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View Poll Results: Should we be EU members?
In 105 64.02%
Out 44 26.83%
Shake it all about 15 9.15%
Voters: 164. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 25th Jun 2016, 10:35   #161
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People like to miss read what that means by the Bank of England. £250billion is what's available from them, what it does not mean is that we have already given it away.

It's literally there incase it's needed. The same thing the other big banks did yesterday. It's a way to calm the Markets and stop us seeing another major global recession.

All UK banks are stress tested at this point on worse day 1 drops than even the start of Yesterday morning.
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Old 25th Jun 2016, 11:03   #162
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Quote:
Originally Posted by faugusztin View Post
Trade deal with EU is part of Article 50 process.
No, it's really not.
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A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
Article 50 only deals with the arrangements for withdrawing from the EU, it sets in motion the negotiations on the withdrawal agreement, on the how to withdraw, how and when the treaties are no longer going to apply, it's the unpicking of the constitutional entanglement, that does include a framework for the future relationship with the Union but that's only on a constitutional basis.

Quote:
Originally Posted by faugusztin View Post
Exit of UK from EU means rewriting the trade deals, and they depend on the path UK wants to go. Going from EU to EEA is a completely different process than going from EU to no deal, or going from EU to customs union. So yes, trade deals are part of the Article 50 process. Unless you want to drop back to having no deals and lot of customs fees (WTO rules).
No it doesn't, Article 50 just starts the process of setting out a framework for the future relationship, that doesn't allow you to rewrite a trade deal, all it does is set out if you want to remain in the EEA, EFTA, or go all the way out.

Quote:
Originally Posted by faugusztin View Post
And UK has 2 years for all that; if there is no trade deal at 2 year mark, then UK will start to trade with EU using WTO rules (and that will hurt).

And finally, from economic perspective, every option is worse than being a member of EU. EEA option will include free movement, and every other option will kill huge part financial industry in London (they will have to move to Germany or France).
Maybe we're at cross purposes, we can't make any trade deal all we can do is decide on the a framework for the future relations, now that will probably contain things like if we want to be members of the EEA, EFTA, or none, but those choices don't come with wiggle room, their preset choices, we don't get to negotiate the actual terms of those deals just if we or they want to offer us membership.
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Old 25th Jun 2016, 11:17   #163
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Ok, let me explain it to you in other way.

UK starts the Article 50 process. That starts the 2 year clock. Once 2 year passes, UK is out of EU. If you are out of EU, then the EU trade rules do not apply to UK anymore. If UK has no special trade deal in place by the 2 year mark, then then all trade relations between UK and EU are governed by WTO rules.

Your own link says so :
Quote:
A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.
The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.
And what is that treaty ? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty...European_Union
And that treaty includes customs union and other trade stuff. So if you leave EU, Treaty on functoning of EU do not appply to UK anymore, thus you have no trade treaty with EU anymore. Thus WTO rules apply.

Edit: And finally - EEA comes with some wiggle room, but not in the areas the main topics of referendum were about (free movement is not negotiable). And it takes time to settle that wiggle room. And again, once the 2 year mark passes and UK doesn't have a treaty with EU about the instant switch to EEA membership, then UK has no trade treaty with EU, because the previous one was part of the EU treaty UK just left.

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Old 25th Jun 2016, 12:00   #164
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If the City of London loses some bankers would anyone give a damn? From those that voted leave. Can not say they would.

City of London trades more in $ than any other currency. Its the largest trader of $ in the world is a crazy fact. We have as of March this year 45% of all trading done in the world through the City of London.

Likely hood is with us out of the EU trade will increase, As regulations that the EU forces onto us will no longer apply. Bonuses are currently capped , Financial Transaction Tax is something Germany would like to force onto us.

We export around 1.1pc of gdp in finacial services to the EU, We export alot more than that to the rest of the world.

Same fear mongering was said in the late 90s with us not joining the Euro the city would suffer, It became the biggest and most important trade centre in the world.

