E.U: Leave or Stay? Your thoughts.

Betting markets have Johnson favourite, Javid then Rabb.

The advantage of Johnson is that Labour can't help themselves going into "LOOK HE'S A TOFF!!!!" campaign mode which worked so well for them again Cameron, of course. He can at least be guaranteed to provided greater clarity than May as he's do one for playing his cards close to his chest. He'd have to go back to the EU, saying, "This is a pile of rubbish, we shouldn't have attempted an in-but-out Brexit at all." And then propose a less implausible simpler deal.


However Javid would be a better leader over the long term. Labvor will try "He's a rich, evil, banker" but it's harder to play the class card when he's a second generation immigrant son of a bus driver and your leader is old, white, beardy and went to a private prep-school.

 

All completely true IMO, apart from Corbyn being for remain, sure he said that's what he supported but i get the feeling that position was more about trying to please everyone all the time, exactly the same as what he's doing now, it maybe the politically correct thing to do but anyone whose been paying attention can see straight through that veil and he comes across as being highly dishonest as a result.

No-one may have been arguing for this but that's what they voted for, what leave actually meant was, perhaps deliberately so, left intentional vague so people could attach their own ideals to it. Without that vagueness leave almost certainly wouldn't have won, if May's deal was presented as what Brexit meant would've leave won? If leaving without a withdrawal agreement was presented as what Brexit meant would it have? If any single viable Brexit had been presented would it have?

 

They're all about listening to the "will of the people" (I fricking hate that phrase!).

The last election resulted in a hung parliament, surely that was message enough to say the electorate wasn't sure on what they specifically wanted and wanted the whole Parliament to deal with this rather than a small minority.

 

So the ERG... having been banging on about a no confidence vote... are now angry that there's a confidence vote...

...wut.

 

1 51/49 or 52/48 is not the will of the people, not even close. 70, 80% win, that would've been the will of the people. This is the bit about brexit that baffles me the most, how can you even begin to argue that such a small margin is "the will of the people?" Only half the people are people? Honestly, this is where brexit should've stopped (or not even started). You're all on a sinking ship. My condolences to the Brits that have their heads screwed on straight having to put up with this gooblesnap.

 

Thanks, it is appreciated.

 

Well I guess the answer is, more so than Remain. What Cameron was trying to do is what centre-right parties always did, neutralise whatever is further right before it turns nasty(ier). He didn't bet on the EU not giving an inch and with Labour sitting on the fence. Perhaps Cameron should have had the vote before he went to negotiate with the EU.

 

Yes, because placating the far right always works out.

Cameron got almost everything he wanted in his February 2016 negotiations with the EU. But the Brexiteers would have rubbished whatever he came back with, just as they would have rubbished whatever May came back with.

And of course the EU will not compromise its fundamental rules for a member state that is leaving. Doesn't take a genius to figure that out. Neither should it come as a surprise that a second-richest trade bloc of 27 nations has more negotiating power than a single middle-size economy. So if Cameron had the EU Referendum before negotiating with the EU it would have changed nothing.

 

I am sick to the back f###ing teeth of hearing about "the will of the people" (or "this is what we voted for", or "we have to honour what people voted for", etc, etc...).

As one of the 48.1% people who didn't even want this waterfall of shite in the first place, I totally agree with this sentiment: do I not count as "people"? Do the other 48.whatever% of people who also didn't want this mess not count as "people"? Who is representing my democratically expressed opinion? In 10/20/30 years' time when the dust settles on this, who are the ones that are going to have to deal with the fallout from it?



(src)

Oh yes, that's right: people around my age or younger. The bickering old farts in politics who have been whinging about Europe and longing for a return of the Empire for decades will be either long since retired or long since dead; those who come into power after the griping, bickering old farts will, generally, be affluent enough to not have to worry about the consequences.

I honestly couldn't care less whether May survives this confidence vote or possible subsequent leadership challenge. It's going to take a monumental amount of willpower and leadership to salvage anything from the slow-motion car crash of Brexit, and frankly no one in either of the major parties has so far demonstrated those qualities. Labour certainly haven't shown a spine in all of this, so they can have my membership card back and shove it where the sun don't shine.

TL;DR: Brexit is a farce, the Tories will continue to royally shaft all but the richest in society, and the current incarnation of the Labour party is a joke as an opposition party. Also, EDIT: Here endeth today's Rant from Byron™

 

Nice to see the suspension of two MPs has been lifted just in time for tonight's vote.

 

This isn't good. Remember they threw someone a knighthood last week.

 

I reckon, and this is backed up by what the rumour mill is grinding out:

May will win the confidence vote, but it'll be conditional on her going in the summer, or before the next election [whichever comes first].

 

If she wins the confidence vote they can't throw her out for another year
If the deal passes the DUP will support Labour, SNP, Greens etc in a general No confidence vote
The tories unable to throw May out will then be forced into a GE with dead duck May still as their leader

but in the unlikely event that they throw her out now they have no time left to box any variant of brexit through parliament.

 

"Theresa May has told Tory MPs she will not lead the Conservative Party into the next general election as she tried to persuade them not to oust her."

So if she looses a no confidence vote she resigns?

 

I know all that... and them blowing their wad early and without a plan is hardly without precedent... but still...

 

Doing the deed and buggering off seems to be a growing trend these days.

Also who do we send our letters to in order to trigger a second vote? It only takes 48 Conservative MPs (15%) to trigger a second vote how many letters would the public need.

 

If she loses, she is removed as leader of the party [and by extension as PM]. The Tories then have a leadership contest to pick her replacement.

IIRC the Deputy PM [Liddington I think it is officially... it might be Hammond] would be acting-PM for the duration.

 

I could have this wrong but couldn't she just say F you, i didn't think a VonC was binding or legally enforceable just like when Corbyn refused to stand down.

I mean it would be extraordinary if she didn't stand down and it would probably trigger a leadership challenge or a VonC in the chamber on the government itself but AFAIK a VonC within a party is little more than advisory, ironic or what.

 

Corbyn could tell the to jog on because that's what the labour party rules say. Though he still faced a leadership challenge.

May would be booted out, because that's what the conservative party rules say.

Each party handles things differently.