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Ukraine Russian invasion

Discussion in 'Serious' started by Otis1337, 1 Mar 2014.

  1. Xlog

    Xlog Active Member

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    This was predictable as f***. The only question now is who the next target of this "Russia only protecting their citizens" strategy will be. I wouldn't be surprised if it was a NATO member, let's say Latvia (because large portion of it's citizens are pro-Russia) and I would be even less surprised if NATO did nothing.

    Also, wasn't this how Germans gained foothold in Europe pre-WW2? i.e. allies doing nothing while axis invading countries left and right?
     
  2. G0UDG

    G0UDG helping others costs nothing

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    You are forgetting one important fact the ousted president was elected the interim government is made up with far right fascists amongst them who are a great threat to the safety of many Russian nationals and are an unelected illegal government. Russia's involvement is one of protecting its citizens from harm I personally see nothing wrong in that. Plus the rise of the far right needs to be stopped to protect democracy and equality
     
  3. faugusztin

    faugusztin I *am* the guy with two left hands

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    1) the election argument - Sadam Hussein was voted by 90%+ too, that still doesn't change the fact that he was a dictator. Same in Belarus and other countries. Usually revolutions are against "elected" leaders.
    2) Illegal government argument - sorry, but that is a "stupid" argument. First of all, the 2004 constitution they reverted (and which was even in the agreement with Yanukovich) allows for removal of president via impeachment process, which actually happened. Also the government comes from having majority in parliament - which Yanukovich party doesn't have anymore, as half of their members left that party.
    3) Every country has right wing radicals, just because they were among the protesters doesn't make all of them fascist. Right now it is Russia doing Nazi tactics (annexation of Sudeten due "dangers against Germans" vs technically the annexation of Crimea due "danger against Russians"), so good job on that "argument".

    Clearly people are forgetting stuff like Munich agreement or "invitation letter" to Czechoslovakia... Technically, if Russia annexes Ukraine, we are starting Cold War 2.

    Russia should also weigh the benefits vs losses - because losses will be great. Russia will be probably kicked out of G8, there will be economical sanctions, Baltic NATO countries could be inviting US army to have bases in their countries to have better protection, American anti-rocket system building in Poland will probably come back to life...
     
    Last edited: 1 Mar 2014
  4. Harlequin

    Harlequin Well-Known Member

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    Ukraine military is now mobilising en masse - ground troops are quite significant , T-64BM and T-80`s in numbers (1000+) , in fact the primary troops are mechanised infantry or heavy tanks , they field more than the uk do.

    the airforce will likely be having ALOT of resoures thrown at it - they have mig 29`s and su-27`s , but most are in a level of maintenance , but like every war machine , when needs must the equipment is found. the longer anyone waits , the more Ukraine can throw at the bear - but the bear can throw back.


    if a real shooting war starts it will get very messy .
     
  5. faugusztin

    faugusztin I *am* the guy with two left hands

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    Sure, but that would be economical and political suicide of Russia. Not like if their moves right now aren't already partially that.

    I wouldn't be surprised at removal of veto power of Russia in UN security council if the full scale war starts. This will really hurt Russia more in long term. But hey, Putin clearly wants restoration of Soviet Union, let's hope we in Central Europe aren't in their "sphere of influence" anymore.
     
  6. Harlequin

    Harlequin Well-Known Member

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    they can turn off the heat , in winter , to millions of Ukraine citizens - total warfare includes everyone :(
     
  7. faugusztin

    faugusztin I *am* the guy with two left hands

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    Sure Harlequin, but then in short term they would have to turn off the heat to their own too, because economic collapse of Russia would be pretty quick. Russia can turn off the gas to Ukraine only if they also want to turn it off for majority of their customers too (Europe to west of Ukraine borders). Sure, first to freeze would be us in post-communist area, but the rest of the Europe isn't prepared to be free of Russian gas either (percentage of gas imported from Russia, or should i start calling them USSR again ?) :
    Germany – 37%
    Italy – 25%
    Turkey – 60%
    France – 16%
    Hungary – 65%
    Poland – 40%
    Czech Republic – 75%
    Austria – 51%
    Greece – 90%
    Bulgaria – 92%
    Serbia – 85%

    If they turn off the gas pipeline to UA & EU, then they will have a problem of what to do with that gas. China would be happy to get some gas, but unfortunately for Russia, the pipeline was canceled.

