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Windows Star Citizen

Discussion in 'Gaming' started by Parge, 10 Oct 2012.

  1. N17 dizzi

    N17 dizzi Multimodder

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    Roberts actually dedicates a paragraph near the bottom to say the opposite, saying to old backers - "stop giving us your money" in the context of there being any concerns about product viability etc.

    They have made a flipping fortune this year. They are swimming in cash like scrooge mcduck.
     
  2. bawjaws

    bawjaws Multimodder

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    I have to be honest, I am genuinely baffled by those revenue figures. I would have expected that as time goes by and the game remain unreleased, more and more backers would become disillusioned with the project and more reluctant to donate/pledge more cash, but instead it appears that revenue is ever-increasing. It just doesn't really add up, but I guess without a proper breakdown of the figures it's impossible to scrutinise in any detail.

    Feels like the explanation here is either that they are still finding new backers willing to pledge money for a game that's miles overdue and not looking like being ready any time soon (which seems unlikely), the existing donor base are repeatedly and increasingly putting their hands in their pockets (which is possible but again seems unlikely) or the revenue figures are bollocks.
     
  3. Gareth Halfacree

    Gareth Halfacree WIIGII! Staff Administrator Super Moderator Moderator

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    While I'm not discounting the latter, the middle option seems most likely: the whole house of cards is built around whales. Remember that the $27,000 Legatus Pack, which doesn't even get you all the ships, was hidden from view unless you'd already plunged $1,000 into the thing.
     
  4. bawjaws

    bawjaws Multimodder

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    Yeah, I guess it's the sunk cost fallacy writ large, but at the same time I struggle to see even the biggest whales combining to drive revenue up 60% year-on-year. It's hard not to be sceptical, or not to wonder at how sustainable this model can possibly be.

    $80m in sales is a hellishly big number. How many whales do we think are out there and what's the average annual spend? I would love to see a breakdown of backers by size of pledge.
     
  5. N17 dizzi

    N17 dizzi Multimodder

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    Well there is a release version (albeit in a perpetual state of alpha development) and to be fair I can see big improvements compared to say 2017, for example.

    It is certainly more stable and as graphically impressive as most other current games, with maybe Cyberpunk having trumped it graphically.

    I read the average was $80. Most unique users have allegedly pledged for a starter package but then there are those, and I've met one of them, that have pledged $40,000 or more and continue to pledge for every new ship.
     
  6. bawjaws

    bawjaws Multimodder

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    Ah, I have found the tracker and it says $338.6m raised (!) and 2.92m Star Citizens, so that's an average of $115 per backer (assuming every Citizen is a backer - see below). But I'm much more interested in the distribution of pledge money - as you say, I'd expect that the sizeable majority will have backed at the lowest tier (which I think was maybe $30 to $40?) which means that there's a significant rightward skew going on here!

    $80m in sales this year and $50m last year would imply c.1.1m new backers in two years at the current average of $115 per skull, which seems unlikely - I don't doubt that they have a stream of new backers but not at an average of 1,500 per day for the last two years (and accelerating year-on-year). I just wonder what the megawhale population is here and by extension how sustainable this can possibly be.

    $80m p.a. is $220k per day, and looking at the tracker they have had weeks where they've done $10m+ in sales. That seems insane and far beyond what could be expected to be raised from new backers, so it implies that the whales are pumping vast sums of money into this project on a continual basis. Madness.

    I've just refreshed the stats and the number of "Citizens" has gone up although the total raised hasn't, so again this implies that there will be people included in this total who aren't financial contributors, which means that the average per backer is likely to be understated above!
     
  7. N17 dizzi

    N17 dizzi Multimodder

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    Certainly many of the 'citizens' are alt accounts or empty accounts that have just tried free fly days.

    I'm not astonished by the figures at all. I've been saying it on this thread for some time that the money keeps pouring in, but now they also appear to be making genuine progress.
     
  8. SuperHans123

    SuperHans123 Minimodder

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    I'm amazed this hasn't reached court yet
     

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