Electric might not make gridlock go away, but a sufficient majority of self-driving cars could. If all the cars talk to each other and use the existing road space much much more efficiently then you could have the same number of cars (or even more) on the same roads with none of the traffic issues. Imagine a smooth flow of closely bunched vehicles, all acting in collectively the most efficient way possible to get where they need to go. Compare that with the relative inefficient chaos we have today. Capacity would massively increase without building any more roads. In fact huge multi-lane roads could become superfluous. ---------------------------------- I actually think the main thing that will drive electric car sales over the next 2 decades or so is price. Electrical engineering has been show repeatedly over the years to reduce in price (and thereby increase in performance) at a much more rapid rate than mechanical. An electric car is inherently much simpler than it's internal combustion engined counterpart. I have a feeling many of the qualms about going electric will dissipate if they're half the price for similar performance and by 2040 it could be something of a non-issue.
the ban does not cover plug in hybrids at least So that will be the norm for most people. keeps the OPEC nations happy as we sill will be using Fossil fuels, Nowhere near as big of an increase in Power requirements, still some but by 2040 i reckon we will be using a lot of wind and hydro power and solar probably too. because as its been said overhauling the entire network of stations to be electric is not going to be cheap or easy, the likelyhood of NCP to willingly pay out to put charging facilities in all of their car parks is bugger all, currently 2 NCP's in the entirely to Manchester have electric charging points and last time I went to look for one with my dad who has an A3 hybrid it was not working and there was 1 bay. I Am sure technology surrounding battery storage and such will be much better in the next 10 years let alone 23 years. So I think its about time something like this was announced. But I am glad to see on the statement hybrids will still exist as charging is not instant nor will it be for a long time.
If you can spend £35k on a car and wait X amounts of months for it to be built. What about the student who has to drive to and from uni every day? Or the single mother who has to take the kids to school? There's going to be an interesting curve in the lead up to this as demand for electric cars go up... As the cryto-currency craze showed us with GPU's, demand = rising prices. And what does this mean for the entire transport and haulage industry?! Yay, no pollution... But all the shops are empty of food, clothes and medicine.
The fastest rapid chargers can do is a full charge in three to four hours. So that bumps my drive from the top of Yorkshire to Tunbridge Wells to see my grandparents from six hours to nine or ten each way. That's before you factor in battery degredation, which rapid chargers accelerate, after two years how many more stops am I going to have to make? Even if charging takes 30 minutes, how are we going to organise that? Have a charging station at every single parking spot in the services? If there isn't I'll be waiting hours for my thirty minute charge anyway. No thanks, it's hard enough going to see them as it is. I think all electric will never gain much traction outside of cities and we'll be driving petrol hybrids to actually use cars for real transport. When a standard fuel pump can fill a 50L fuel tank in ninety seconds, that's how fast recharging the electric car should be.
I think it would be fairer to say that electric cars within the reasonable bounds of their current limitations will never have much traction with people who drive 3-400 miles plus on a fairly regular basis. I think that probably excludes most people who live in rural areas too.
Interesting side effect, major roads will become quieter, volume wise I mean. Personally though I feel while its a good move its a bit early to throw this bill in. Current vehicles and more importantly infrastructure are poor, Yes I could pick up a hybrid/pure electric an drive it to work or to the shops but say you go shopping and want to charge your car, in Milton Keynes they have between 1-4 in a car park if your lucky, of which you'll be lucky to charge your car because they either don't work, have been damaged or simply don't fit your car.
As far as I remember it was somewhere as high as 5 or 6 Hinkleys to cover all electric vehicles if the switch was immediate. Both the French and UK governments pledges are reliant on the basis that battery technology and motor efficiency will have improved enough over the next 20 years for this to be possible. Whilst there have been some developments into alternative battery types such as aluminium ion, there's still a long way to go. If the other recent idea of batteries for homes takes off it will aid with the development people are willing to put in to the technology side.
Or, better yet, electrify the roads. The amount they spend digging them up every year around here anyways, and with wireless charging being a thing now, just make it one big Scalextric track. No need to produce millions of batteries, no need to install charging points everywhere, no need for users to pay out on their electric bills each month, no range issues. Done. Make me president.
Tesla supercharger, 80% charge in 40 minutes, approx 248 miles of range. I think you're making a largely unfair comparison, considering that the majority of car journeys are short and the occasional road trip will incur only a minor stop.
Hahahaha. Is this going to go along with the unicorn's they're promising elsewhere? The battery tech MIGHT get good enough by then, but there's no way it'll be cheap enough. I just drove ~1600 miles across Europe, and I'd still be out there if I had to wait 45 minutes every ~300 miles. I don't see this as something that'll happen as it's being reported now. Not unless the Government are going to buy me a Tesla in twenty years. Consistent use of Superchargers will lock you out of it eventually. IIRC, the guy used his Tesla on regular long trips and superchargers primarily as a means of charging, he started losing capacity and eventually the car refused to charge using a super charger. Something else to combat for people who drive a lot.
Without electric haulage, industrial vehicles and/or electric buses/public transport [and indeed aircraft], it all seems a bit pointless imo. As for congestion... Congestion will continue to be a thing whilst working patterns remain as they are... As long as a large number people need to be in roughly the same place at roughly the same time, you'll get congestion.
A majority of car journeys are short because a majority are either unplanned, or fairly short notice. Barring my daily commute, the rest of my trips are for things like discovering I need to run to Tesco to get something for dinner, or pick up/drop off a parcel at the post office, or run out to the out of hours pharmacy... The fossil fuel in my car means it's ready to go EXACTLY when I need it - If I got to work and my electric car needed to go on charge that isn't a problem, if I got to work and my wife calls me screaming that she's broke her leg or the oven has exploded and my electric car needs half an hour hooked up to the charging station to get me back, that's a problem. I'm telling ya, electrify the roads. Even if it's just the motorways, that means the 10 miles I do on the M11 every morning and afternoon will keep me topped up enough to cover those kind of emergencies/inconveniences.
The problem with electrifying roads is that wireless charging is inefficient. Scale that up to the sort of energy use we're talking about here and the level of waste would be colossal. A possibility I suppose would be some sort of charging lane on certain sections of road for optional use when required. That would also have the advantage of being a bit like F-Zero
She won't be able to get hold of you, as the battery in your phone will probably be dead. Or have plenty of charge in it?
In more or less the same time span we went from paper airplanes to jet propulsion last century. What I'm trying to say is it probably impossible to predict what will in the future as far as technology goes. So nay saying on the basis of today's tech is a none starter. I really see transportation going towards the subscription model with self driving pods. Could easily tie it in with entertainment e.g: having the latest block buster to watch in your transport pod on long journeys. You can bet that the petroleum corporations are going to be pumping billions into alternative energy over the coming decades with the prospect of their monopoly dwindling out.
And it may well happen before 2040, Uber is investing in self driving cars and eliminating the cost of a driver should bring the price of using it low enough to completely eliminate any reason to own a car for any reason other than vanity.
Tesla already have range approaching that, and Toyota have announced they have a "solid-state" battery on the way that can charge in 5 minutes.
