Was reading on Autocar a few minutes ago and, came across this: https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/...crisis-looms-used-electric-car-values-plummet Unfortunately, most of the article is hidden behind a paywall so, I did a quick search and found this: https://www.motortrader.com/motor-t...ed-market-sees-values-13-year-year-20-03-2023 May be a good time to be buying used rather than new.
Get yourself a 12ft ladder https://12ft.io/proxy?&q=https://ww...crisis-looms-used-electric-car-values-plummet
It's definitely not cheap. After I made our old car a foot shorter, last November, we went with a small Diesel, a Citroën DS3. Plenty of torque for easy brisk progress and 57+ mpg. Leccy cars can wait, I don't believe they are the whole solution but, we are going to be stuck with them.
all cars increased massively the past few years due to constraint brought on by world events, so you had scenarios where people who bought/leased cars in 2018/2019 were finding that due to the ramp up their cars they had been running for 3yrs were worth more than they had paid and had massive equity >£10k, so would just purchase a new one because why not. The lack of new cars into the market made a strange scenario where if you put an order in for a vehicle the lead time was 12 month and that was with a question mark, I happened to be looking for a replacement vehicle and I could find nothing, any new cars that came in were basically being flipped immediately for profit on the used market like the GPU scene, which like the GPU scene had manufacturers adjusting prices up For most part though it was still the case that I could order a car >10k cheaper than buying a nearly new that was available now, you just didn't know when it would arrive, me I ordered 5 cars from different manufacturers with the goal of paying for what ever arrived first, things were that bad Prices reducing now because things are returning to normal and people are struggling with costs, not really a surprise, a couple of other factors effecting EVs are also Tesla throwing a hand grenade into the used market by lopping massive money off of its new prices, disrupting the market and confidence in buying of their vehicles, in addition the reduction in the cost of Lithium now there are competing battery technologies mean it is not the only game in town, this will also help to bring down new prices and of course have a knock on for used over time. So rather than dropping, consider it correcting to where it should be. For some EVs I still think new is a better deal than used mind you. Once more Chinese brands flood Europe prices for EV will come down further, if you don't mind buying Chinese. You shouldn't do nearly every EV is built there. Also of course, that article from Autocar is partially dealer doing dealer things and trying to make more money, my dealer tried this with my trade in, but I don't need a new car, well apart from the old one now costing £9 a day to drive in Bristol, but I have far more polluting cars I can drive in that are free seeing the changes in market coming, I could easily buy used or just wait another year, so told them to bugger off, honour the contract which they actually lowballed me on any way as they anticipated a time of 12 months and based trade in on that, or I walk, a year or so ago they would have let me walk due to ease of flipping, but now they had had to recalculate in my favour.
Even ignoring the strange place the used car market has been in the last few years, it's not really surprising. As EVs become more popular there are going to be more on the road and on the market. New prices are going to come down and technology is going to move forwards (faster than internal combustion), meaning used prices are going to go down. Battery life and health tends to decline pretty linearly, so as it always has been when buying used it's a question of what you want/need. If you buy a used car you don't expect it to perform as if it were new, but that's fine if it is priced proportionately and does what you need it to do. I think batteries are going end up being to be thought of the same way engines traditionally have been. Technically you can change them, but by the time that becomes something you might want to do the cost relative to the age/value of the rest of the car means it doesn't make sense.
I noticed this the other day when looking on auto trader. I'm in market for a new car and dabbled with the idea of an EV. I'm still not 100% sold but the change in price was noticeable and appealing. A couple year old Tesla Model 3 with a 10-20% deposit is actually quite sensibly priced when looking at financing. cheaper than much else I've considered at the moment. The Mustang Mach-E, actually within my budget (just) without having to slap down a monster deposit.... Just need the salary for a Porsche Taycan...
Cost of replacement battery (not including labour) Honda E, £3'100 ex VAT Vauxhall Corsa E, £4'100 Kia EV6, £10'000 Drum roll please, Tesla models S, starting at £17'000 up to £29'000 Basically, almost all of those batteries cost more than I paid for my Skoda Fabia. My Fabia is fine, it's a nice car, no rust, everything works, runs fine. EV batteries are usually warrantied for 8 years or 100'000 miles, so in my case it's warrantied for 3-ish years. Arguing fuel costs is all well and good, but fuel costs comes a bit at a time, I doubt anyone driving an EV is putting those savings into a holding account for the battery replacement when it comes. The used EV market will get adjusted as more and more people get stuffed with bills matching what they paid for the car. Anything more than 5 years old is essentially worthless unless the dealer fits a brand new battery. On that note my next car will likely be a petrol hybrid.
It's more a matter of miles done than pure age. The 1st generation leafs which had terrible battery mgmt are still kicking but at reduced range. It is definitely an issue that the range drops but it hardly means it needs replacing. Hyundai warranty their battery to 70% of capacity after 100k miles. Most cars are near end of life at 100k so it's highly plausible that the battery will outlast the car for most ev owners
This is kinda the point - every Pro-EV argument I've seen just dances around the whole battery manufacture/life/disposal issue and goes "look at the nasty fossil fuels being burnt over there!" If they work for you, great (not you, Fix, obvs). I have no doubts that battery technology will eventually develop to the point where it becomes a no-brainer, but we ain't there yet; so dropping the holier than thou BS would be much appreciated.
