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Just a matter of time... ?

Discussion in 'Serious' started by AndyDEL, 7 Sep 2009.

  1. AndyDEL

    AndyDEL What's a Dremel?

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    I see the FTSE is rising close to the 5000 mark once again..

    I have to say i’m slightly concerned about things once again.. There has seemed to be this quiet and abrupt bit of growth again, which now people are reflecting on saying we are dragging ourselves out of the recession. What was once being reported as a deep, hard recession with recovery so far off it seemed impossible, to the opposite.

    My main concerns are that petrol / diesel is rising, upto around 106-107p where i live.. So naturally electricity / gas are going to either go up or stagnate where it is aswell.

    With the growth happening, how long is it until we start going near 130-140p again for diesel / petrol and everyone is struggling to pay their commuting costs, or goods going up in price due to increase shipping costs. I firmly believe that the last time it hit those heights it played a huge part in the global downturn. I mean i know how hard it hit me financially, 30-40 miles to work in the car. Diesel costs alone per month were astronomical.

    It’s not so much going to affect me, as now i live 1-2 miles from work.. Business i work for is busy and has seen growth in sales / projects. Also with a parent company who was posting growth and continuing to expand throughout the recession, but I’m concerned for allot of my friends.

    They seem to be riding high with enthusiasm, either thinking that their jobs (that were previously in jeopardy) are now going to be safe.. Or the unemployed think it’s a matter of time until the job market sees rejuvenation.

    I feel like this new found optimism is going to lead to second big dip in the FTSE, with a whole new round of companies previously hanging on being hit far too early on with rising running costs. Before they have opportunity to recover somewhat from what has been a terrible year.

    I’m also beginning to question whether we can even reach stability again. Although i never experienced the last recession in the same way i have now, i can’t help but think this wasn’t just a global financial crisis.. That so many different factors contributed to it.. And that with the obvious problems we have with food supply, oil supply and other essentials.. That we have as a people, created a way of living and surviving that will eventually lead to a unsustainable and almost cataclysmic breakdown of society.

    It may sound a pessimistic and farfetched, and many may think it is far off that kind of reality.. But i’m inclined to think that within the next 5-10 years we’ll be in the thick of it.

    Anyone got any opinions..

    Am i wrong.. Should we all be cracking out the bubbly?
     
  2. C-Sniper

    C-Sniper Stop Trolling this space Ądmins!

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    While I think the fuel costs had an impact on the recession i don't think it is as much as you say. Here in the states you can/could get a mortgage for 120% of you home's value. And during the "boom" years people took advantage of an Adjustable rate mortgage and when the rates started going up they were screwed. Not only that but a VERY good indicator of the market and the future of the market is the housing market. I remember talking to my father about this right before everything collapsed, and how I had a bad feeling of what the market was about to do because the housing market had stalled out yet the Global markets were taking off. Normally when this occurs something really-bad is about to happen.

    As for what you are saying about fuel, I think that high fuel prices are necessary to drive innovation within the field of alternate-energy sources since there is more public outcry for them. While it may mean living for a few years at 200p/gal or oil at $175/barrel or higher, I think that it will eventually stop affecting us as much because the governments will be forced to do something at the risk of seeing riots.

    Overall, I don't think you are being too pessimistic with your thoughts because it can still all happen. As they say, money makes the world go around and man is a greedy animal. People at the top don't think of what lining their pockets will do to the people down below.
     
  3. julianmartin

    julianmartin resident cyborg.

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    Yeah fuel costs had sweet FA to do with it in comparative terms with the poisonous debts that were being passed around.

    Relaxed control of banks in America (mostly initiated by Clinton), credit being given too easily, and credit being taken without consideration of just how much was being borrowed. Those are pretty much the three biggest, and in general terms, only factors in this.

    C-Sniper makes a very good point. High fuel prices mean more people will bother researching the stuff that needs to be researched at the moment. It may hurt us for a while - but it's pretty much the only way.

    As soon as people stop buying oil products...the price will fall. Don't you worry about that one.
     
  4. Flibblebot

    Flibblebot Smile with me

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    We've just had another tax rise on fuel in the UK, which is probably the main reason why they've suddenly spiked. I don't think we're out of the woods yet, but most estimates said that the recession would last until mid-2010, and it looks as though we're on target to reach that goal.

    It's not going to be an across-the-board recovery - there will always be sectors that take longer to recover than others. Last time around, it was manufacturing. This time around, who knows?

    Such pessimistic thinking can also have an effect on the economy - in the late 90's, the US kept talking itself into recession so often that it eventually became a self-fulfilling prophecy, despite the fact that the rest of the world was in a period of unprecedented growth.

    And don't be in any doubt about the cause of this recession: the global banking industry, which thought it was much cleverer than it actually was, and got itself into deep, deep trouble. The only kind of trouble that can be solved by governments pumping vast amounts of money into the economy.

    The trouble with this is that it will be government services that suffer, not the banking industry. Civil service departments and quangoes will be cut to the bone for the next few years. If you're a civil servant now, I'd start to get worried about your job prospects: no matter who wins the next election, cuts will have to happen if the government is to recoup the money it's spent bailing out the financial sector.
     

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