E.U: Leave or Stay? Your thoughts.

Well Aron Banks apparently said the fatal mistake of remain was that they based their campaign on facts, facts, facts, and Leave appealed to the emotions. That seems like a good assessment but it's rather worrying that we're making an important decision that's going to effect peoples lives for the foreseeable future on emotions rather than logic and reason as those sort of decisions rarely turn out well

 

Well, according to the Brexiteers, the UK can be in a state of superposition where it is in and out of the EU at the same time, the Irish border can be hard and soft at the same time and cake can be eaten and had at the same time.

Of course, like all quantum superpositional states, the waveform collapses at the first careful observation.

 

Well, people are sure going to feel it when the UK crashes out without a deal...

 

They can't think things through as they are busy trying to rebrand Apocalypse Brexit (crash out without an orderly withdrawal) as No Deal Brexit (which had previously been mostly understood to mean orderly withdrawal but no deal on future relationship).

Btw, if someone wants to subject themselves to some Class A gobbledygook, the full Belfast speech from May:

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/...r-all-on-northern-ireland-visit-37137879.html

 

People are going to feel it no matter what deal is struck, unfortunately people will probably have the same emotional reaction to that and base yet more decisions on their emotions.

I don't disagree that no deal is being re-branded however IMO that's not what's preventing them from thinking, as mentioned above many leavers based it on emotions, we heard it in the run up to the referendum with proclamations that's all to complex to understand and we're hearing it now when people say they should just get on with it.

Some people have chosen not to think about it as that takes effort and us human are typicaly rather lazy, our brains tend to take the path of least resistance, and as understanding how the EU works and how negotiations work is complex some people are defaulting to emotional decision making.

 

Apologies, the thinly veiled jab at JRM for having gone so far off the rebranding deep end recently that his brain fried completely was probably a bit too well hidden.

(attempts to listen to his recent LBC appearance may cause severe head trauma from banging your head against the wall)


On another note:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...rope-ports-airports-home-office-a8456881.html

 

I tend to ignore JRM as he's like Boris, he plays a character to disguise his lack of understanding and ingrained biases, it only takes ten minuets or so to blow his cover but most people don't bother to fact check what he says as their enthralled by his pleasant demeanor and Victorian gent act.

 

^^^ nail on head.

 

Just heard Mr Raab has threatened the EU with not honoring our outstanding commitments if they fail to agree a trade deal, there goes the hope that a change of Brexit secretary would end the belligerent stupidity.

Do ministers not realise the whole world is watching how the UK is conducting itself during this time of withdrawing from the EU, threatening not to pay my mortgage isn't going to make it more likely that I'll get a loan.

 

They're just setting up the public for presenting a negotiating defeat like a major victory.

The EU offered a CETA-style trade deal back in October 2016; the UK just didn't take it because it wanted more cake. Now the government realises that with their red lines (i.e. the only acceptable conditions for the hard Brexiteers) this is the best deal they are going to get, they make a lot of noise about no-deal and how they will withhold payment if they don't get a deal, so they can at the last moment take the CETA-style FTA and present it like a great negotiating victory.

Of course there will be an economic impact, but they'll just blame the EU for being punitive and inflexible, and use it as more justification for the decision to leave.

 

That is what Raab told the Sunday Gammongraph:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/07/21/dominic-raab-britainwill-refuse-pay-39-billion-divorce-bill

Of course it doesn't work like that in reality as agreeing to pay the outstanding commitments is part of the withdrawal agreement and not part of a future deal.

 

The trade deal is already on the table. Has been since October 2016. The UK just wants more cake because it knows that there will be an adverse economic impact.

 

More Cake has been on the table as well, it is called EEA membership.
That or a Ceta style deal (which the UK moaned about due to no special treatment for Banks)
But of course the UK government wasted two years coming up with Cheguers Fudge which posits that the cake can be eaten, remain on the table and there will be free Fudge.

But just because the EU played nice and blinked by allowing talks about those options doesn't get around the issue that before any such thing gets signed off the withdrawal agreement must be final which includes the bill for outstanding commitments made by the UK while a EU member.

 

And they still don't see how 'Here is how we intend to renege on this deal we've agreed with you', isn't a good look.

 

Ironically they could even make the EU pay the bill...

A throw away line from here: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-44873067

Seize the money and give it to the EU, bill paid, the Brexiters get to cheer that the taxpayer didn't have to pay it and everyone is happy

(no, that suggestion is not exactly serious as cracking down on dark money in London wouldn't fly politically)

 

Seems we now have a timescale for when we'll see the benefits of leaving the EU, or at least according to JRM we do, it's going to be in 50 years.

 

Generally you should always triple the amount of time when you make a prediction.

 

Sounds promising.

And crashing out of the EU on WTO terms is now being rebranded as the "World Trade Deal". Welcome to Brexitland, where no-deal is a deal.

 

No Deal is about the only option left to hard line brexiters now, it's the only way they can avoid having to come up with a plan, the only way they can keep making grandiose promises, and the only way they can maintain the pretense that leaving the EU is a good thing.

 

And the best thing is: when in 50 years their predicted sunny uplands don't materialise, nobody alive today is there to be held to account anymore, or to hold them to account.

No plan, no prospect, no problem.