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E.U: Leave or Stay? Your thoughts.

Discussion in 'Serious' started by TheBlackSwordsMan, 22 Feb 2016.

  1. loftie

    loftie Well-Known Member

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    I wonder if the UK had a major part to play in that though?
     
  2. Nexxo

    Nexxo Bargaining chip

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    That argument is a misrepresentation. The same level of access that the US was offered would be significantly less than the UK enjoys now. What the UK wants is to preserve a level of access that was not offered to the US in the first place.
     
  3. Anfield

    Anfield Well-Known Member

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    Likely it was the UK that had asked for it in the first place to get better access to the US market, but of course there was never any chance of the US submitting to EU or even neutral oversight and enforcement of rules, so it was always destined to be a pipe dream.

    The UK however will be in an entirely different position than the US was, so the EU can offer an agreement (separate from any FTA) for financial services with the caveat of the UK automatically accepting all current and future EU financial regulations plus ECJ jurisdiction in one big take it or leave it package.
     
  4. Corky42

    Corky42 What did walle eat for breakfast?

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    By all accounts their going for equivalence, probably because someone idiot told them it's pretty much the same thing....It's not but seeing as some of our MPs don't even understand why they don't want to be in "a" customs union trying to explain how equivalence works is probably beyond their comprehension and they would probably would baulk at the idea of having to sign a document that would prevent them from making short term political choices.
     
  5. Archtronics

    Archtronics Well-Known Member

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    I think its highly likley we will see a deal on financial services even if theres not a deal on anything else.

    Any way you dress it up London is still way ahead of the likes of Frankfurt and Paris as a financial centre, perhaps this will diminish over time but short term the EU are still going to need that capital inflow and services.
     
  6. Corky42

    Corky42 What did walle eat for breakfast?

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    Not that i know one way or the other, although going on this blog post i read that seems to take fairly well balanced view I'm inclined to agree.

    The only problem is I'm not sure our politicians have the intelligence to make it work without screwing it up along the way.
     
  7. Nexxo

    Nexxo Bargaining chip

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    I think that people underestimate the ability of the EU to emulate the UK in putting political ideal before economic pragmatism.
     
  8. Mankz

    Mankz 5318008

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  9. Corky42

    Corky42 What did walle eat for breakfast?

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    A typical jobs for the boys move, turns out things like that are not exclusive to the UK, although it doesn't bode well for Brexit as that guy's got a reputation for being a bit of a dick (people claim he was the source of the leak on the meeting/dinner May had with Junker) and he's about as europhile as you can get.
     
  10. Nexxo

    Nexxo Bargaining chip

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    For now...
     
  11. Mankz

    Mankz 5318008

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    It will end up staying that way.
     
  12. Archtronics

    Archtronics Well-Known Member

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    Perhaps, all depends on the decisions makers risk profiles.
    To me the current commision look and sound very risk averse hence economic pragmatism will win the day short term, long term I think they will look to slowly nibble away at Londons position.
     
  13. Corky42

    Corky42 What did walle eat for breakfast?

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    Come the zombie apocalypse. :D
     
  14. Anfield

    Anfield Well-Known Member

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    Going for equivalence would be pointless, the reason being Switzerland.

    Allow me to elaborate:
    The agreements Switzerland has with the EU as a total add up to EEA membership in drag.
    So where does equivalence come into it?
    A significant portion of the thousands of small agreements if viewed in isolation are effectively equivalence.
    However that falls apart the moment you look at how they all tie together and realize that they can't be disentangled without it resulting in cherry picking.
    Further if the EU would allow the UK to cherry pick it would make the EU look bad as they have denied Switzerland (and various others) the opportunity to do so.

    How is that any different than what I suggested with an effective EEA membership for the UK financial sector?

    The EU would have a much easier job selling an effective EEA membership for the UK financial sector politically since they can dress up the message as them retaining control over an integral aspect of the financial system. Getting that same message across with the less explicit subservience with a Switzerland style agreement would be damn near impossible.

    What about it from a UK point of view?
    The upside of an effective EEA membership for the UK financial sector would obviously be providing continued access as well as avoiding a cliff edge, sounds too good to be true? The big caveat of course would be that some UK politician would have to commit career suicide by excluding the financial sector from "taking back control".
     
    Last edited: 9 Mar 2018
  15. Corky42

    Corky42 What did walle eat for breakfast?

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    I don't think they'd have to sell anything, i get the sense most people who voted to leave the EU aren't paying attention to what the government is doing, either that or they don't care: We won, we're leaving, get on with it...i don't care about the details or that it's complicated just do it.
     
  16. RedFlames

    RedFlames ...is not a Belgian football team

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    'It's not about the money/economy... it's about *mumbles*...'
     
  17. Anfield

    Anfield Well-Known Member

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    After all the babble about committing to leaving on 29th March 2019 "get on with it" is getting less and less optional with each day, time doesn't play political games:hehe:

    Even if they aren't paying attention / caring now, I assume they will be complaining later down the line if it does go wrong, so if politicians think they can half ass it due to some not paying attention / caring then those politicians will be in for a very rude awakening.
     
  18. Nexxo

    Nexxo Bargaining chip

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    Dunno. Half-assing their way to Brexit seems to be their whole strategy. :blah:
     
    Last edited: 9 Mar 2018
  19. Anfield

    Anfield Well-Known Member

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    Not saying they aren't, just that they won't enjoy the hangover from it come GE time.
     
  20. Nexxo

    Nexxo Bargaining chip

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    I'd like to agree with you, but if the EU referendum proved anything it is that people will vote for anything and anybody. Because people are ignorant and irrational, politicians are all as bad as each other and insanity is all about doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result every time.
     

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