Discussion in 'Serious' started by Risky, 8 Jun 2017.
So... another election this year?
Just seeing liam fox and his equivocation over May. she's gone...
Listening to radio 4 now, the Labour attitude to the SNP is pretty antagonistic. "No deals with SNP", "we will have a Queen's Speech and the can vote against it if they dare".
And they aren't the only ones, seems a lot of parties are trying to rule out deals, not sure how many of those no deal statements survive the night though.
it will be a minority relying on backroom deals. the LDs proved coalitions give no bargaining power.
It looks like May may have done a Hillary . Overextended into stronger "pink" seats and neglected away marginals and home light blues.
Breaking news corbyn invites Neil kinnock to LHQ for a lesson for the prospective labour cabinet:
Tanks parked well on wee krankie's lawn...
Go on ruth!
Portillo moment? nick clegg loses seat!
Vince back in. I quite like Vince. The election giveth and the the election taketh away.
Farron may be in trouble....Maybe the Libs get a decent leader.
Ben gummer tory manifesto author, arch remainer and prospective may replacement to davis gone.
farron lives to fight another day.
bye bye alex
My prediction for what happens next:
May resigns, someone else takes over as Tory leader and whips up a less controversial manifesto, new GE scheduled to happen shortly before election in Germany...
They'd be incredibly stupid to if they land on 319, 10 DUP, 7 sinn fein not taking their seats, bercow (I'll have to check on deputy speakers) then they'll have a working majority of 7. a few by elections with a decent leader and back on course.
What has happened is she has built a campaign that's achilles heel was a single point of failure: herself. No engineer would have done a campaign like she has. She should have crowd-sourced more from her cabinet, used the cabinet as a team and sit in the background looking like a leader and practised some debating. Should have spent more time attacking away marginals and defending light blue seats because if that vote lead were to happen (the 12-20%) it would happen anyway.
Basically she's made the same mistake as hillary, got found out as unlikable, faced the same difficult election map, overextended her campaigning to pink seats rather than marginals, made it too much about her. Too much trust in her idiot SPADs (also arch remain ben gummer was probably the worst person to write the tory manifesto because even the good policies in the manifesto were made to look bad. I suspect he did it on purpose)
While i agree that she shouldn't have made it so much about her, she did that for a reason, she wanted it to be a Brexit election and she wanted to paint herself as a strong and stable person to lead the negotiations.
An idiom I've heard is how elections take on a life of there own and in this case it seems the election wasn't so much about Brexit as she had wished or planed for.
Well we've had some weird results and they don't correlate with brexit so much. Labour have managed to sneak through their support of customs union and EEA under the radar so could say "now we both agree on brexit, can we talk about the NHS?" The northern ireland result looks like polarisation to the more extreme parties from the SDLP and UUP to SF and DUP. The SNP got hammered by the hard brexiting tories on the basis of failing SNP policies and independence in decline. How the F welsh labour got away with it I don't know.
What we have to remember is that the vote share for May was the highest since 1979/83 for a tory and for corbyn 2001 for labour...
It looks like it was not Corbyn but May has taken us back to the 70's with talk of using the DUP to gain power.
Hard Brexit has come back and royally NSFWorked May.
I think it was a loss of faith in her and terribly spun policies not so much the flavour of brexit. Many think brexit was happening lab or con.
SF have confirmed they are not taking up their seats. But It could really piss on the tory chips if they joined comrade corbyn. but credit to them they have always kept their word on this one.
Good morning guys. Are we strong and stable yet?
He'd be the obvious choice, so therefore won't be chosen.
As I said before: Theresa May was playing the messiah trope, and that always ends messily in the end. Where did she fail?
She played it bold by calling the election --then suddenly played it safe by not answering any questions and making no debate appearances. You can't do both.
She made the election about Brexit, and then proceeded to not make it about Brexit.
She failed to sketch out a positive vision of a post-Brexit Britain. In fact, she failed to sketch out any vision of a post-Brexit Britain.
There were no Brexit unicorns, only more austerity. People just voted Brexit for unicorns and to end austerity.
Instead she alienated her strongest voter base with the dementia tax and sacrificing triple-locked pensions. Realistic? Yes. Popular? Hell no.
What we have to remember is that May started with a landslide advantage of over 400 potential seats, and has ended up with twelve seats fewer than she started with --against Jeremy Corbyn.
Jeremy meanwhile, came from a huge disadvantage, ridiculed and vilified by the media, undermined by many of his own MPs, and managed to less than halve the Tory lead and finish strong and stable May's career. He is still standing --his position as leader of his party is now stronger than ever. He's like ****ing Obi Wan Kenobi.
So tell me, who has just shown themselves to be the better negotiator for Brexit?
Letting the care policy get spinned into a dementia tax was silly. Bloody ben gummer wrote that manifesto and considering his brexit views I wager a stitch up. Lib dems and cons got 49.6 between them running few unicorns to UKIP, labour, greens, SNP on 46.7% on ranches of unicorns. So 48.5 to 51.5 ranches of unicorns to few unicorns.
She should have had a neutral manifesto, sat in the background and used her cabinet and MPs like mogg. Ruth Davidson has been the model, not made it all about her, got decent policy and PR out. Saved the Tories arse completely.
It's the yoof vote innit like sanders.... looks like he's staying on and we'll have an actual communist party if the tories cling on through the boundary review.
I know same as 2005.... Would be a great PM.
There's not much talent in that commons... Many tories are awful... most of labour are god awful
Taking the voters for granted failed again.
And Corbyn's decision to throw the EU referendum turned out to be smarter than it looked at the time.
Strong and stable my toosh, we were told how only Cameron could provide strong leadership and he called a referendum in an attempt to stop the public and his own MPs abandoning the Conservatives for UKIP.
Mrs May ramped that up and told us how strong leadership isn't going to cut it anymore and we now need strong and stable leadership, and then called an election in an attempt to quell Conservative infighting.
Say what you like about infighting but at least when other parties squabble among themselves they don't gamble the future of the country on the outcome.
I've not looked into who Ben Gummer is but no matter how much he screwed up isn't the responsibility for his screw up firmly on the bosses shoulders, I mean in the end the boss gave him that job, the boss checked his work, the boss signed off on it.
Bollocks. Theresa May can't read a manifesto and get a feel for how that will play with the electorate? Then why is she God
No, this was simply a: "We'll get a landslide vote anyway, so now is the time to push through some unpopular policies, because all eyes will be on Brexit". Completely forgetting that Brexit was won on a populist vote for the promise of unicorns, so people want to see the damn unicorns already.
And that promise of Brexit unicorns is going to haunt British politics for the next decade. Brexit destroyed the last sensible politics in this country.
Mogg would have done even worse than Theresa May. The man is a caricature. What she should have done is pushed David Davis forward to sketch a positive view of a post-Brexit Britain. But she won't even let him lead the negotiations. Makes you wonder why not, no?
The yoof actually has to live with the consequences of Brexit. Seems fair they should get a say. All those retired Tory voters will be dead in a decade (a colleague actually overheard this conversation in a queue in a post office in Solihull: a couple of blue-rinse upper middle class Leave voting ladies saying that: "Ah well, if Brexit turns out to be a mistake, we'll be dead by then anyway" /shrug).
But that doesn't matter. What matters is that Theresa May turns out to be a piss-poor strategist; Jeremy Corbin turns out to be a brilliant one. Now who is more likely to make a success of the Brexit negotiations?
BTW the winner of this year's smugness award: YouGov.
Apparently Theresa May says she's not resigning.
So expect her to resign by lunchtime.
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