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News Hard disk supply could take two years to recover

Discussion in 'Article Discussion' started by arcticstoat, 7 Nov 2011.

  1. thehippoz

    thehippoz New Member

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    oh well gonna have to bite the bullet and get one.. wonder if I can get a used hd xD or one of those refurbished ones with all the midget pic stash on them when you run the recovery
     
  2. zulu9812

    zulu9812 New Member

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    I think that the flooding in Thailand is something of a distraction. i was under the impression that Thailand accounts for about a third of global hard drive manufacturing - but 40% comes from China. In fact, when one source of manufacturing undergoes a slowdown, market forces would normally dictate that a competitor with excess manufacturing capacity or the ability to expand capacity - like China - would take advantage and grab an increased market share. I wonder why this hasn't happened? I wouldn't put it past the Chinese government to throttle exports, specifically to drive up prices.
     
  3. MrWillyWonka

    MrWillyWonka Chocolate computers galore!

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    Thankfully I upgraded my drives to 2 x 2TB just days before the price increases which saved me £220. I know some will be unlucky but it may well encourage people to sort out their hard drives and delete what they never use.
     
  4. The_Beast

    The_Beast I like wood ಠ_ಠ

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    Hopefully DVD/optical media will stay cheap. I might just have to plug in my DVD drive again :lol: it's been at least 7 months since I've used it
     
  5. sitech71

    sitech71 New Member

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  6. faugusztin

    faugusztin I *am* the guy with two left hands

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    Considering hard drive production of 180m per quarter the drop of 40m motors is pretty significant. On other side, it pretty much matches the drop in production of WDC hard drives (30m) plus Seagate hard drives (5-10m) in this quarter.

    This would imply that there is any excess manufacturing capacity - but there is only very limited excess manufacturing capacity. And as i wrote few times before - "expanding capacity" is not a overnight thing, not even few weeks thing, more like months/years thing.
     
  7. brooksy

    brooksy New Member

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    Ha Ha I just replaced the two1tb drives in my Nas with two 2tb ones. So I have four 1tb samsung hard drives, 4tb in my nas and three SSDs.
     
  8. driftingphil

    driftingphil New Member

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    Can everyone tell me what there using this amount of storage for?

    Is it the difference between a porn collection, and a porn collection! Lol

    I only run 1 120gb SSD does me fine.
     
  9. Krikkit

    Krikkit All glory to the hypnotoad! Super Moderator

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    I have a pretty enormous collection of ripped DVD's/TV etc, 100GB reserved for music, about 500GB of installed games etc, it all adds up fairly quickly. I couldn't use a one-for-everything computer without at least a couple of TB of space now really.
     
  10. Another_level

    Another_level New Member

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    This is not true. :nono:

    Seagate have always stated that they have the ability to increase capacity to 60 million units in Q4 2011 and 70 million units in Q1 2012 provided that there are no restraints on external component supplies. I think we will know more about the extent of the supply chains issues by December.
     
  11. SpAceman

    SpAceman New Member

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    I asked my local retailer if they had any info on when to expect prices to come back down. They told me their magic 8 ball said they should be fine before the end of 2012, this was via their Facebook page. Somehow the response isn't reassuring.
     
  12. PlayedStation

    PlayedStation Possessed like an apostrophe

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    Yeah i guess with all the death, disease and destruction of homes as a result of the flooding, we should all be upset at spending extra cash on a HD.
     
  13. faugusztin

    faugusztin I *am* the guy with two left hands

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    And Seagate also stated that they have to decrease the production due exactly those constraints to 40m from 50m. :wallbash:.

    And even if they would not have those constraints, those 10-20m hard drives will sure save us when we have 70 million hard drives missing.

    PS: Original Q4 Seagate production estimate was 58m. 60m is so damn far from that number, right ?
     
  14. Another_level

    Another_level New Member

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    Not quite true faugusztin :nono:, Seagate said that with the current constraints on external components supply then shipment would be between 41 to 45 million units.

    These figures are no longer relevant.

    Seagate and Western Digital gave worldwide estimates for demand for HDDs at 170m & 180m units respectively. But these estimates were based on old prices and with the new prices we are seeing for HDDs then the demand for them would decrease as most people would wait for the prices to come down or switch to better technologies such as SSDs. Also not forgetting thst the western world's economy is broadly flat and in turn reduce demand for HDDs.

    Only the desparate or the foolish, perhaps both, would be happy to pay the current hard drives prices.
     