    So they need to sell gas to EU for now, and the only way to do that is through Ukraine. Ok, there is an alternative through Belarus, Poland, Germany and then reverse flow through Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary etc. But i don't think those pipelines are big enough for that task.

    And if they do invade and annex Ukraine, then they also have to prepare for quick loss of clients in Europe, because no one will want to be dependent on Russia anymore. Plus gas is not that effective weapon anymore.
     
  8. Harlequin

    Harlequin Well-Known Member

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    this has actually reminded me - when I was at college , this entire conversation wouldn't have really been possible - since I was actually in berlin on a school trip in 1989 and in college before the velvet revolution!

    how times change and for the better!


    anyway I apologise - yes its down to how far putin wants to push this the world isn't the same place as in the 90`s and tanks and nukes are not really the weapons they were - you can do more damage economically than the `instant sunshine` could do.
     
  9. Guest-16

    Guest-16 Guest

    That's very insightful, thank you!
     
  10. faugusztin

    faugusztin I *am* the guy with two left hands

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    Well, for starters it seems the G8 meeting in Sochi this year is going to be a G1 meeting.
     
  11. faugusztin

    faugusztin I *am* the guy with two left hands

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    Ok, this is a pure joke from Russia :
    Yeah, it's not like Russia got 2 million workers from Ukraine, which sometimes go home and visit the family, especially considering the Orthodox New Year is on January 14th.

    Lies, damn lies and statistics.

    Edit: Also, it is interesting they "flee" only towards Russia. Not a single one towards Romania or Moldova.
     
    Last edited: 2 Mar 2014
  12. G0UDG

    G0UDG helping others costs nothing

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    Why Oh Why are people so apathetic towards the far right threat in the Ukraine we cannot let this continue to grow as many thousands of people will suffer
     
  13. Pliqu3011

    Pliqu3011 all flowers in time bend towards the sun

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    Did you read faugusztin's reply?
    Because that "far right threat" is pretty much insignificant compared to the whole.

    What's your solution then, if we're not allowed to support the "dangerous" "far right" Ukranian protesters? Let Russia take over the whole place, because they only want to protect people from those disgusting fascists?

    To phrase it like you just did: we cannot let this continue as many thousands of people will suffer.
     
  14. faugusztin

    faugusztin I *am* the guy with two left hands

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    Your logic makes no sense G0UDG, you would justify a invasion of a whole country and possibly deaths and/or emmigration of millions from Ukraine towards EU members by a imaginary threat, that maybe a far right party could be part of a interim government for 3 months until the elections.

    Hey, a far right guy won a regional elections here in Slovakia, should we expect invasion from Russia soon too ? Hey, BNP support UK is on rise, should UK expect invasion from Russia soon due the far right threat ?
     
  15. Harlequin

    Harlequin Well-Known Member

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  16. Anfield

    Anfield Well-Known Member

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    According to various people on twitter there was a number of arrests at a peaceful anti war protest in Moscow.
     
  17. IvanIvanovich

    IvanIvanovich будет глотать вашу душу.

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    Of course Russia is going to enter Crimea when Ukraine is in an upheaval. They need to be sure that their military assets don't end up in the hands of the extreme right ultra-nationalists that are going around yelling about Russian ethnic cleansing and being violent morons. Granted those are not a majority group, but they could be a real threat and would be more so if they suddenly became well armed. It's always possible such groups can gain traction. After all the NSDAP party started as a small fringe group too, and ended up in charge when people decided they liked the honey being poured in their ears and abandoned reason.

