E.U: Leave or Stay? Your thoughts.

Was that drop significant? It seems so low that it could just as easily be chalked up to normal fluctuations. Currency values don't stay still.

The telegraph article is funny. There are fundamental structural economic problems in Britain and Brexit will make that more difficult to fix. Businesses say they have to take new business models if cheaper labour dies away, which isn't necessarily bad. Of course he can't say that it is categorically good either. Business don't like to loose money, so if labour costs go up, that cost will get shifted elsewhere, like the consumer. So its not necessarily a bad thing for the businesses. On the plus side, the Brexiters gave politicians a kick up the arse. So it has all been worth it because voting them out isn't kicking them up the arse enough apparently. The last paragraph is wonderful as well. It has all the same catch phrases of the campaign, none of which were outlined or supported by anything in the article.

 

Citation needed please, i can't remember anything about the result plunging us into recession, although i do remember warnings that leaving would and so far, despite promises, we've not even started the process of leaving.

As Nexxo pointed out, all of the predictions were predicated on starting the process of leaving the EU immediately upon a vote to leave the EU, something that has since been reneged on.

 

But it's OK! We've got more control now because we gave the politicians more sovereignty. Or something.

 

Sorry, I wasn't clear. I meant the drop as a result of the article 50 rumour.

 

Indeed. And before it's brought up again: "World War III" was mentioned by Boris Johnson, not David Cameron. But BoJo is the king of straw man argument.

Well, the timing was bang-on. The Pound was just rallying by $0.01 after better than expected figures on consumer spending and employment, and then it dropped again just after the Article 50 date was postulated. Compare this to the 'Leadsome bounce' when the Pound rallied within minutes of it becoming known that Leadsome --who wanted to pull the trigger ASAP-- was withdrawing from the Tory leadership competition.

 

The argument matches that hair of his

 

Not that I've researched it myself but going on what the media were reporting it was, didn't they say it was the biggest drop in a single day for over 20 years or something.

Although thinking about it maybe that was because they were expecting Article 50 to be triggered in the next few hours/days and when it became clearer that wasn't going to be the case things calmed down a little.

EDIT: Looks like Murdoch is getting in early.

...

 

I was referring to the following:

rather than the post referendum result drop.

 

Do I really have to go back and quote you? and you deny that besides that it wasn't a common post referendum view that we were all f***ed because of the vote? I've seen the biggest change of narrative from remain going on as the death of the firstborn predictions because of uncertainty are unlikely to pan out it has become wait for article 50.

Read more carefully. "Retailers are licking their lips anticipating an olympic feelgood factor" and don't blame larry elliot, the line that good weather is responsible for the good things (and anything bad is brexit) is a remain narrative.

You mean £60bn. Where you get £300bn from i don't know.
Maybe you're adding up the cuts to capital buffers expected to increase lending by £100bn+ or maybe you're on about the £100bn term funding scheme to help banks adhere to the new bank rate. Not much of that is "new QE"

Sterling is an automatic stabiliser, we operate a free monetary policy, with floating exchange rates and free capital mobility. Which are all brilliant policies for dealing with asymmetric shocks like a brexit vote or article 50 for that matter. Besides that's the forex markets, the financial markets are equity and debt

Osborne's deficit targets being missed, well I never, never seen that before must be brexit.

When?

Et, tu nexxo

It was a pretty significant drop and was directly related. However people get confused by the idea that a "strong" or "weak" or "well performing" or "badly performing" being used in relation to currency value, high currency value isn't a good thing. We have a current account deficit of £100bn a level that is quite frankly scary and can't be continued forever. It means the country is borrowing or selling assets at an unprecedented peacetime rate. We will eventually have a large sudden currency correction to get this down much larger than the falls over the next 2 years. The BoE now expects the current account deficit to be halved in 2017.

All I have ever said about a devaluation in the pound is: GOOD

 

Yes you do because IIRC i said this...

So unless you're thinking of something else i believe I've made it perfectly clear that a lot of the doom saying was predicated on Mr Cameron triggering article 50 immediately, also that he'd remain PM but that's probably inconsequential.

You're also going to have to clarify your accusation against me that I'm "denying that besides that it wasn't a common post referendum view that we were all f***ed because of the vote" as not only does that sentence make little sense it also seems incorrect.

Hears the facts, all the doom 'n' gloom, or the death of the first born as you put it, was predicated on the UK government triggering Article 50 straight away, Mr Cameron said that "If the British people vote to leave, there is only one way to bring that about, namely to trigger article 50 of the treaties and begin the process of exit, and the British people would rightly expect that to start straight away."

WTF does retailers licking their lips anticipating an Olympic feelgood factor have to do with a jump in retail sale, I'm licking my lips and anticipating being a millionaire but as yet that's not effected my bank balance.

Carney Pledges $345 Billion to Fund First Line of Brexit Defense

And lets not forget the £60bn of UK government bonds and £10bn of corporate bonds just this month.

Hence why i said £200-600 million, £200 million based on the same time last year and £600 based on forecasts, besides are you seriously saying taking less money is a good indicator?

 

So now it's a lot of doom predicated on article 50 not explicitly predicated on triggering article 50 and not:

It seems pretty simple to me, are you denying that the hardline remainiac common veiw was that the brexit vote would lead to immediate and serious economic consequences?

