E.U: Leave or Stay? Your thoughts.

To play Devils advocate a third choice would be the UK try's to fix the ship but it sinks anyway and pulls everyone down. A little like seeing the iceberg but it's too late to turn the ship around.

 

The possibility of drowning later Vs the certainty of drowning now? I know which I'd rather choose.

As I keep saying: there is no 'out'. If the UK Brexits it will not even have WTO status to fall back on. It will have nothing. The UK will be in an unprecedented business, trade and investment limbo for the next decade while it:

• tries to reform a government (led by the guys who, it becomes blatantly obvious, did not even bother to do a basic feasibility study of a Brexit in the twenty years they lobbied for it);
• tries to choose and assemble a skilled team of trade negotiators out of thin air;
• tries to decide what relationship to renegotiate with the EU, with what compromises (expect lengthy, vicious bickering in the Leave camp with lots of unrealistic demands the basic feasibility of which has, again, never been explored);
• once eventually decided, triggers Article 50 and tries to conduct these badly prepared negotiations in 2 years with a EU team that has been doing this for a living since the last forty years;
• and when it almost certainly fails to do that, it has to go back to the WTO and initiate identical renegotiations, on an identical basis, with not 27 but now 161 nations which may last up to a decade. From a position of economic weakness and governmental incompetence.

Do you think that foreign investors will merrily carry on investment in the UK while all this is going on? Do you think they'll continue trading with UK companies? Do you think financial services will stay based there? Do you think UK business will thrive under these conditions? Do you think the GBP will hold up? For the next decade or so?

"Oh, but we could be like Singapore!" Sure, because UK's Victorian economy translates so well to that of a tiny entrepot city state with a 50% immigrant workforce which happens to be a founding member of ASEAN, the EU of Asia. Totally comparable.

Brexit is like trying to prevent undesirables from entering your house by burning it to the ground.

 

Who knows, its always been a choice between stay the same or the mystery box.

From a personal (selfish) standpoint my buisness does very little with the Eu. Predominatly our contracts come from the US/Rich arab states and more recently China, the biggest of which are in place for the next 5-10 years.

 

Does Britain operate under EU trade deals with these countries though? If you do then it could put your company in Limbo as Britain renegotiates. If they don't all well and good.

 

Indeed. And in a Brexit you won't have a WTO relationship to fall back on either --they would also have to be renegotiated. So even if the UK has a direct bilateral trade deal with those countries through the WTO, it would still be in limbo.

I don't get why people think a Brexit is at worst a mystery box. Over the last months every reason for a Brexit has been shot down:

• It won't reduce immigration
• It won't improve business
• It won't increase sovereignty
• It won't preserve the UK from a collapse in the EU economy

What it will do is potentially trigger an economic crisis while at the same time putting the UK in a state of economic and commercial limbo with the rest of the world for a good decade.

But even if, for the sake of argument, it is a "mystery box", is that seriously Vote Leave's proposition? "We don't know what the alternative will be; we didn't really think it through, it's just kind of a list of wishes and hopes, but still, it's got to be better than staying in the EU, right? Right?". I mean, is that a serious political policy?

Some Leave campaigners seem to realise this and are starting to try and paint a picture of the alternative. And that is (drum roll): staying in EFTA while the UK considers its options. Problem is: EFTA requires free movement of EU immigrants. Wasn't that what the whole Brexit was about? It is for a significant chunk of the Leave voters.

So we now have:
- If the UK votes Leave, yes we will Brexit, just not right now, we'll wait until we feel ready to trigger article 50 (I'm sure the world will continue investing, lending, trading with us as usual in the meantime).
- We will join EFTA. We will still need to pay membership fees of course, and accept EU immigration, and comply with many EU regulations that we now don't have a say in, but it will be better, right?

I guess there will be a lot of disappointed people not getting their unicorn after all.

 

There's a couple of small niggles but essentially no.

Without derailing the thread.
Essentially there's no tariffs on our work, there's been a few calls to implement them by the US but nothing that concerns us. Especially since our US market is shrinking and the Chinese/Middle East side is growing.


