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Xbox One Wild speculation time! Next MS console

Discussion in 'Gaming' started by Guest-16, 8 Mar 2011.

  1. Jedra

    Jedra Supermodel

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    Any new console is 3 odd years away at least I would say. By then broadband speeds will have picked up. Also don't forget that the UK is lagging behind anyway and MS are interested in the world market, not just the UK. I think as well as broadband speeds increasing as a whole, the distribution technology will also improve which will mean that games will probably 'download as you play' so the console will never hold a full game anyway, just the level or area you are in. DICE are already experimenting with this in their Frosbite 2 engine where the immediate area is loaded only - I can see this being extended to the online. MS have also invested huge amounts in cloud technology - this is the future.

    I still do not see this new console being anything but download only - it would be a retrograde step for them to do anything otherwise.
     
  2. Cei

    Cei pew pew pew

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    Broadband speeds won't have "picked up" in 3 years to the point where downloading 15-20GB is an everyday occurrence. BT will have rolled out Infinity a bit more, so maybe our average connection speeds may be over 10mbit, but that still isn't really enough - and being an average, you'll get those poor sods still stuck down on 2.

    Plus the US is in an even worse state. Cities get good connections, rural is terrible.


    Download only consoles will happen, but not the next generation. You've also got to consider the rest of the games industry - namely all those folks working in retail.
     
  3. Jedra

    Jedra Supermodel

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    It's unlikely you'll be downloading 15-20Gb per day, you'll be downloading what you need for that level - if you play a lot then maybe you could end up downloading a fair amount of data per day over the day, but this is not going to be only speed dependent. Of course the ISP industry is going to have to rethink the way it handles quotas, but this is going to be consumer driven. Gamers are going to migrate to the most game friendly ISPs.

    The next console (like the current one) will have a ten year plan - there is no way it's going to be another ten years before we have download only content.

    Microsoft don't care about the retail games market - it is dying a death anyway!
     
  4. Hex

    Hex Paul?! Super Moderator

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    ^This really. You also have to look at the way ISPs are going and the caps seem to be getting more & more restrictive unless you're willing to pay a premium. Maybe there will be deals with ISPs and your gaming download limit could be part of a package? I don't know.

    I just don't think physically media will be out of the window for the next gens, it's too soon and not enough will change in the 3-5yrs before they come out. I also don't think the 10yr plan thing would make a difference to the console itself. As we all agree that digital distribution will be a bigger thing in time to come, but I think teething issues with the cloud gaming you are talking about will mean people will still want whole games on their console before they start playing. The price of HDDs dropping so much means I could see it having an SSD for superfast startup and the OS and a large HDD for storing games and media. It's obvious now that combing games and media (videos/music) is something most people want. That being said I see no reason why they wouldn't launch a console that uses physically media with the option to download stuff (as we have now), but have them work on the digital distribution side at the same time. Then later down the line maybe release a streamlined version of it with no optical drive for those who don't want to watch DVDs/BR/Whatever else we have by then.
     
    Last edited: 16 Mar 2011
  5. Jedra

    Jedra Supermodel

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    Microsoft will be focused on a couple of aspects;

    1. Reducing Piracy
    2. Utilising their investment in cloud computing.

    To achieve 1, they will not include a hard drive or any optical media devices. They may have a small amnout of storage to hold whatever is being played, but not to store a 'whole game' or a 'whole movie'. If the game is not stored anywhere other than the cloud then it becomes extremely difficult to pirate it.

    You just have to deal with MS on a daily basis to see how serious they are about cloud computing. Most of their office apps will be on the cloud in a couple of years and I really do think that this is the technology they will use to deliver media to their new console.

    As for caps - yes they are getting more and more prevelent. This is because the ISPs are reluctant to invest in the infrastructure to allow 'capless' users across the board. This will need to change and will be driven by the consumers. I have said it in a previous post, but it would not surprise me at all if Microsoft offer their own network to support the new console. They have the infrastructure in place to do this just about now anyway. They would also be able to exercise a lot more control over the performance and they will be able to get people into a 'subscription model' when they buy the console - hey they could even offer it for free this way.

    ISPs are going to have to wake up and either invest in the infrastructure or get out of the market if MS don't do it themselves.
     
  6. Flibblebot

    Flibblebot Smile with me

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    Unfortunately, it's not the ISPs that invest in the infrastructure, it's BT. The ISPs just lease stuff from BT (apart from stuff like DSLAMs at LLU-enabled exchanges).

    When even not 100% of exchanges are LLU-enabled yet, how do you expect BT to have increased overall speed five-fold in the next couple of years? Even if MS offered their own network like you suggest (and how much will they charge for that?!), it'll still be based on BT's backbone.

    Like Cei said above, this situation is not limited to the UK. Other countries have similar problems, the US included: broadband availability and speed is brilliant in major urban centres, but as soon as you move away from those, speed and availability drop off exponentially.

    Microsoft won't be releasing an online only console in the next couple of years. It'll probably be a half-way house: physical media with online registration (& locking that game to your console, keeping the developers happy and the secondhand market non-existent) similar to Steam on the PC; or (for those that have the connection to handle it), game downloading & registration similar to Steam.