That's not the impression any hardline remainer has given me or anyone else. It sounds like the narrative has somehow moved and become more specificly about doom predicated on article 50 ONLY whereas before it were it's going to be bad now never mind after article 50. It's not just you it's the entire remainiac narrative has moved now to a "you'll see when article 50 is triggered.... oh yes you'll see"

You tried saying what has the olympics got to do with the July figures when the games weren't starting till august and I was merely illustrating that some reading comprehension would have you see that the author was stating that the olympics feel good factor is prominent in retailers minds for August into September, so the trend will continue.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/aug/04/bank-of-england-cuts-uk-interest-rates

It's £60bn in QE and £10bn in corporate bonds. Aggregating mechanisms that have little to do with eachother is imprecise to say the least out of that $345bn of aggregated measures some is releasing bank capital to lend and a big chunk is to make sure the interest rate is passed on. All are very different and on different levels and functions in the monetary transmission mechanism.

And you think that hasn't happened before, if you follow the news on monthly deficit levels then you'll see that some months shock in their disappointment and some surprise for the good.

 

Sorry but what does something i said 5 days after the referendum have to do with the death of the firstborn predictions, or for that matter what does it have to do with the fact that Mr Cameron said he'd trigger Article 50 immediately?

You quote something from me that even says "things aren't that bad, yet" and that "The decline is going to be drawn out over many years IMO, what we've seen so far is just the start of that decline, we won't know the full effect for another 5+ years, at least that's my opinion."

Did you just miss the part where i said we won't know the full effect for another 5+ years? You do know we're just 3 odd months from the referendum result, right? You do know we've not triggered Article 50 yet, right?

No it doesn't, it makes about as much sense of the rest of your posts, I mean WTF does "denying that besides that it wasn't a common post referendum view that we were all f***ed because of the vote"

I'm going to take a guess what you meant to say was, are you denying that it wasn't a common post referendum view that we were all f***ed because of the vote, if that's what you intended to say then the answer would be no, because 5 days after the result we had no idea if or even when Article 50 would be triggered, the were all f***ed view wasn't based on result but on the expected triggering of Article 50.

So let me get this right, you quote a section from me saying...

And you're saying it's not clear that we won't know the full effect for another 5+ years, I mean it doesn't even mention the vote or Article 50, it seem you're saying everyone (read me) were saying it's all going to be doom 'n' gloom despite everyone being told the British people would rightly expect [Article 50] to start straight away.

You don't need reading comprehension to know a feel good factor isn't going to effect sales figures some 4-5 weeks before an event, its got nothing to do with trends, the author makes no mention of trends, all he tries to do is draw some tenuous link between retail sales figures and an event that was underway when he wrote the article.

If you'd bothered to delve a little deeper you'd see the retail sales figures had nothing to do with a feel good factor but more to do with the drop in the pound, the ONS statistics showed it had attracted tourists on shopping sprees for luxury goods. Sales of watches and jewellery were up 16.6% on the year, and that sales of clothing and footwear done particularly well.

So your answer is to quote back to me the same numbers i gave you but from a different site?

Either way that's a long, long way from what that article you agreed with said, that "The financial markets are serene" If anything everything you describe shows they're far from serene, if £60bn in QE and £10bn in corporate bonds, and releasing bank capital to lend is a serene financial market then I'd hate to see what one in turmoil looks like.

No, i think you're putting words into my mouth, i never said it hasn't happened before, i said what i said, make of it what you will.

 

Given that Cameron was going to trigger Article 50 immediately. Which he didn't.

Which Johnson then said he wasn't going to either (before Gove scuppered his contention for the throne), Gove then said he wasn't going to (assuming he won the leadership election instead), and David Davis isn't going to now he is in charge of it. Nope, instead we get a lot of displacement activity in Fox and Johnson having their little turf war. I think that you should reflect on why that might be.

But hey, I hope you're right, given that my economic future is tied up with that of the UK.

 

What does Brexit mean again? When will Article 50 be triggered? Backpedaling (get the spelling right, it's your native tongue ) indeed.

But as you say, let's be constructive: what would you like Brexit to be, realistically?

 

It was a meme I chose to use not one I created Nexxo if you want to go all Grammar Nazi over it

Remain had their day with their predictions, warnings and doomsayings yet the majority of the British public, albeit a small majority, voted leave despite that. You should learn to accept defeat gracefully and start discussing the best way forward post referendum instead of the incessant negativity or you become part of the problem too!

As the great Lao Tzu said:

Life is a series of natural and spontaneous changes. Don't resist them - that only creates sorrow. Let reality be reality. Let things flow naturally forward in whatever way they like.

I think you are eager to see Brexit result in economic woes for the UK, just so you can bask in your own egotistical stance that you were "right all along", while you bail out to wherever it is you choose, be it the Netherlands or the South of France, you can feel all superior in the knowledge that you "told us so". It's kind of boring now. Bon Voyage to you, I'm sure we'll muddle through!!

 

It means leaving the EU as a political block and subsequently no longer being part of an organisation called the EU

 

Tell me who made it! Tell me now, so I can lambast them for their poor command of the English language!

And on that note, please tell me what you think would be the best way forward post referendum.

 

And on that note why don't you tell us what, if accepting the result, and we are leaving the EU as an organisation what is the best way forward, in your opinion?

(you know, maybe consider from that perspective)

 

It means Brexit!...duh!