Bit-Tech Brexit Poll

That seems a good excuse to raise a question I've been wanting to ask.

Are the polls going to effect how, or if people are going to vote?
We saw something similar in the last GE where one side had a lead in the pols but come result time we saw the polls got it very wrong, some people have attributed how people voted on the polls, that they saw the polls showed one side in the lead and voted accordingly.

Could leave being ahead in the polls result in more undecided, swing, apathetic voters bothering to turn out come voting day to support the other side?

 

I've said it loads of times during the last few months: people aren't voting leave based on politics or any real understanding of the issues. They're basing their vote on some jingoistic, xenophobic belief that we should get out of Europe because the EU is full of foreigners, and they're all coming over here taking our jobs and our benefits.

It's got to the point where I turn off the news when anything about the referendum comes on.

If the Leave lot win and Trump wins in the US, I believe those are the first two signs of the end of days

 

I said/thought the same thing a while back,


My mum says she's seen the same view elsewhere and that disliking cameron is the worst reason to vote out for (as nexxo points out).

That's why my Grandparents are voting out, . They apparently think that we'll get out, current gov will be kicked out and labour will come in and make everything superb (overnight probably). All these old people voting leave probably voted to get us in the EU in the first place .

 

What they, we, I voted for then bears no resemblance to what we have now. Also with it being one of the most corrupt organisations on the planet I can see no reason to remain in it.

 

Just because one choice seems poor, doesn't mean the alternative will de facto be better.

 

I'd like to see some evidence to support that

 

A quick Google.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26014387

 

So those 10 general elections we've had since that initial referendum gave you no choices in the role you wanted the UK to take in Europe?

 

One bleary-eyed morning a month ago or so I heard a point made on Radio 4 which has rung true every time this has come up.

Older, more conservative (and by that I don't necessarily mean "more Tory") voters who were around for the referendum on joining the EU are this time more likely to vote leave, because what the EU has become was not what was advertised back in the 70s. Whereas younger generations who have grown up with Britain being part of the EU are far more likely to vote remain because of all the benefit they've gained from it.

The Tories were by far the biggest proponents of the EU in the 70s because of all the new trade opportunities, whereas Labour/liberal/socialist parties were against it, largely because of the threats to British workers. See Margaret Thatcher's EU jumper:



One of the reasons that's flipped around is because as well as trade opportunities and the free movement of goods/services/workers, the EU has also brought a hell of a lot of benefits to working people - holiday time, maternity/paternity leave, caps on working hours, caps on "double-back" shifts, etc - and has many rules and regulations about corporate power & monopolies. These things apparently impede "business"...

It's also no surprise that the vast majority of print media clamouring for us to be out of the EU is owned by a handful of billionaires, billionaires who do not live in this country and do not pay a fair amount of tax: Rupert Murdoch, Lord Rothmere, and the Barclay brothers. Now, what upcoming political thing could these people take advantage of in order to reduce the number of fingers in our tax law pie... I wonder...

In case it wasn't obvious, I'm voting remain . If I ever do have children then I have to consider what kind of place I want to bring them up in. As time goes by, Britain is moving closer and closer to being a place where I do not want to live. The EU was founded after WWII, specifically to bring people together and put an end to wars & conflict:

If this country makes the short-sighted and misguided decision to leave the EU then I am going to give strong consideration to emigrating; that might just be the straw that breaks this camel's back.

 

@kronos: That article is talking about corruption in EU countries i.e. in local governments, bribes paid to local officials etc. It's not talking about the European Parliament being corrupt. Even then another quick google would suggest that the GDP of the European Union is €14.3 trillion so that figure of €120 billion is only 0.8%. Even if the European Parliament was corrupt to that extent do you think we'd have more of a say in making it less corrupt as (a) a part of it or (b) a voice shouting 'from the sidelines'.

 

Remain, in, whatever you want to call it.

Anything else is insane jingoism.

 

Absolutely. Some Brexiteers claim that leaving the EU would free Britain to do wonderful things: to deregulate and unleash the magic of markets, leading to explosive growth. Sorry, but that’s just voodoo wrapped in a Union Jack; it’s the same free-market fantasy that has always and everywhere proved delusional.

 

Less than a week to go and this poll's looking pretty conclusive - it must be the case that Brexit voters just haven't visited this thread.

Having spoken to a few people who have already voted by post, I'm surprised that there is a majority of Brexiters among them. It's exactly a week since I posted the betting odds on the ref:

It's shifted somewhat to 4/9 for remain vs 7/4 for leave, but still favouring remain as the likely result. Isn't that interesting, considering what we've been hearing in the news about this big shift in support for Brexit?

 

I think it's probably the case that the Bremainers just aren't as vocal as the Brexiters

 

As I said earlier - I got the impression that support for Leave is waning, but they're trying to spin it as the exact opposite.

It all seems a bit desperate to me.

Still, not long until the vote, and perhaps the eventual decline of use of the word "Brexit". Whomever coined that term should be taken out and given a severe beating.

 

I've read online and phone polls tend to differ, IIRC they said phone polls tend to favor remain and are more accurate, while *online polls tend to favor leave but are less reliable, either way it's probably going to a close results.

Why anyone is surprised, or even takes note of *online polls is beyond me, you only have to spend a few minutes reading social media and comments left on major newspapers articles to see the amount of vitriol being spouted.

*Online polls where anonymity affords some protection in the way an online forum poll like BT's doesn't (if that makes sense)

I wouldn't put too much faith in the bookies either as their odds reflect where people are placing their money, among other things.

 

I don't know much about odds but they are focusing on the two possible outcomes of the same event but they don't appear to add up to 1. Probably down to the house always win, but it still seems weird to me.

 

Feeling blue?
Left out?
Bored?
Don't have anything constructive to contribute?

Just Godwin a thread and all will be well.

 

Chances are its fake anyway. I don't think they had the technology to do fancy rendered overlays with transparency effects in the 30s or 40s.