E.U: Leave or Stay? Your thoughts.

Some of them aren't even unknown unknowns as politicians are making conscious decisions to ignore them.

The NI border is a problem...No, No it's not....Yes it is....No it's not we're going to solve it with wishful thinking and fairy dust.

 

On a plus side, i've just seen the Italian Parliament on tv - it makes the UK one look positively serene.

#barrelscraping

 

Well, that's awkward:

 

Not so much awkard but infuriating beyond belief.

 

Well...



We shall see...

 

Here's hoping.

And here's hoping if there is people will vote based on facts rather than what's in the mystery box.

 

Meanwhile HMG still won't tell anyone what they promised Nissan.

Translation, 'too confidential to publish' = 'too embarrassing to publish' and/or 'if the public/our own backbenchers knew... we'd be toast'.

 

Brexit aside I have a qs, is it possible not to live in some kind of hierarchy?

 

I'd be more worried about the 150 odd investment treaties that we're signed up to, even if Mrs May's deal gets through parliament we're still opening ourselves up to being sued by foreign companies who've invested in the UK, doubly so if we leave without a withdrawal agreement.

One half of the government is going to be tied up with trying to re-negotiate the 150 treaties we're already a part of while the other half will be trying to win court battles with companies who've seen the value of their investment all but wiped out.

 

"British curry industry ‘dying’ because of Brexit and staff shortages, leading restaurateurs warn", i suppose 'adequate' doesn't cover curry

 

I wonder if Leave supports have considered that it's inevitable that we'll rejoin the EU at some point in the future only on far worse terms than we currently have, like adopting the single currency, being part of schengen, not having a rebate, not being able to opt-out of closer political union, etc, etc.

It's inevitable isn't it? Support for leaving is already waning, it's probably going to impact peoples lives in a negative manner, and there's a complete lack of reasoned discourse from people who supported leaving.

It's not like after women fought for the vote, slavery was made illegal, or basic human rights became a thing that people just said "right job done" and moved on, and yet it seems Brexit supports have so isn't rejoining on worse terms inevitable?

 

I’m not so sure, depends how you see Europe panning out in the future which could change Peoples perspectives.

 

^As above, it depends and on what the EU will look like in the future.

Over chats in Austria there's not much faith in it remaining, well not as it is in its current form, not with the problems in numerous countries and ones seemingly just taking and not contributing. Then again, this is just people talking.

Mind you I still hope we can stay and help shape its future.

 

It's pretty much a given that it will continue to change in the same manner as it's done for the last 40+ years, it serves its members and they're the ones who get to shape what it should or shouldn't do, it's also not going to go anywhere, that's just wishful thinking from people who don't understand what the EU is and don't like the idea of small countries acting in unison to amplify their sovereign powers.

No matter what shape a future EU takes though I pretty much guarantee that if we do leave there's going to be calls to rejoin and support for that will only grow as time passes, I'm not sure people fully comprehend how insignificant the UK is on the global stage, even more so with the damage the referendum has done to our reputation.

Even if we're being generous and say it will only take a year to replace each international treaty that we're currently party to we're still talking about 150+ years before our bespoke deal with the rest of the world is done.

 

The problem the EU will have is if those nations start diverging from the 'unison' in their attitudes and behaviours.

The things some countries are finding 'acceptable' is starting to be very worrying, just look at Hungary, Czechia and so on.

Like I say, i'd rather be in it and try and nip it in the bud than deal with the potential aftereffects from the outside.

 

None of the countries that are showing worrying right-wing tendencies want to leave the EU. Some mutter about it a bit, but when those right-wing parties are asked outright, they declare no plans to leave. Especially the A8, which are net recipients of EU money and have good ol' Russia breathing down their necks eager to welcome them back into the fold.

So the EU will continue to bicker internally, but also continue to show a united front to the rest of the world. Which will now also include the UK. And the UK is about to get an object lesson in humility.

 

The EU's future will boil down to how the single currency/economic issues are resolved, getting rid of individual sovereign states and federalising is probably the best way forward but unlikely.

 

Best thing for the EU to be is a facilitator for trade and travel, not trying to overtly impose governance. The single currency is and will always be a terrible idea, it hands the largest economies (Germany and France) a permanent advantage in trade, but at the same time leaves them vulnerable to the mis-steps and debts of the weaker economies that can't compete and so have to increase borrowing to operate (Greece, Spain, Estonia etc).

Germany has done very well out of the Euro, although they don't always feel that way about it. Greece in particular has done very badly out of it, having been encouraged into massive spending and borrowing off the back of 'their' strong currency, then having no means to de-value or re-negotiate when the bottom fell out, effectively losing control of fiscal policy in the process.

You would think look at the US and China's problems with single a single currency and government covering vastly differing economic areas would put anyone off (Russia doesn't count, Russia is weird), but everyone thinks they're going to be California or New Jersey, when they're more likely to end up being West Virginia.

As much as I am very much pro remain, going for a United States of Europe is too far the other way.