    Last edited: 8 Nov 2011
  15. faugusztin

    faugusztin I *am* the guy with two left hands

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    And again. You mix end user market (you & me) with majority of market. Apple, Dell, HP, Lenovo and others have fixed prices until the end of the year, if not for longer. And they take large majority of those hard drives, probably even more than there will be made in Q4. And those guys are not paying €200 for 2TB drive, but they still pay the 60€ price - because they have an agreement which says they have to sell it at that price. And i am sorry if you cannot understand that, but right now the hard drive manufacturers are mainly interested in guys who take millions of hard drives per month, not in the guys who take maybe 1-4 hard drives per year. Because me and you will say "oh well" and don't buy a hard drive, but if WDC/Seagate doesn't deliver then they will have to pay for not delivering according to the contract.

    So sorry if you think that if you think hard drive manufacturers should try to handle situation better for me & you (very little part of the market) rather than fulfilling their agreements with the guys who are the majority of the market.

    The majority of the market still has the old prices, maybe with a little increase. The reason why do you see high prices in retail market is because the manufacturers cannot supply the retail market as all their hard drives go to their main market - computer manufacturers.

    Just think about it - computer sales in Q3/20112 were 91.8m according to Gartner. And that is of course the wordwide brand name guys, those numbers are not counting small local computer manufacturers. That means just the big guys eat up 50-54% of the originally predicted Q4 production of hard drives. And 83% of current prediction of Q4 hard drive production (110 millions of hard drives). So you, me and small computer manufacturers have the remaining 17% share (20 million hard drives) for our disposal. And you can bet twice who will buy up those 20 million hard drives plus the current stock for their needs. Not you and not me, but the smaller computer manufactures.

    And any sane person now understands why the prices are at the current price level. But i don't expect you to understand that. For you there is nothing more than greedy shops & distributors. Because they are so damn greedy that instead of 80 million hard drives they will get only the quarter of supply (worldwide). And even from that supply, you can bet twice which market will get the majority. I give you a hint - it is not Asian, not Australian, not South American, not African and not European.
     
  16. yassarikhan786

    yassarikhan786 Ultramodder(Not)

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    I got a WD Caviar black 2TB for £104. A 1TB black drive is over £100 now!!!!
     
  17. Another_level

    Another_level New Member

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    Sorry if I don't treat your words as facts considering in previous posts you've given incorrect figures and change the goalpost whenever the argument doesn't suits you.

    There are plenty of nutters in the business world and for this reason alone I like to make my own judgements as a consumer rather than relying on a dishonest person on a forum. :D

    Fortunately, I'm heartened by people on this forum who recognises that big businesses can be idiots at times.
     
  18. Guinevere

    Guinevere Mega Mom

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    No I think they'd say...

    "We're selling less drives than in 2010, but that's the price and market for you, and as we only make a few quid on each one it's not hurting us too much and we're still selling drives to small companies who have no choice as their regular supplier is out of stock and their email server went down on Sunday - Lolz!. And look at the budget SSDs we're selling in their place, and tablets is where the money is at these days anyway."

    Believing an internet boycott of a few UK suppliers and one small product range can make a difference to the price the manufacturers charge said suppliers is fine bit of youthful idealism. You keep that glass half full thinking cap on - but be prepared to have it knocked off and stamped on by the cold hard boot of international trade.

    Then again.... maybe it would get Scan worried...

    Scan: Dear Mr Samsung, we're not selling any spin-points, the interweb says the price is too high. Can we have them at 2010 prices please?

    Mr Samsung: No.

    Scan: Sorry?

    Mr Samsung: I said no

    Scan: Please...

    Mr Samsung: No

    Scan: We'll order a double month supply.. say 1000 units?

    Mr Samsung: (Mutters) We sell that many to Google every two seconds...

    Scan: And we'll stop stocking Samsung if you don't lower the price...

    Mr Samsung: That's okay.

    Scan: What?

    Mr Samsung: That's your choice, we'd rather you didn't but we're okay with your choice, the prices will come back down again when we get production back up again.

    Scan: You don't care?

    Mr Samsung: We like you as a customer, you're small and cute and have those funny English accents like on Benny Hill and Faulty Towers. But your sales equate to 0.00000000000001% of our global income and 0.00000000000000000000001% of our global profit, plus my brother and his son drowned in the floods and his widow is working eighteen hours days and as her village is still underwater she's living in a tent...

    Scan (Feeling very small): Oh feck.
     
    Last edited: 8 Nov 2011
  19. Another_level

    Another_level New Member

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    What a stupid analogy.

    None of the Samsung's hard drives manufacturing plants have been flooded.
     
  20. sitech71

    sitech71 New Member

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    Thank you "another_level"
    If the people of the libya had the attitude of Guinevere then where would they be.
    Well they would be bowing down to their master.
    Like I said sheep follow....
    Wake up an be counted.. What are you a robot?"I will obey"
     
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