    The whole situation in Ukraine amazes me really. Especially I am amazed at the response from US and other western media that seems to think EuroMaidan is some kind of heros... if there was an identical group in the US they would have been labeled terrorists and crushed immediately. But since they are in Ukraine and anti-Russia they get approval of their actions. While they may have some valid claims, I can't respect the way they went about things.
    I'm also not sure why they are under the idea that somehow the EU will magically solve any problems. Part of them were already a valid political party operating on an official capacity on the inside. Instead of operating in a correct way, they instead decided to support and help in bring on a coup that only about half the country wanted.
    Not that I support Yanukovych and the rest that ran away either. If they really believed in what they were doing, they should have stayed and been responsible leaders even if they were poor ones. Instead they showed their true colors and fled like cowards and not take any blame for the mess they made.

    Certainly Putin wants to ensure Ukraine continues to be open to using what is in place for military installations and access to sea ports for economic reasons. There are agreements made for those things going back into the 90's. Sure it is a bully tactic, but Russia can't afford to loose those things. As big of a country as Russia is they really have very few decent sea ports so of course they are going to be worried about loosing access to several. They want to ensure they will have at least some co-operation even from a not as friendly government. Likely the new government will concede to that and Russia will withdraw once some order is restored. Additionally Russia was invited there by Crimea officials that don't recognize the authority of the new government. From their point of view they are also concerned about force coming in from the western areas which of course they do not want.
    Otherwise, if it escalates to a full on civil war I think it will end up something like what happened in Yugoslavia where in the end the country will break up into 2 or 3 new countries based largely around ethnic lines.
    In any case I don't think it's very likely that the EU or US will really want to get involved. Beyond talking smack and making largely idle threats to Russia they will keep out of it. All intervening would do is cause a bigger escalation and possibly even result in another world war which I don't think many are particularly interested in really.

    As far as claims of those fleeing to Russia... surely if they are Russian ethnicity and speak Russian as their primary or only language they are going to go into Russia which seems more familiar and friendly. Romania and most of Moldova isn't exactly pro-Russia either. For many people the prospect of ending up in a potential danger area is not that appealing, so getting out while it is possible to a safer place would make sense.
     
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  18. Harlequin

    Harlequin Well-Known Member

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    will get messy when the shooting war starts - the first ukraian heavy armour is heading south - T84`s and mechanised infantry.
     
  19. faugusztin

    faugusztin I *am* the guy with two left hands

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    You realize the number of Russian soldiers at Russian naval base on Crimea is huge. Also, why do they need to unarm regular Ukrainan army (they are threatening to attack the 3 regular Ukrainan army bases in Crimea if they don't give the weapons to Russians). Does the regular UA army look like Nazis to you ?

    Sure, like South Osettia, Abchazia, Nagorno-Karabakh... Like Central Hungary in '56-90 and Czechoslovakia '68-90. I will believe in that when i will see it, likelihood of that happening is slim.

    Which they don't have authority to do, as that right belongs to Ukrainan government.

    So instead, we see Russians occupying Ukrainan territory. Imaginary threat versus real occupation, good job.

    It will also end up with Russia being isolated more than North Korea.

    They don't want to, but US & UK will have to, look up the Budapest Memorandum.

    Edit: http://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2014/03/2/7017054/ <-- 1tv.ru saying 140k people fleeing from Ukraine to Russia... And then showing lines at the Ukraine-Polish border. I wonder if Polish invented a teleport to solve that problem.
     
    Last edited: 2 Mar 2014
  20. Solidus

    Solidus Superhuman

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    Im probably a bit dense to whats going on as I haven't turned the TV on in a while - A part of Ukraine is being invaded by Russia I take it? and the Ukrainian leader has done a runner from what I can tell?

    Did I miss anything?

    O_O
     

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