Didn't say it was Vote leaves proposition, simply stating the it's either stick with what you know or take a gamble with the mystery box. As always it's likely you will loose gambling because the house always wins. but people like gambling on the idea that one thing will solve all of life's problems, hence why it will be so close.

Me, as above I'm not too concerned either way, I come from a very poor background so even if society collapses it will just be a familiar face.

 

The United Kingdom is the 9th largest export economy in the world and the 11th most complex economy according to the Economic Complexity Index (ECI). In 2014, the United Kingdom exported $472B and imported $663B, resulting in a negative trade balance of $191B. In 2014 the GDP of the United Kingdom was $2.99T and its GDP per capita was $40.2k.

The top exports of the United Kingdom are Cars ($46B), Gold ($37.4B), Crude Petroleum ($23.1B), Refined Petroleum ($22.1B) and Packaged Medicaments ($19.6B), using the 1992 revision of the HS (Harmonized System) classification. Its top imports are Cars ($47.3B), Crude Petroleum ($34.1B), Refined Petroleum ($27.7B), Packaged Medicaments ($21.5B) and Computers ($16.9B).

The top export destinations of the United Kingdom are the United States ($51B), Germany ($46.5B), the Netherlands ($34.2B), Switzerland ($33.6B) and France ($27B). The top import origins are Germany ($100B), China ($62.7B), the Netherlands ($50.7B), the United States ($44.4B) and France ($41.5B).

Exports

In 2014 the United Kingdom exported $472B, making it the 9th largest exporter in the world. During the last five years the exports of the United Kingdom have increased at an annualized rate of 6.8%, from $339B in 2009 to $472B in 2014. The most recent exports are led by Cars which represent 9.7% of the total exports of the United Kingdom, followed by Gold, which account for 7.91%.

Imports

In 2014 the United Kingdom imported $663B, making it the 5th largest importer in the world. During the last five years the imports of the United Kingdom have increased at an annualized rate of 6.2%, from $490B in 2009 to $663B in 2014. The most recent imports are led by Cars which represent 7.12% of the total imports of the United Kingdom, followed by Crude Petroleum, which account for 5.13%.


Source: OEC http://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/gbr/

When other top economies depend on doing business with you, They will not make things difficult when it comes time to sign trade deals, no matter what the doom and gloom might say.


EDIT:

ONS report on population in the news:

"The population of England is set surge by more than four million in the next decade as parts of the south prepare to see the number of inhabitants swell by up to a quarter, official projections show.

New estimates, drawn up to help councils and the NHS plan ahead, expose the full impact of years of mass immigration on top of a revolution in life expectancy.

Immigration is set to account for almost half of the expected population expansion, which would also official rank London as one of the world’s megacities – passing the 10 million mark - for the first time."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/25/population-surge-to-change-the-face-of-england-forever/

The Official figures:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...e-population-aged-65-and-over-growing-fastest

 

1. The Netherlands is the sixth-largest export economy, right after Japan. A country one-sixth the size of the UK and with one-third the population. Germany is the fourth (which does more business with the commonwealth countries than the UK, incidentally). The UK is no big deal.

2. UK trade under current favourable conditions, regulations and tariffs should not be compared with UK trade when those favourable conditions, regulations and tariffs are lost. When the UK Brexits, it also drops out of WTO trade agreements. Per default there will be a hike of import and export tariffs on UK goods. Do you really think that under those conditions what the UK sells could not be got cheaper and easier somewhere else? Think again.

You buy 46% of stuff from Europe, but Europe only sells 10% of their stuff to you. And most member states, which will have a veto on any new trade arrangements between the EU and UK don't buy from, or sell to the UK anything much at all, so it's no skin off their backs.

As Leavers do, you are looking at this from an egocentric viewpoint. You have to look at it from the viewpoint of the rest of the world.