If trade does leave the City it will not be to europe as some remain campaigners said it will be back to New York City, Hong Kong or Singapore.

Lets be blunt, All 27 member states could not agree on how to run a coffee morning let alone how to organise a trade deal. Germany and France will take the lead and everyone else will follow there instructions or face the consequences.

Germany is the self presevation capital of the world, Theres no way they will risk there main export by allowing each individual member state a chance to screw it up.
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Old 25th Jun 2016, 12:29   #165
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nexxo View Post
Basically UKIP cleverly linked people's discontent caused by Austerity to the idea of unchecked EU immigration, conflating it neatly with non-EU immigration and refugees and other assorted darkies with their strange ways and their strange food (except when it comes in takeaway boxes, then it's fine). People basically voted to get the Muzzies out or because Poles were taking their jobs, housing and women (or, more accurately, doing their jobs, housing and women and annoyingly doing it better).
This.

There is no possible way that any of the Leave campaign leaders - not just Farage - could have been ignorant of the fact that access to the single market requires the free movement of labour, and that we already have the power to control non-EU migration. It didn't take long for the backpedalling to start on the immigration rhetoric, did it?

In case it's not yet abundantly clear: if you voted Leave you've been had. You've been well and truly duped by career politicians who care not a jot about your welfare. All the things that have been done to you in the past several decades - austerity, funding cuts, lack of investment, lack of support, etc - by successive governments have been used to further their own agenda and the agenda of their paymasters. They have taken your disenfranchisement and turned it towards their own goals.

If you can't already see that then I pity you; there's a very high likelihood that we're going to get ****ed even harder in the coming years, and there's a very good chance that they'll pull the same old trick on you again in years to come. If not the EU or immigrants then they'll invent some other fictitious bogeyman and you'll believe them all over again.
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Old 25th Jun 2016, 12:44   #166
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Quote:
Originally Posted by faugusztin View Post
Ok, let me explain it to you in other way.

UK starts the Article 50 process. That starts the 2 year clock. Once 2 year passes, UK is out of EU. If you are out of EU, then the EU trade rules do not apply to UK anymore. If UK has no special trade deal in place by the 2 year mark, then then all trade relations between UK and EU are governed by WTO rules.
So we were at cross purposes.

Once the UK starts Article 50 we start the negotiating on what framework we want our exit to to take, what parts they and we agree to keep and what parts we and they agree to discard.

Yes that can included being a member of the EEA, EFTA, etc, etc, but that doesn't mean negotiating the terms of EEA, EFTA membership as the negotiating of those terms would start after Article 50 has been concluded, Article 50 negotiations basically set out how and what happens after leaving the EU.
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Old 25th Jun 2016, 12:49   #167
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Originally Posted by Corky42 View Post
Article 50 negotiations basically set out how and what happens after leaving the EU.
But the end of Article 50 negotiations is that you are out of EU, you are out of single market, none of the EU articles apply to EU-UK trade. So yes, you have to work out your trade relationship within that discussion. There is not going to be some "grace period" between end of Article 50 negotiation (aka stopping participating in Treaty of EU) and maybe joining EEA sometime later.

So while technically yes, trade negotiations are not part of Article 50 discussion, UK would be stupid not to do it inside that period. And good luck achieving that.
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Old 25th Jun 2016, 13:29   #168
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My understanding is you'd only be out of the single market if you didn't negotiate continued membership of that during the Article 50 negotiations, we could dump everything and negotiate terms for reentry or we could ask for continued membership of the single market.

Obviously if the UK asked to remain a member of the single market as part of the Article 50 negotiations the terms of remaining a member of the single market wouldn't be part of the Article 50 talks, they could, if they wanted, depend on single market rules immediately upon exiting the EU but it would be the default rules.

