Discussion in 'Serious' started by docodine, 26 Jan 2011.
Looks like Jordan could be next to do the democracy shuffle.
Al Jazeera is reporting over 1m people protesting in Cairo with another 250k in Alexandria and 250k in Suez protesting. With the army stating that they will not harm the protesters and are going to protect them (in contradiction to my previous post). It seems that it is only a matter of time before Mubarak is forced to either resign or stand down from any future elections.
Not seeing that happen yet. Mubarak could just sit it out. The army will not harm protesters, but they are also not allowing Mubarak to come to harm. Eventually people will have to go back home, go back to work and earn a crust etc. If he can hang tight for a week this could all blow over.
Mubarak has said announced that he will not run again.
Every concession encourages the protesters and the US has made it clear they would like to see him go, though perhaps not immediately, so now it's just a matter of timing. There will be even more on the streets tomorrow as they see how close they are.
Tell the Saudi's to make up another room in the former dictator's hotel.
RE: Jordan, I think this will play out differently. The King isn't seen as a dictator, but rather appears to continue to be highly respected. There is a different set of issues going on there including a large percentage of the population being Palestinian refugees who are not citizens. Jordan may see reforms in the coming months, but I suspect regime change is not on the menu.
Yemen is a fair bet for regime change, Algeria and Sudan possibilities, and Libya an unknown. None of these are considered friends, except maybe Yemen, and so the US will feel much more free to support the protesters. The Palestinian Authority is another one in serious danger of collapse, but their biggest supporter (Israel) is also the worst enemy by many of the people.
This. The dynamic is VERY different in Jordan. and the King has many more options. The reforms were already on the way, and the people stirring up trouble aren't the youth and average people, rather the right wing islamists. There are some protests, yes, but nothing like we are seeing in Egypt.
My Dad lives in Crete and they are getting quite worried about Libya as they a would quite likely receive a lot of refugees if things got out of hand. My friend who works in Libya doubts much will happen.
Mubarak'll be gone by Friday, I think. I'm not sure that it wouldn't be better to have him hang around for a month, at least to show El Baradei (or whoever's going to get an interim administration going) the ropes, though.
At this point it's really hard to tell. I'm watching the stream now, and it's really, really intense hearing the reporter they have in the middle of everything. Apparently a ton of pro Mubarak supporters are not only having a stand off with the protesters, they're also throwing rocks and attacking people. Lots of injuries. To be honest, it's just a mass of people, so I would assume it's hard to tell who is doing what.
If the protesters keep getting attacked like this it's going to be hard to maintain their presence. Here's to hoping they will though.
If the pro-Mubarak folks get too out of hand the military will have to step in, at least to keep the two sides apart. This will be viewed, rightly or wrongly, as them turning against the regime. Also, the violence by pro-Mubarak protesters will be associated with the regime and won't do him any good in the court of public opinion.
Remember, you're judged by the actions of your worst supporters (ask Jesus or Mohamed how that works out).
EDIT: The head of Yemen has said he will not run for another term.
The Times was intimating that Mubarak or his allies were stoking violence intentionally. That way, allegedly, they can better demonstrate how much you miss a Governmental iron fist when someone's flesh-and-blood fist is planted in the middle of your face. Saddam apparently covertly released tens of thousands of prisoners as the US invaded for much the same reason.
That doesn't seem like much of a conspiracy theory to be honest. There have been numerous reports that a ton of people are being recruited/paid to go to the square and just beat up the protesters. It's no secret that the police are involved on the pro-Mubarak side. You can also observe how violent it turned once the 'pro-Mubarak' protesters showed up, after days of peaceful protests.
I've seen those rumors, but I think it's easy to make too much of them.
In any society there is an element that's invested in the status quo. It may be because they're doing well under the present regime, resistance to change, or just because those damn kids are getting out of hand. There may also be an element of "Look what happened in Iraq" (things went completely to hell after regime change there). There is also probably some concern the Islamists will take over in a new government.
Still, the implication doesn't do the government any good.
EDIT: I'm kind of surprised the army hasn't driven a tank between the two sides and told them both to knock it off.
I watched them do just that a couple hours ago. A tank was laying down thick smoke between the two sides. MSNBC had good live aerial coverage of the square. The reporter for them said most of the gunfire they were hearing was coming from the Egyptian military firing "warning" shots. But, they were quick to point out that they couldn't accurately account for all of the gunfire of course.
I just hope those wounded can get out to receive the help they need.
Not a rumor anymore :
In short - authorities sent out the pro-Mubarak messages, which resulted in yesterday clash.
The last two days have conclusively demonstrated how Mubarak is a disgusting dictator who is only interested in his own power. He claims to have heard the protesters while attacking them, preventing supplies from reaching the wounded in Tahrir Square and beating journalists. The only thing to do is to remove him by force. Hopefully the Army will remove him from power.
Iraq's PM has now said he won't run again. Perhaps even in places that don't go through a revolution, this will lead to a breaking of the leadership stagnation.
EDIT: I've been talking to someone who lives in Egypt on another forum and he said the pro-Mubarak protests have been mostly peaceful, it's just the violent ones that have been reported. He also says that he supports Mubarak, at least for the transitional period, and that much of the pro-Mubarak movement is indeed organic rather than staged.
Some pictures from my friend on the other forum. I'm cross posting them with his permission. The captions are his...
I have attached some pics, the police man is crying because when they withdraw a huge bottled up rage towards police swept egypt. They where hated but what they did in the protests is beyond words .... Yet several days in the pro peaceful protests one is being carried on the shoulder of Egyptians ... cant say enough about these pictures but it does show that Humans are capable of extreme acts of violence and hate but are also capable of kindness and forgiving ... what can i say i love my country and i am who i am because i was brought up here ...
This is another picture, the soldiers had strict orders not to attack and they watched the violence and couldnt intervene this was a soldiers reaction to the blood that was spilled ...
i will try to post more pics but this one is Christians protecting their Muslim brothers as they pray .. i cant say enough about this pic except it really brought tears to my eyes ... this is what it means to unit as a country regardless of age, sex, religion, color, beliefs etc.... for the common good of all ...
Mubarak and family have ferrited away 70 billion
and we thought bill was rich!
If Egypt can build a solid self-governing country from this mess, $70B is a bargain.
...It's less than the West has spent on Iraq and Afghanistan for a worse result.
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