I think that is just wrong. Temperature and temperature management is a factor, but fairly typical seems to be a reduction in range of 2-4% per year with the rate of decline reducing with age. That's in measured real world use, so that is measuring less advanced models than those on sale today. That means a car 10 years old with the normal mileage over that period is still going to have a very significant and useful portion of it's original range intact. You can buy new electric cars with both 200 mile and 300 mile ranges now. ...So if the one with 300 miles of range loses 100 miles of range in getting on for a decade, does that make it worthless after that time? Even the other one, with 120 miles or so of range at that age, is that worthless for the right person at the right price?
Back what when I was a nipper learning to drive that was the cut off point for cars, nowadays if a car dosen't get to 200k I'd be miffed
No, but it does turn a practical car into a city car, especially if you consider the additional 10 - 20% loss in range during winter.
With respect, that's just plain wrong. Given even halfway decent maintenance, a modern diesel engined car will piss past 100k without breaking a sweat. I had a 2004 Passat with over 200K on it before some irresponsible tw@t rear ended it at 60mph and killed it, about eight years ago. In that time, the only major work it needed was a new clutch and timing chain, spaced about 100k miles apart. My Audi A3 had over 110k on when I traded it in and had reached 142k at it's most recent MOT in July '22, according to the MOT check website.
As mentioned in the other thread: My wife's Nissan Leaf is over 8 years old now. It is first generation EV without anything to actively look after the battery. Around new year time I see BMS thinks it has 80% original capacity. That means just under 18 kWh of capacity out of just over 22 kWh original. EV batteries are designed to last more than life of the car. 5 years old battery warranty for my wife's Leaf. After 8 years the capacity is still waaaay above trigger for warranty. Vast majority of EV's since ~2018 have 8 years battery warranty. Would you demand dealerships fit a new engine to ICE car at 2 years mark when warranty is 3 years and the only fault is that it had lost a few BHP? EV batteries degrade slowly. As long as the range is sufficient it works fine. I mean, 18 kWh from a very first generation EV is so much for local runabout, we plan to use V2H to draw power from it throughout the day! Well looked after battery with active thermal management and TOA updates to BMS should have no problem lasting a long time and many miles with low level of degradation. Using OBD tool, I see Tesla maintains battery temperature above 10c throughout the winter. Whereas unmanaged Leaf falls down to 4 temperature bars, which is below 10c IIRC. Although I think battery degradation is more time than miles. There's news of 150k miles Leaf taxi (with less degradation than my Leaf!) or hundreds k miles Tesla. After 10 years degradation, increased internal resistance means it'll charge slower and wouldn't have as much capacity, that's just life, but you can be sure it will continue to work without needing any maintenance. For topic of the thread: used EV pricing. It's more of a correction. It was never sustainable to have £40k Model 3's selling for same amount a year older. Cars are supposed to depreciate about 50% after 3-4 years. It's still not there yet, the percentage depreciation of EV's is still less than in 2017 when I bought my ~2.5 years old Leaf for £8800, that was the all time low for EV's. Because we are getting Leaf Vehicle-2-Home installed soon. I'm hoping to snap up a 2018 Leaf 40 Tekna (red, wife's only criteria) for £10k-£12k come winter. Then will allow me to possibly buy 20 kWh cheap and sell at peak time, if this V2H trial allows selling to grid. Current price is 8p/kWh profit, ~£550 per year doing nothing.
I guess it depends where you live, but 180 miles of range doesn't seem like a city car to me. That's Portsmouth to London, or Exeter to Bristol, both ways without a charge. Obviously it's no good if you often travel those sorts of distances and further, but I'd be interested to know how often a lot of people actually in practice drive that far without a substantial stop where charging wouldn't be a big inconvenience. The good thing is that sort of reduction in range is over a long period of time (10 years, and I was trying to be pessimistic with the numbers). As long as you don't start out with marginal range it won't be a pressing concern for a good amount of time. Then when the time comes finding someone willing to buy who is content with the reduced but still substantial range shouldn't really be a problem.
That'd be me*, 185 miles is my to and from work commute, work haven't and show no interest in installing chargers despite offering a salary sacrifice scheme for EV's. Sure I could stop at a super charger, but when you're spending 4 hours commuting adding an extra 30 - 60 minutes to your drive doesn't really work. * Yes I know, I'm special, an outlier to the EV eutopia, which is a shame as I'd love a Polestar or Rivian.
I bought Leaf 24 for 58 miles commute, it had 60-70 miles of range in winter. Plan was to use it as school run car when it was no longer able to support my commute. Luckily, workplace charger was installed in 2019 when it was struggling. Now it's a pure local runabout, range is never a concern. 10 years 66% SoH (state of health) is very pessimistic. My first gen Leaf over 8 years old still has 80% SoH. Tesla's seems to be well over 80% at 10 years or 150k+ miles mark, according to first few google results. The thing with cars is that whether it suits you is a very personal opinion. There is no right answer and no one is pushing anyone to buy an EV in the next 10 years. The only thing that gets shouted at is misinformation (such as battery need replacing after 5 years), but this challenge of belief may feel like a push to something you don't want. Remember, it's not, it's only a challenge of misinformation.
I'd be looking at 500-600 miles range before I'd see them as a viable alternative, or some massive shift in charging technology that takes barely any longer than filling up your tank. Not for the commute, my trip to work is tiny now, but I live in the south and make several trips to the north east and Scotland every year (much more so that normal this last year), and I rarely stop on the way.