At least that's how i understand things.
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Old 25th Jun 2016, 14:33   #169
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In case it's not yet abundantly clear: if you voted Leave you've been had. You've been well and truly duped by career politicians who care not a jot about your welfare. All the things that have been done to you in the past several decades - austerity, funding cuts, lack of investment, lack of support, etc - by successive governments have been used to further their own agenda and the agenda of their paymasters. They have taken your disenfranchisement and turned it towards their own goals.

If you can't already see that then I pity you; there's a very high likelihood that we're going to get ****ed even harder in the coming years, and there's a very good chance that they'll pull the same old trick on you again in years to come. If not the EU or immigrants then they'll invent some other fictitious bogeyman and you'll believe them all over again.
The thing is: they can't see it. Even when Farage was denying the £350m --> NHS claim, people were defending him and accusing the ITV interviewer of being rude. Even when Hannah was stating that immigration would effectively carry on unchanged, people were talking about how good it was that DEMOCRACY and SOVEREIGNTY (in caps) was restored, because now we have CONTROL ( ). They just have a massive blind spot.

This means that the Brexiteers can spin it whichever way they want and do whatever they want and the electorate is going to swallow it whole as a Good Thing.



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Old 25th Jun 2016, 15:08   #170
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nexxo View Post
Even when Hannah was stating that immigration would effectively carry on unchanged, people were talking about how good it was that DEMOCRACY and SOVEREIGNTY (in caps) was restored, because now we have CONTROL ( ). They just have a massive blind spot.
It's going to take a good few years before people realise they've been sold a pup, it's going to take a few years to realise they have no more or maybe less DEMOCRACY and SOVEREIGNTY.

Basically it's going to take years for people to work out the Jam tomorrow promise was just a pipe dream.
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Old 25th Jun 2016, 15:13   #171
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When you say "a few years" are you referring to how long it will take before the facts become apparent, or their thinking speed?
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Old 25th Jun 2016, 15:26   #172
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nexxo View Post
"My God, it's full of retard!"
For someone who puts a great deal of thought and effort into debate, you continually undermine your own credibility:

One minute you're saying people were taken in by clever and deceptive Leave campaign propaganda, and then you're just declaring them all retards.

It's wearing a bit thin now, tbh.
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Old 25th Jun 2016, 16:26   #173
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Both things can be true at the same time.

I mean, how hard was it to spot the propaganda? It was not as if it wasn't glaringly blatant. It was almost parodic in its extremity. Only people with a severe deficit in rational thinking ability would fall for it. And fall for it they did. So yeah, sorry if my respect for people has taken a nose dive a bit. I'm sure that like the pound, it will eventually recover. Maybe.
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Old 25th Jun 2016, 17:18   #174
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and there you go again.

/abandon thread
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Old 25th Jun 2016, 17:18   #175
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Spreadie View Post
For someone who puts a great deal of thought and effort into debate, you continually undermine your own credibility:

One minute you're saying people were taken in by clever and deceptive Leave campaign propaganda, and then you're just declaring them all retards.

It's wearing a bit thin now, tbh.
+1

Nex, can I further add that geographically the areas affected over the years by the closure of various industries which caused wholesale unemployment are those areas which proportionally voted to leave.

It's not that I believe in any shape, form or manner that they are the under educated poor elements of society who were swayed by political idiots and propaganda - I believe that after the years of hardship they and their families have endured they decided to have their say in a democratic society.

As a so called Socialist I thought you might appreciate that sentiment.
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Old 25th Jun 2016, 17:19   #176
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nexxo View Post
Both things can be true at the same time.

I mean, how hard was it to spot the propaganda? It was not as if it wasn't glaringly blatant. It was almost parodic in its extremity. Only people with a severe deficit in rational thinking ability would fall for it. And fall for it they did. So yeah, sorry if my respect for people has taken a nose dive a bit. I'm sure that like the pound, it will eventually recover. Maybe.
Despite the risk of this turning into an echo chamber, Nexxo is right. If you couldn't see through the veil of lies that the Leave campaign was spreading even when they all but admitted it, then your choice is not worthy of my respect.

