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E.U: Leave or Stay? Your thoughts.

Discussion in 'Serious' started by TheBlackSwordsMan, 22 Feb 2016.

  1. RedFlames

    RedFlames ...is not a Belgian football team

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    That's the thing with Brexit, it turns our relationship with the EU in to the very thing Brexiteres claimed it was before the referendum.
     
  2. Anfield

    Anfield Well-Known Member

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    I called it long ago:

    The only way to avoid a border in Ireland is to effectively keep NI in the Single Market, including all regulatory alignment that entails.
    Which then of course forces the UK to choose one of the following three:

    Option 1: Extend that regulatory alignment to the entire UK
    Option 2: Put up an internal border against NI
    Option 3: Give NI back
    (Option 2 and 3 are absolute red lines for the DUP, choosing those would collapse the Tory / DUP alliance)

    And to make it even more complicated:
    Places like Scotland and Gibraltar will not allow England to do so without extreme scrutiny.
     
    Last edited: 9 Feb 2018
  3. Nexxo

    Nexxo Bargaining chip

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    That's because you understand the situation better than the government does (which isn't hard, I admit, but still).

    I don't see the government ever getting united around that. I think we have a cabinet in deadlock. This is why they keep having meetings that have no conclusive outcome. That's why it keeps trying to bounce the ball back to the EU to "make an offer" (which it has done since October 2016). I think that when the deadline rolls around in March, there will be no position, and

    1. negotiations will fail and the UK will head for a crash into the WTO;
    2. the government will fall and Doris will blow her top at another GE.

    I also think that the EU knows all that and is happy to play hardball: either the UK change its mind about Brexit (unlikely, but win for EU), or it decides to stay in the EEA (win for EU) or it crashes into WTO and suffers the economic consequences (win for EU).
     
  4. Corky42

    Corky42 What did walle eat for breakfast?

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    The government doesn't have to unite around anything, all it has to do is the same as its been doing since the election last year, fudge something together so they can remain in power until 2022 or for Mrs May personally until March 2019.

    The recent dispute over the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland exposed that all to plainly IMO, their trying to keep everyone happy by kicking decisions that would lead to a vote of no confidence or a collapse in government into the long grass: We don't want a hard border and don't want to remain in the SM or CU.

    If the government admits leaving the SM or CU would result in a hard border then they'd probably lose the support of the DUP and their majority in parliament, if they said their going to remain in the SM or CU so as to avoid a hard border and limit the economic damage then it would probably lead to the Brexiteers within Mrs May's own party rebelling and triggering a vote of no confidence in her.

    Instead their kicking problems like these into the long grass by either saying they're a matter for negotiations or equivocating so they don't have to commit to a decision, if they can drag things out long enough they can make out like they were successful and whoever came after them screwed everything up
     
  5. Nexxo

    Nexxo Bargaining chip

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    Problem is, the UK Brexits end March 2019 regardless, which is a long way away from 2022. That is three years for the country to experience the sunny uplands of the WTO under Tory rule before it gets to express its opinion of that in the GE. So there is a time limit on the fudge.

    The EU knows that, which is why it is adamant about the time limit of the transition and is intent to make it as unfavourable as possible.

    May may well step down when it all goes to pot in 2019 and hand the mess to Boris. He'll **** up spectacularly, and we're back at the GE in 2022.
     
  6. Anfield

    Anfield Well-Known Member

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    Screwed if they do, screwed if they don't...

    But that is the bed they made with their promises.
     
  7. Corky42

    Corky42 What did walle eat for breakfast?

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    True but it seems, to me at least, that they're trying to paint themselves as not being screwed and they're trying to postpone things so someone else gets the blame for the messy bed that we're all going to be lying in.

    @ Nexxo, There was a time limit on the first round of negotiations but the government is now saying how it successfully negotiated and concluded them, it didn't but that's what it's saying, the transition phase is only going to serve as another way to kick the difficult decision into the long grass for either Mrs May herself or for her party.

    The transition phase will take them up to 2020 at which point they can either, if Mrs May is still around, replace her with a new leader or call a GE and leave the mess for someone else to sort out.

    I'm not trying to predicting how things will pan out as anything can happen in politics, I'm just saying what my observations are of how and what the government and Mrs are trying to do currently, that is refusing to commit to anything that would sink the ship, being ambiguous, and trying to spin what their doing as successful.

    Basically doing whatever they can to retain their grasp on power for as long as possible while proclaiming how successful they were in the hope that someone else will come along to carry the can and receive all the blame.
     
