E.U: Leave or Stay? Your thoughts.

In theory? Yes.
In practice? Probably not, because neither of the two big parties is likely to make a 180 after all their talk of leaving.

 

Raab C. Brexit has apparently said the UK didn't stand up to Brussels bullies, wasn't that his bleedin' job?

And to top it all Nadine Dorries has said Mrs May's deal gives us no voice, no votes, no MEPs, no commissioner....That's what you voted for you daft woman.

 

On a side note, the no deal is fine brigade often talk about just trading on WTO rules. No problems. That'd be dandy.

Am I right in thinking our current WTO rules would become void as most (if not all?) our WTO based deals are done through rules we benefit from as being a member of the EU?

Future WTO rules would put as at a default maximum tariff on all deals as Australia, NZ, US, Russia have all said they don't want us trading as we currently are.

I'm paddling a bit in mud on that one, happy to be educated.

 

The confusion is around membership vs tariff schedules.

The UK is a member of the WTO as part of the EU. Some people feared that leaving the EU would mean it would lose that membership and would have to apply for individual membership, but that is not necessary; the UK also has WTO membership in its own right.

The UK has a WTO tariff schedule as part of the EU also. Now it is leaving, it has to have its own approved. This means it has to split import and export quota with the rest of the EU. Interestingly this has been the least problematic issue in the negotiations, with both sides readily agreeing on an amicable split. Unfortunately other WTO members have already raised objections, ironically the USA, some South American nations and various Commonwealth nations, as well as Russia.

Now this does not mean that the UK can't trade under the WTO, or even that it can't trade under its tariff schedule even while it is being challenged, but it does complicate, and possibly block any FTA negotiations with the disputing nations. Since FTAs are negotiated against the baseline of WTO tariffs, until these are defined and approved, there is no baseline to negotiate against.

 

Thanks, I was sure it wasn't quite as straight forward as is often being bandied about.

I can see why the US, Aus, NZ and others have put in a block. Yeah, we'll give you a FTA, just agree to this, this and this and we'll take our opposition away so it's possible.

That about right?

 

It's not even the tariffs that are so much of a problem, sure they make things more expensive but aren't prices always going up, the real killer would be quotas that basically say you can only sell X widgets to our country per year.

 

It's the non-tariff barriers that derail most trade deals. And the popular one atm is Visas. The UK objected to the EU-India deal because one of the thing India wanted was Visas - in short, they wanted easier access to the EU for its people as well as its stuff.

India would almost certainly insist on the same in any UK-India deal. As iirc, would Australia.

 

Peak Brexit Comedy:

https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1064057826727874565

 

I have a theory that the global rise of Authoritarianism is completely down to Putin. No surprise there, but I've never been sold on the motive of a trained KGB-agent being attributed to dick-waving.
I think the motive is to disrupt traditional trade partnerships, and since alternative trade partners are also being encouraged to adopt protectionism, it sends everyone in to the welcoming arms of Xi Jinping (who just happens to be building a global trade infrastructure).
Governments (our own in particular) don't actually recognise the diminished role of the state in the modern era (as to do so would de-legitimise themselves), and so can't see the real danger in what they're doing.
Post-globalisation, politics has very little sway in the grand scheme of things. I mean, if you want to rule the world in 2018 are you going to form a country, or a company?

 

I agree corps/companies will rule the world in the future.

I disagree about authoritarianism being down to Putin, I think it far more likley because the current economic system hasn't been working for average people for the last 30 years.
People want simple answers and authoritarians give them that.

 

So that May's deal can be extended until 2022 and our next GE is scheduled to happen one month later, coincidence, happenstance, or great planning?

 

What she told the CBI:

So the timing is definitely intentional.

 

It's probably as much of a coincidence as the brexit day being just before a load of EU-wide tax avoidance legislation comes into force.

 

IDK she said that, still one month isn't very long for people to go OMG where are my rainbows and unicorns.

About the only thing we'll be able to judge come election time will be how well the government has prepared logistically, and even that will only be a short-term judgment as stockpiling would easily cover a month or two.

It pretty much looks like she's shifted the blame onto he successor.

You're talking about Brexit 'day' or when the implementation period ends? Because if it's the 'day' wouldn't we still be subject to EU rules for another two'ish years?

 

Her full speech is here:
https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/pm-speech-to-cbi-19-november-2018

But to sum it up it is the same "square is actually round and fits through triangle" as always, so yep... expectations of unicorns won't go away.

 

More a combo of Brexit day being when it is [i.e. just before the rules come into force] and not unsubtle push for no deal/no transition [so the UK isn't subject to them/obliged to implement them].

 

Gibraltar says 'Hi'

 

Speaking of tax avoidance No.3 in this list of five 'supposedly' crackpot conspiracy theories talks about just that, but of course because there's absolutely no credible evidence there's no reason to investigate any of them.

 

"EU law expert, Professor Michael Dougan has read all 585 pages of Theresa May's Brexit deal and offers his assessment of the proposal here"