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LOL *NSFW* *The new Demote thread*

Discussion in 'General' started by adam_bagpuss, 8 Jul 2011.

  1. RedFlames

    RedFlames ...is not a Belgian football team

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    End of this week according to some rumour millings
     
  2. David

    David μoʍ ɼouმ qᴉq λon ƨbԍuq ϝʁλᴉuმ ϝo ʁԍɑq ϝμᴉƨ

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    Anthropic have claimed a revenue increase for $700m a month to $4bn a month since the beginning of the year. I'm sure they'll open up their books to prove this point any day now.
     
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  3. Byron C

    Byron C AKA “Sticky Equilibrium” on weekends

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    Sure, that’ll probably happen around the same time I start believing that annualised revenue is in any way indicative of actual revenue instead of just being a snapshot at any given point in time. So… never.
     
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  4. IanW

    IanW Grumpy Old Git

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    He'll do one of two things:-

    1) Have his digital waifu hallucinate a better-looking set of books beforehand, or
    B) Run crying to Dear Leader that Wall Street is being mean to him
     
    Last edited: 21 May 2026
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  5. Gareth Halfacree

    Gareth Halfacree WIIGII! Lover of bit-tech Administrator Super Moderator Moderator

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    D'you know how people (and by "people" I mean "AI bros" and "gullible marks") tell you that LLMs are absolutely fantastic for rapidly analysing datasets? Like, you just ask it questions and you get your answer back in seconds!

    "I asked Copilot to look at differences in how people in US and UK expressed emotions in an Excel dataset that contained thousands of survey responses," Adam Kucharski writes. That's exactly the kind of thing Microsoft says you should use it for! (When it's not hiding behind a "for entertainment purposes only" disclaimer in flyspeck-four.) "What did it find? According to Copilot: 'Based on the dataset you shared, US and UK responses differ mainly in tone, intensity, and wording style, even though they express similar emotional states.' At first glance, this looks like a remarkably deep insight into text responses from two different countries.

    "There was just one catch: the dataset wasn’t real. It was simulated. First, I’d created 2000 free-text responses and labelled them ‘UK’. Then I copied and pasted the exact same 2000 responses but labelled these ‘US’. Finally, I combined them to create a dataset of 4000 total responses, and jumbled them up. Despite the responses being identical for the UK and US, Copilot produced a rich, detailed summary of how US and UK respondents differed."

    He did it again, this time with 200 statements about career aspirations duplicated across five countries. Again, Copilot was happy to explain how these identical responses were clearly different - and even did a "quantified deep dive" with percentages and everything!

    And it was all bullhoey.

    Adam's write-up is here, and just in case you thought he was maybe prompting it wrong(!) a friend of mine replicated the results.

    The Future!
     
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  6. RedFlames

    RedFlames ...is not a Belgian football team

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    What are your strengths?

    I make quick decisions

    ...and your weakness?

    I make bad decisions
     
    Pete J, pete*, BeauchN and 1 other person like this.
  7. Mr_Mistoffelees

    Mr_Mistoffelees The Bit-Tech Cat. New Improved Version.

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    Gareth Halfacree, is it still your firm belief, that the AI industry is heading for a bubble burst? There seems to be plenty of reasons to assume it is.
     
  8. Byron C

    Byron C AKA “Sticky Equilibrium” on weekends

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    It’s funny, this claim is made quite a lot, often alongside other claims about how we won’t need data/database people gatekeeping access to insights any more. And yet here we are, multiple years into the “AI revolution”… and I still have a job.

    The irony is that it’s actually more effort for me to prompt an LLM than it is to write a SQL query.

    Natural language prompt: “I need to analyse data in My_Table, I need to know the average value of Column_A where the date in ColumnC is on or after the 1st of January this year”.
    SQL query: “SELECT AVERAGE(COLUMN_A) FROM MY_TABLE WHERE COLUMN_B >= ‘2026-01-01’;”

    I could do it even quicker in DuckDB if I could remember its weird syntax shortcuts off the top of my head. But SQL isn’t particularly complicated, and it’s been around long enough to make it trivial to pick up.

    OK OK OK, fine, a mathematical mean is a bit of a noddy example, compared to sentiment analysis of natural language.

    But guess what: that’s not terribly complicated either.

    Give me a couple of hours to refresh my memory - it’s been a while since I did any of this stuff - and I can spin up a Python program to do this on far far larger datasets. You can run it locally, it executes in seconds, it uses free and open source software, it doesn’t need vast rooms stuffed full of billion-dollar computers, in fact it doesn’t even need a GPU at all, it doesn’t need you to plug directly into the power output of your friendly local nuclear power station, and it won’t cost you a single penny.