Even Vote Leave has now admitted that if they win, they won't want to trigger Article 50 rightaway. They'll want to think about their options for a few years (and of course those couple of years of indecision will not affect foreign investment, loans and trade at all). They are now talking about joining EFTA, which still means paying a membership fee, allowing free movement and complying with a raft of EU regulations. Basically now that Vote Leave, after two decades of lobbying, is finally thinking about it, it is realising that "Out" is not so simple after all.

 

When 44% of your exports are flowing to a single trading block made up of 28 counties that equals around 2% per country, whose in the better bargaining position the counties that would only lose 2% of their imports or the one that would lose 44% of its exports?

It's not a matter of other top economies depending on us it's that we depend on them, if you want to imagine how post Brexit negotiations would go then i suggest you watch this.

And whats the UK doing to prepare for that?

Are we building new hospitals, doctors surgeries, houses, towns, road, rail, and all the other infrastructure that's needed for a growing population, are we training and educating our current population sufficiently so we don't have to fill the skills gap with 150k non-EU migrants each year?

 

Oh, missed that one. Alright then:

50% of current immigration are non-EU nationals. They also tend to be the costly ones: non-productive, sometimes elderly family members coming to join their husband/wife/children. If the UK government could cut immigration, don't you think it would start with those, now?

The reality is, governments can't control immigration. They can only direct the flow a little. Western foreign policy creates a 'push' (we indirectly contribute to poverty and war in developing countries, forcing people to come to us --see Afghan, Iraqi and Syrian refugees for a graphic example) and our economies, doing well at the expense of those countries, also creates a 'pull' of immigrants. If you stop them at the border, they'll just try to get in illegally. And since the UK has 34 million tourists visiting each year that would in many cases be as simple as overstaying your visa. Come to visit; just don't get back on the plane home.*

Putting aside the fact that Theresa May has cut the Border Control Force budget by 15% only this April, the only way you can even try to get a handle on this, is for everyone to be legally obliged to carry an ID card and for the police to do random spot checks in the street --of course of everyone who looks a bit foreign. It will be fun to be stopped several times a day because you look a bit swarthy. I recall from history that this plan was nixed in the last Labour government as the general public didn't like the societal implications of this.

The Netherlands has a population twice as dense as that of Britain and it seems to work OK. You have space for at least another 60 million people, from where this Dutchman is sitting. Moreover you have a growing ageing population** which needs an ever larger younger workforce to keep its state pensions topped up. You should be educating a dynamic skilled workforce for a 21st Century high-skill-based labour market. But you're not: you persist in educating kids to be Victorian factory fodder, while farting around the edges of your obsolete education system with "Academies" that nobody wants and have no evidence base in educational science, while you cut the education budget by another 12% or so and hike University fees from £0,-- to £9000,-- (plus inflation) per year within the last two decades so that the most valuable productive education becomes totally unaffordable for most people. So where do we get all the skilled craftspeople, engineers, IT specialists, software developers, scientists, etc. that a modern UK economy needs to stay competitive in the world and produce those valuable exports? Why, from abroad, of course.

At the same time the NHS had a 15% budget cut only last year. Student nurses have lost their grants; we are now at a point where nurses-in-training are paying the NHS to please work there. It costs £70.000,-- to train a nurse; the NHS rather spends that money on hiring three qualified ones from abroad.

Of course Jeremy Hunt also has just cut junior doctor pay (on some vague idea of a "7-day NHS" which he had to admit to the Public Accounts Committee he had no idea what it would look like, how much it would cost or where he'd get the money) so the attractions of studying one of the toughest University courses for 6 years and then go through another 15 years before you can have a crack at applying for Consultant training seems much reduced. Especially when by that time you have racked up a £54.000,-- debt --a decent deposit for a house and a car. So where are we going to get more doctors? Why, from abroad, of course.

Your governments have been running the UK into the ground in every conceivable way and find Europe a convenient scapegoat. You just don't know who your enemy is.


* By the way, this analysis of the factors of immigration comes from the 'Flexcit Report', an analysis by one of the very few Vote Leave camps who are actually working on an exit plan. And they think that "cutting immigration" is a highly unrealistic goal.