    Cloud-computing and on-demand downloading of game areas are "nice to haves", but the infrastructure just isn't there yet, nor will it be in sufficient volumes within the next 2-3 years.
     
  7. fulei1979

    fulei1979 What's a Dremel?

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    Hope there will be no problem like 3 red rings this time.
     
  8. sausages

    sausages What's a Dremel?

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    Yeah, and you often can't even pay your way out of trouble. Unlike what the guy on previous page says, "If you want infrastructure you have to pay for it", throwing money at stuff can backfire.

    The 20mbit connection I have now, did not have any restrictions on it when it was new. It was great. But since then they have increased my monthly fees and imposed caps on it too, without even giving me a new contract. They just went ahead and did it. So although the 50mbit connection apparently doesn't have caps now, I'm unlikely to pay even more for it, because I think it's safe to assume that once they reach certain numbers, they will just put the limits on everyone on that connection too.

    It's also not like I'm being cheap either. For my connection, a phoneline with the free national call thing, and 2 v+ boxes with sport but no movies, my average monthly bill is about £110. That's a crap load of money.
     
  9. shigllgetcha

    shigllgetcha Minimodder

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    But theyll start designing it in the next year or two, they wont wait untill the last minute to decide whether theyll go download only or keep discs

    There are some people that cant even get broadband in Ireland, add that to the people that just dont want broadband and are happy to play offline only, people who just have 3g, people who cant afford a really god connection(I pay the equivalent of £44/m for 3meg) and people that simply dont have the option to get a fast connection and I say no its not possible for the next xbox to be download only. I cant see all these hurdles disappearing in two years

    The target market for consoles is alot different than the PC market
     
    Last edited: 17 Mar 2011
  10. Jedra

    Jedra Supermodel

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    Quite right - and I would be extremely surprised if they have not already decided on their strategy.

    I'll eat my hat (I would need to buy one first), damn, I would eat YOUR hat if their new console is anything other than downloaded distribution only.
     
  11. memeroot

    memeroot aged and experianced

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    it doesn't need to be just broadband

    how much does a card reader cost to add?

    it will just be mostly broadband
     
  12. Hex

    Hex Paul?! Super Moderator

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    Well you'll know very soon I would imagine because backwards compatibility is a big thing and as the new console will come out when a lot of people still have working 360s and relatively new games, I would assume for it to go digital distribution only that new games coming out would have to include some kind of serial number. So that you could link your physical copy to a 'cloud' based one. Most people won't pay twice for the same game and MS are going to want to keep hold of the fan-base that prefers their huge back catalogue.
     
  13. shigllgetcha

    shigllgetcha Minimodder

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    Is there a reason the PS3 and xbox 360 have so little ram, was it because of costs or is there some technical reason?

    What amount of ram do people think itll ave?
     
  14. Jedra

    Jedra Supermodel

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    Yeah, I can see that they might have to do something about backwards compatability - but I am not sure what they will do. They might just say 'want to play your old games, well do that on your old 360'. To be honest, every time I have played an old game in a new console, I have always been disappointed and never bothered. They always seem to start off supporting backwards compatibility and then dropping it.

    So, not sure about this one!
     
  15. Lenderz

    Lenderz Minimodder

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    I'm that guy!

    You know what, I was on Blueyonder originally, then Virgin Media, as the technology has matured I've progressed through 2meg, 4meg, 10meg, 20meg and now 50meg, give it another 6 months or so probably 100meg. I think I've experienced one price increase in 10 years + when moving to 50. I still have the same TV package and Phone package as you it seems (only with one V+ box) and I'm only paying £75 per month. I did get throttled once or twice on the 10 meg package, I kicked up a fuss (and was out of contract) they gave me a free upgrade to 20meg which was at the time unthrottled. Perhaps you don't negotiate hard enough come contract renewal time?

    Incidentally Virgin Media (Cable, their ADSL might have different clauses) doesn't have any limits, only throttling, if you wanted to download a 20 gig game after 9PM they won't throttle you, or before 4Pm so you've got 19 of 24 hours with which to get your game at a decent speed.

    Anyway the point that I was trying to make is that the market will dictate what investment the ISPs make into their networks, not all ISPs use BT's backbone and should there be high enough consumer demand to have high download caps, or no throttling, and people are willing to pay for those changes they will happen, that is the nature of the capitalist system in which we live, capitalism can often lead to service providers doing a “race to the bottom” rather than a “race to the top” which is what essentially happened, the ISP's that “won” weren't competing on price, rather they were seeing how many mainstream users they could sign up on poor quality deals for the lowest price. And people went for it, because unlike the difference between an Mercedes or a 1980s Fiat, to Average Joe having “an internet” was having “an internet”.

    The fact is we're living in an age where unlimited dial-up internet got the majority of the population online, ISPs over subscribed on those deals and honestly couldn't see what was in front of their nose, how the internet would evolve. As the technology and the speeds have improved its become more and more visible, and running an ISP on those low prices for “unlimited” like they used to proclaim its next to impossible to make a decent margin, without a decent margin its next to impossible to invest in infrastructure.