    Last edited: 10 Feb 2018
  8. Nexxo

    Nexxo Bargaining chip

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    I think you're right, but I also get the impression that the EU won't let them fudge it to the end of transition (including fudging its deadline). Barnier is clearly saying that the withdrawal negotiations are not concluded and must first be written in legal text, and also that the UK must say what it wants, before it can proceed with transition negotiations. It also insists on the transition end date, which is earlier than the UK asked for. I suspect that the EU is systematically cutting off any opportunity for the UK to keep fudging things, which is why I suspect the crisis will hit far sooner than 2020.
     
    Last edited: 10 Feb 2018
  9. Corky42

    Corky42 What did walle eat for breakfast?

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    Yea, i think the EU caught onto what the UK was doing after the first round of negotiations and how the UK government spun that, however if the EU backs the government into a situation where it's forced to commit to something and that leads to an early election or Mrs May stepping down it doesn't really change the situation, only when it happens.

    Someone else will still be left carrying the can, be that a labour government or Mrs May's replacement, and everyone involved up to that point can proclaim how successful they were and that its all gone wrong because of them, not us.
     
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  10. adidan

    adidan Avatar is nearly back in season.

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    Unfortunately that'll be all of us.
     
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  11. adidan

    adidan Avatar is nearly back in season.

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    I'm surprised we've not had a economic backup plan of getting all government owned pcs to start cryptomining...
     
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  12. Corky42

    Corky42 What did walle eat for breakfast?

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    Some more so than others though, the rich and powerful will be largely unaffected by the consequences, some will undoubtedly turn brexit into an advantage.

    The "us" that will be effected the most are the sections of society that always suffer the most when there's dramatic political or economic upheavals, it will be the poor, the disaffected, the vulnerable, the minorities, and the same towns and cities that were largely ignored in the decades following the last upheaval.
     
  13. RedFlames

    RedFlames ...is not a Belgian football team

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    The very ones who voted brexit because '**** it, it can't get any worse...'
     
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  14. Corky42

    Corky42 What did walle eat for breakfast?

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    True, but it's not like they weren't aware that it would make them poorer.

    IIRC the general consensus among people who intended to vote leave was that they knew it would make them poorer in the short to mid term but that it was a price worth paying, that we'd eventually be better off in the long term (long term being some undefined time in the future).
     
  15. Nexxo

    Nexxo Bargaining chip

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    Then let them eat cake. You know, the glorious Brexit quantum cake that you can have and eat at the same time. :p

    I am at the moment visiting my brother in the Netherlands (a profound Eurosceptic, while his partner is pro-EU-- although even my brother thinks leaving the Single Market would be insanity). I forgot how nice The Hague is --it's a bit like Marylebone in London but without the crazy crowds or prices, and a lot more relaxed overall. If things go to pot in the UK, I could happily move back here.
     
  16. Corky42

    Corky42 What did walle eat for breakfast?

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    It's all good though as Mrs May is going to put all our minds to rest next week when she gives her "road to Brexit" speech, we sure could do with it as apparently we've not got a clue about what we want to achieve from Brexit.

    I guess deciding what we want to achieve almost two years after the vote is better than nothing. :)
     
  17. Nexxo

    Nexxo Bargaining chip

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    It's funny. Here in the Netherlands, Dutch people treat my British wife with nothing but respect. One lady was telling me how lucky I was to have married her and live in the UK because she loves Britain. The Dutch are huge Anglophiles.

    Brexit is absolutely nowhere in the papers or the news. It's a non-issue. No "Why did they do it?", no "How will this affect our economy?", no "We should/shouldn't follow suit". There is zero interest. Neither is there anything about the EU in general. There is one casual mention of Trump as a throwback to The Little House on the Prairie American nostalgia.

    Conclusion: whatever Leavers may think: nobody here hates the UK. Quite the contrary. Neither is anybody worried about Brexit. It doesn't even seem to register on people’s consciousness. It certainly seems not to have prompted any re-examination of the Netherlands' relationship to the EU.

    Neither does anybody seem to feel that the EU is some big monolithic presence on their lives or a threat to the national identity. No paper mentioned the EU even once. The country seems firmly occupied with its own affairs, over which it appears to feel full control.
     
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  18. Guest-23315

    Guest-23315 Guest

    My parents spent 13 years over there and always said the same thing.. Except around Hollands Spoor where they just plain hate everyone.
     
  19. hyperion

    hyperion Active Member

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    Schrodinger's Brexit! I'm all for letting theoretical physicists take over the negotiations :D
     
  20. adidan

    adidan Avatar is nearly back in season.

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    Some Brits in the Netherlands have been allowed to take their case to the EU court in relation to what constitutes being an EU citizen.

    Don't blame them, take advantage of free movement but stay away too long and they weren't even allowed to vote.
     
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