    Maybe you’d get quicker results if you pay money to SatNad in order to use his slop factory to generate meaningless slop that’s devoid of meaning or value.

    Or you could pay experts to have them share their expertise with you.
     
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  9. Gareth Halfacree

    Gareth Halfacree WIIGII! Lover of bit-tech Administrator Super Moderator Moderator

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    Absolutely 100% yes. The valuations are ridiculous, they're talking about making Pedo Guy the world's first trillionaire and it ain't because he's crashing thousands of satellites into the atmosphere every year.

    I lived through the dot-com bubble. This feels exactly the same (everything must be on the web/AI, startups doing X but online/AI, no venture capital for anything except the web/AI, and weird circular financing that is absolutely dodgy), except the numbers are way, way bigger so it's going to really chuffin' hurt when it pops.

    And, sadly, just because the bubble bursts doesn't mean the tech will go away. It'll still get used for minimum-effort I-don't-care-about-quality crap, but nobody'll be making a new eleventy-billion-parameter model every six months. And you don't have to worry about all the excess data centre capacity, 'cos my prediction is it'll pop before any of 'em are built.
     
  10. Zoon

    Zoon Hunting Wabbits since the 80s

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    I tend to write in 'techgrish' i.e. "gimme sql select avg col_a from m_table where column_b after 1st jan 2026" and let the AI do the job of putting the syntax and format around it. But, to your actual point, it's basically a waste of time when you know the syntax anyway.
    Yup, this. In my first job one of my first projects was prepping updates for Y2K :grin: I remember the crazy valuations and the memes about shares being printed on rolls of toilet paper, because TP was worth more :grin:
     
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  11. RedFlames

    RedFlames ...is not a Belgian football team

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    my gut feeling is when it goes it'll be dotcom implosion meets the 2008 financial crash... the only question becomes - When and/or who is the Freddie Mac/Northern Rock and is first to implode [probably OpenAI but who knows].
     
  12. David

    David μoʍ ɼouმ qᴉq λon ƨbԍuq ϝʁλᴉuმ ϝo ʁԍɑq ϝμᴉƨ

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    Yeah, and every investment firm is throwing in with the AI groundswell, including ones handling pensions. So, when it does pop, we all get another bite of the **** sandwich.
     
  13. Gareth Halfacree

    Gareth Halfacree WIIGII! Lover of bit-tech Administrator Super Moderator Moderator

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    Yuuuuup. Like I say, it's going to hurt.
     
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  14. Zoon

    Zoon Hunting Wabbits since the 80s

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    Thankfully my pension is all in SIPP and a few weeks back I put most of it in non-tech funds to insulate myself from it. It’ll still be affected some but ought to be a bit safer.
     
  15. Pete J

    Pete J Employed scum

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    One thing that saddens me about all this AI boll@cks is how reasonable people seem to either not be aware of or just outright put their heads in the sand about Sam Altman being a misleading sociopath.

    I was speaking to a relative yesterday about it all (all I'll say is that he's involved in AI but not from a technical perspective) and I was trying to convince to him that Sam Altman is showing EXACTLY the same behaviour as Elizabeth Holmes did before the collapse of Theranos. He believes "it's not the same".
     
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  16. David

    David μoʍ ɼouმ qᴉq λon ƨbԍuq ϝʁλᴉuმ ϝo ʁԍɑq ϝμᴉƨ

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    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    150 years later and only the brand name changes
     
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  17. fix-the-spade

    fix-the-spade Multimodder

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    For the benefit of the record. I did check on the status of the pilots before posting it.
     
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  18. Byron C

    Byron C AKA “Sticky Equilibrium” on weekends

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    Not intended as any kind of oblique criticism :happy:. More that I was glad to see the safety systems performing flawlessly despite what looked to be a relatively low altitude.

    It was only after I’d been gliding several times (I was in the air cadets) I learned that the parachutes we used were basically just theatre. If we’d actually had to bail out for any reason, we wouldn’t have had enough altitude for the parachute to open.

    They were fine for an aero-tow launch, but that basically never happened. We always had a winch launch, and you didn’t get much more than about 1500 feet at most (IIRC).

    Mind you, I also learned at the same time that the safety record of those gliders was absolutely impeccable, and even the suspicion that something didn’t look right was enough to ground an aircraft.
     
  19. RedFlames

    RedFlames ...is not a Belgian football team

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  20. Mr_Mistoffelees

    Mr_Mistoffelees The Bit-Tech Cat. New Improved Version.

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