    Once people demand 20 meg+ speeds with high, or no caps or throttling, and those people are willing to pay for the privilege it will happen, but its going to be an evolution of how internet is delivered.

    With the increase of web video, and the average person not just us geeks downloading more and more the networks loads have increased massively, which is one of the driving forces of BT's investment in FTTC which will increase their network capability massively, but like I said in my original post, they have been given substantial assurances from the government that in return for their investment and commitment to roll out FTTC they will be able to charge a decent whack for it without too much regulation. But given a few years you should be able to get in most decent population areas 40meg internet due to this investment.

    I hope that helps clarify what I meant by “but you'll have to pay for it.” I was looking at the complaints of existing infrastructure, and theory-crafting applying what knowledge I have of the BT developments. (I'm working on a BT project connected to this now currently.) A lot of what has happened to make the infrastructure appear worse has been a hangover of over selling, and over subscribing when people wanted all you can eat for £15, of course quality will suffer in that market, how can it not when utilisation and speed has increased massively. The market has demanded cheap, available connections over and above fast and unlimited, but with the changes to online video, part in thanks to the BBC in the UK that is changing, people want to watch their iPlayer in HD and don't want to know about limits, whilst previously average joe could barely tell the different between 10 meg or 50 meg other than its the internet.

    Will devices such as the next Xbox wait for the infrastructure to already be in place before being developed, or be one of the driving forces of getting the mainstream public demanding the infrastructure is put in place and clamouring to pay for it. I'm not sure, but the latter doesn't seem too unrealistic, especially with how mainstream console gaming has become in the last 10 years.

    Also, bear in mind BT holds the UK Onlive licence, they're going to want to do something with that before too long.



    :jawdrop:Wall of text (PS I'm in a boring meeting)
     
    Last edited: 17 Mar 2011
  16. Jedra

    Jedra Supermodel

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    It is the 'mess' what is the current infrastructure that makes me think that MS might at least partner with someone to build their own infrastructure. Supply will be dictated by demand but this often takes time - I think MS might start to do this themselves say 12 months before they are due to launch the console - the LIVE service becoming more of a 'whole solution' package. This may be an attractive business opportunity for them to tie people into Xbox perhaps?

    Alternatively they may see that infrastructure has so matured that they cannot do this. I do believe that the day of physical media is fast coming to an end and it will be here quicker than people expect.
     
  17. Hex

    Hex Paul?! Super Moderator

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    Saying you have to keep your old 360 as well as having the new console would lose them more sales than I would expect them to accept. The main reason people are still buying 360s over PS3s is for the catalogue of games. We've already seen loads of old games crop back up on XBLA and they play great on the 360, so I can't see why they wouldn't continue with this. But there will have to be a way of proving that you already bought some things.

    For really old games, fair enough they might expect you to pay again, but for titles that come out on the old platform shortly before the new one is released I would imagine there will be some way of linking them. People normally want to upgrade, they don't want to have 2 consoles taking up huge amounts of space by their TVs.
     
  18. Jedra

    Jedra Supermodel

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    I'm not sure what they will do. Although most console manufacturers make some attempt to make the consoles backward compatible, it's normally not well supported and then usually dropped. This happened with the 360, PS2 and PS3 - I had a healthy catalogue across all of these and was pretty much encouraged to start again - which I did! Most of the time an Xbox game in a 360 didn't look that great (especially compared to the new titles) same went for PS1 to PS2 to PS3.

    Personally I would rather see them not make it backwards compatible if this was going to compromise design. If they change architecture completely then unless they can run some kind of emulation then they might have to drop it. There is some interest in 'retro' gaming with both XBL and PSN at the moment, but I don't think it will be a deal clincher or breaker.

    I think as long as they get their marketing spot on, there will be enough clamour for the new system to not worry about back catalogues. They could always offer the old games to play for free to people who buy the system anyway (assuming it is technically possible) - this might be a good enough compromise.
     
  19. sausages

    sausages What's a Dremel?

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    I still call it a limit because a speed limit is still a limit. I do need to negotiate a better deal though. I'm out of my fixed contract now so I can threaten to leave if they don't improve things, and that seems to be the way you have to deal with these companies these days.
     
  20. Hex

    Hex Paul?! Super Moderator

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    As I've just got back into playing some PC games again I've only recently used the SteamCloud thing for screenshots. This is awesome and something the new console really should implement. No reason why you couldn't take a screenshot in the game and have it saved and then be able to upload to Facebook/Twitter/imgur/Picasa/Flickr/MScloud thingy and share with your friends.

    If they were really smart they'd have a way to record gameplay too. You'd go back to there needing to be a hard drive again, but have it save the game, optimized for uploading to youtube, or even their own gamervideo service. There's a huge demand for gameplay videos and the decent HD PVRs cost a fair bit. If they made this possible and easy to use, I think it would be a massive selling point.
     

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