** Unless UK obesity keeps going up as it does, from 25% of the population to an estimate of 50% by 2030, in which case they all die prematurely and the pension crisis disappears. But not before costing the NHS a shitload of money. 30% of its current budget goes on diabetes II and obesity related conditions.

I won't go into the most drastic cuts made particularly in child mental health and social services and the overwhelming evidence base showing how childhood deprivation and mental distress massively increases the likelihood --we're talking by factors of 15 to 40-- of severe and chronic physical health problems later in life.

 

And since that video has come out, the WTO has said that in a Brexit the UK can't fall back on WTO regulations as these were all negotiated with the UK being part of the EU. The UK would have to renegotiate from scratch new WTO regulations with 161 member states.

 

Today is the day when I'm not really allowed to talk about it any more.

 

Yes you can, but only in a personal capacity and not representing whoever you work for (in the NHS we have the same deal).

 

Can you elaborate?

 

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/eu-referendum-guidance-for-the-civil-service-and-special-advisers

 

Corbyn and Milliband are in my town today, from what I've been hearing they have had a pretty rough ride!! Says a lot when my town has been a Labour stronghold for as long as I've lived here (30+ years).

Can't say I'm not glad to be honest either!

 

The chief executive of the Vote Leave campaign has now actually suggested we should keep free movement for western European countries, but not for eastern Europe. That would keep free movement for hundreds of millions of EU citizens. And it would be difficult to enforce within the Schengen zone; people might just move to western Europe as the stepping stone to Britain.

Along with other campaigners, he has also said the UK should extend free movement to any Commonwealth country that has the Queen as the head of state. This would open up your labour market to hundreds of millions of extra migrants, without controls. Is that really the plan?

They also said that they’d operate a points-based system like Australia. But they ignore the fact that Australia actually has higher per capita immigration than the UK. Leave campaigners are now also telling the Indian and Bangladeshi communities in the UK that leaving the EU will allow the UK to massively increase the amount of immigration from the Indian subcontinent, and also open up a whole new tier of immigration to fill short-term vacancies. Is that leave’s official policy?

Dominic Raab MP has suggested the UK should introduce a visa system for tourists. What damage would that do for tourism in the UK? Britain will have a tourism industry worth over £257 billion by 2025 – just under 10% of UK GDP and supporting almost 3.8 million jobs, which is around 11% of the total UK number.

Ans what about the Jungle in Calais? The Common Travel area?

So many questions... but no answers from Vote Leave.

 

It's their own fault as well.

Labour continues to be in favour of free movement even though the largely unskilled eu migrants that come here affect the poorest the most. This is why they'll continue to leak votes to UKIP or other protest parties for the foreseeable future.

Immigration isn't bad, nor even mass immigration on its own just like anything in life, anything can be bad if it is done improperly.


One of the main reasons labour seem to do this is the infiltration of chattering class, middle income, virtue signalling, morally superior, self righteous, self proclaimed do gooders and identity nuts who either have a guardian column or wish they did into the party since the mid 90s. They have no interest in working class or lower middle class problems and simply want to create a left wing authoritarian politically correct debate-less utopia where everyone who disagrees with immigration/ multiculturalism/ "positive" racial or gender discrimination (delete as appropriate) is outcast as a vile bigot/racist/xenophobe/ "islamophobe"/ misogynist (delete as appropriate).

The lower economic classes who make up their base are only kept because the plutocratic tories who run the conservatives at the moment are worse as they would cut their tax credits, kill the NHS with kindness (keep giving it money while changing the organisation to make sure the NHS always gets more expensive), cut their local services etc.

 

The problem is: Vote Leave doesn't have a plan to do it "properly". It is asking people to jump off a cliff and trust it that it will figure out how to make a parachute on the way down.

 

If you had to bet your house though you'd say we'd treat EU migration much like rest of world migration is now which isn't perfect but better than what the relation with the EU migration is now.
Mainly because that's how it would be as immigration reform would take years so without the free movement exception they'd be treated like anyone else who applies for residence for whatever reason