business.

    Can't even find a wiki on him, He must be good.

    Are there any trade experts in here that could enlighten.
     
  15. Nexxo

    Nexxo * Prefab Sprout – The King of Rock 'n' Roll

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    I thought you had enough of experts?

    But here's a British trade expert:

    Also:

    If you could not find a Wiki on Michael Froman, all I can say is that you obviously didn't look very hard.

    Here's an explanation of what his job actually involves. Frankly to dismiss him as a nobody or "not in the know" sounds a bit pathetic. I mean, there's denial and then there's reality distortion.

    Nor would I count on him being gone if Hillary Clinton wins. Nor would I count on Trump's nominee for the job saying anything different. Trump, you may well find, takes an even tougher line in trade negotiations than Clinton.

    What he is saying is, as you say, common sense. The UK needs to be out of the EU for trade deals to be brokered. But he also says, as trade representatives from other countries have mentioned, that it also needs to be clear what Britain's continued relationship with the EU will be. Now that little detail should make you sit up and ask yourself why that seems to matter. And that has everything to do with how strong a bargaining position the UK will be in. If it continues to be the single market, then the UK is in a strong bargaining position, and moreover continues to act as a gateway to the single market for other countries (as it has been doing). If the UK leaves the single market however, it is in a weak bargaining position, more dependent on trade deals with other countries, but has less to offer. That is why no country will move until it knows where the UK ends up.

    But, you know, keep drinking the Brexit koolaid like it's a religion.
     
    Last edited: 18 Oct 2016
  16. Nexxo

    Nexxo * Prefab Sprout – The King of Rock 'n' Roll

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    Meanwhile as predicted UKIP is imploding. I predict that mainstream British politics is only a year or so behind.

    The UK will not unite after Brexit. This **** will run and run, and get more and more messy and complicated. Cameron opened Pandora's box.
     
  17. Anfield

    Anfield Multimodder

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    Last Party standing, the new "democracy":eyebrow:
     
  18. RedFlames

    RedFlames ...is not a Belgian football team

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    So it turns out you *can* knock sense into people... kinda...
     
  19. Nexxo

    Nexxo * Prefab Sprout – The King of Rock 'n' Roll

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    Remember how a couple of banks failing in the US in 2008 nearly took the global economy down? In a global economy there is no "out". If the EU fails, the UK will go down with it, never mind whether in the Eurozone or not, whether in the EU or not. Of course had it stayed in the EU it could have used its considerable power and influence (ironically the single market is practically Margaret Thatcher's creation) to avert any such disaster. But it's out now, so whatever the EU-27 --the second largest economic block right next door-- does will have maximum impact on the UK economy but the UK will have no say in it.

    Taking back control? The Brexiteers haven't even got a plan. Just empty promises and bluister (Johnson now says that the UK can get an even better deal with the EU outside of it than in), and histrionic rage towards anyone who suggests that maybe this is a bad idea (like accusing Hammond of "thinking like an accountant", as if that is a bad thing to do for a man in charge of the nation's finances). Apparently people just have to show more faith and positivity. Because that's all Brexit needs, apparently: just be positive and believe. Meanwhile the PM plans to overrule parliamentary sovereignty and a Tory councillor puts up a government petition to make even thinking about remaining part of the EU a crime of treason (yes: thought crime is now a thing, apparently). UKIP is having fist-fights in European Parliament and is imploding.

    It doesn't take a genius to work out that this is all displacement behaviour. They're in a panic and don't know what to do.

    The idea that Brexit will give you control, when its outcome relies on negotiations with 27 EU countries, on replicating trade deals with another 53 nations as a much smaller economy and on getting your WTO tariffs ratified by all those and 83 additional countries besides is frankly delusional. Global economy: no "out".

    Prophet indeed. You need to stop treating Brexit as a ****ing religion.
     
    Last edited: 18 Oct 2016
  20. Nexxo

    Nexxo * Prefab Sprout – The King of Rock 'n' Roll

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    The UK approach to trade deals with countries like India:

    Yup, Britain is going to make some great trade deals and control immigration!
     

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