The "£350m to the NHS" claim was plastered on the side of their god-damned bus! They admitted that it was misleading because it's the gross figure, not the net, and then after the vote Farage has the audacity to try and claim that they never said they'd spend the EU fees on the NHS instead!!

Look! Here it is ffs! "We send the EU £350 million a week - let's fund our NHS instead"



This is before we even start to look at what we get for the membership fees. I am so unbelievably angry that Wales overwhelmingly voted Leave, when Wales has been one the biggest recipients of EU support in the entire UK! People drive past so many signs emblazoned with "EU REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT FUND" on a day-to-day basis and they don't even realise. That wonderful new metro system for South Wales, you know the one that planned to make it easier for people to get into the more urban areas like Cardiff and Newport where you've got a better chance of getting a job and don't have to worry about the M4 bottleneck? Well you can kiss that goodbye because the government needed to get EU funding to contribute towards the cost. The £4 billion in funding that Wales has received from the EU in the last 16 years? Yeah, that'll go away too; can Westminster meet that same level of funding? Yes, probably, if they utterly slash budgets elsewhere, like local councils and the NHS.

To say that I currently have little faith in the ability for people think clearly and rationally is the mother of all understatements. And in case it wasn't entirely apparent, yes, I am extremely pissed off. I was pissed off last year when, on the back of 5 years worth of Tory-led austerity and cuts, we voted in the Tories again to carry on their savage agenda against the poor and working people of this country. I'm pissed off with decision of Leave voters to buy into the same god damned lies that they've been fed for decades.

I'm sure my opinion will soften in time, but right now I am extremely pissed off.
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Old 25th Jun 2016, 17:47   #177
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Spreadie View Post
For someone who puts a great deal of thought and effort into debate, you continually undermine your own credibility:

One minute you're saying people were taken in by clever and deceptive Leave campaign propaganda, and then you're just declaring them all retards.

It's wearing a bit thin now, tbh.
+1

I'm with Spreadie with regards to your posts/position in this thread Nexxo, tend to think you're on point and articulate and polite etc, but you've often come across a bit condescending and rude, neither of which help anything.

The decision has been made (which was a complete shock for me I might add) and so now it's best to focus on what might happen now, no need for name calling, that doesn't help anything nor will it encourage people who voted leave for possibly the wrong reasons to reconsider their choice.
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Old 25th Jun 2016, 18:26   #178
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That bus thing is beautifully crafted. Reading it implies that you would send the EU money to the NHS. In reality it makes no commitment as to what should be done with the money and instead merely supports funding the NHS (which Britain does anyway). It is basically two separate and unrelated sentences in one.

The way it is structured allows them to claim ownership if the money does go to the NHS and if nothing goes to the NHS it allows them to deny saying that there was any commitments made to the NHS.
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Old 25th Jun 2016, 18:38   #179
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Quote:
Originally Posted by theshadow2001 View Post
That bus thing is beautifully crafted.
It's crafted to be deceptive and it worked - people bought it.
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Old 25th Jun 2016, 18:41   #180
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Barack Obama said something that the leave campaign has used alot and it is a harsh fact.

The freer international flow of goods and people has the possibility of extraordinary benefits, Obama says. But he admits the gains are not evenly shared.

Globalisation has become the big thing. Not everyone is recieving its benefits in equal measure is a fact. Compare the wages in a city like London to those up north doing the same job.

Someone else said something pretty fitting, The Haves voted remain, The Have nots voted leave. UK has a massive Rich / Poor Divide these days.

The North South divide is the term thats used, Its never been wider than it is this year.

Trump is wininng an election based on deception and words, Problem is the American Rich and Elite are still ignoring him and spouting nonesence, The non elite do not care that he might not be spouting the truth. They care he might make a change if thats better or worse they are willing to take a risk.

Leave is a Risk vote for many it was better than doing nothing.
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