Fair play, but not everyone can afford to wait ten years to see if this type of policy will pay off. Most small businesses are more centred around trying to see out the global financial crisis at the moment. Gates is speculating that there will eventually be a return on a market that his company has no control over. He isn't basing this speculation on anything other than a gut feeling. Hardly conclusive evidence in favour of piracy. I would bet my bottom dollar that if they were offered the choice of being able to completely eradicate the ability to use pirate OS'es, or just hope that one day they will get a return, then I could guess which he would choose. He knows that his (ex)company carries no weight in China, so he's out on a wing and a prayer. So you keep suggesting, but you do not have any conclusive evidence that this is in fact true.