E.U: Leave or Stay? Your thoughts.

So while I was gone every alternative to the WA got rejected plus he WA itself got rejected a third time as not even the retirement of the Maybot could get it over the line...

And no one has any clue what will happen next, except that MV4 is inevitable.
What will May offer to sweeten the deal with that one? The disbanding of both Labour and Conservative parties? lol.

 

Yes every alternative was rejected but that's indicative voting. They're back on Monday.

A 2nd referendum (based on May's deal being passed) got the most votes and a Customs Union was only 5 votes (iirc) short of getting a majority. There are possibilities.

Those will be reduced. No deal and a 'managed' no deal were heavily rejected so I think they're done.

Oh and the DUP are now saying they'll stay in the EU if it means keeping the Union. That's a thing.

 

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Looks like BlueKip are trying to further take over the Tories from within again.

 

Not like Momentum haven't been doing that since Jeremy Corbyn came to power, attempting to remove moderate centre-left candidates/MPs in favour of hard-left people. That is not why I donated to Momentum, that is not why I joined Labour, and that is why I don't belong to either of them any more.

 

I did. To be fair, I don't think anyone could have seen the current turn of events coming. Still think the odds for accidental crash-out are high though. But if we're queueing up at the poll booth for EU elections on 23rd May I will be laughing my ass off (quietly, because I don't want the natives to lynch me ).

He can always join Change UK*.

* Name unconfirmed due to litigation by Change.org. Name may vary. Other parties are available.

 

I don't really get it though:
Ok say on Monday they try to narrow it down ( which would lead to a showdown between the two "favourites" Customs Union / 2nd ref)

Customs Union would change PD about future relationship but leaves the thrice defeated WA untouched.
2nd ref would also lead to problems, first of all the chance of May accepting it is practically zero, plus they would then have to agree what the alternative in that 2nd ref would be and given that they overwhelmingly reject both No deal and Remain...

So lets say instead they have a three way run-off between May WA / CU / 2nd ref and then pinky promise to pass the one that comes out on top, well no, that wouldn't work either... since they can't compel themselves to vote a specific way in the future when it actually counts (much less bind a future parliament and given the current mess a future parliament is set to turn up sooner rather than later).

 

Going on the tweet RedFlames posted about some MPs needing a tutorial scheduled on what the customs union is i don't think they get it either, i know we've had enough of experts and opinions trump facts and evidence but you'd expect the people we pay to dedicate their time to the issues of statecraft to understand the basics.

 

Nadine Dorries didn't know what a CU was, only that she was against it. Karen Bradley, NI Secretary, didn't realise people there vote along partisan lines --something I already knew when I was a teenager growing up in the Netherlands. Raab, when Brexit Secretary, didn't read the GFA, basically didn't realise the UK was an island.

They're making it up as they go along. They only manage to get elected because the average voter can barely articulate a coherent thought, and makes them look bright by comparison.

I'm now at:



Whateverz.

 

Oh it's not straightforward, I grant you

The only remote chance I see of May going 2nd ref is if it's her WA up against Remain.

Some may say "but that's not Brexit" but then BoJo and Raab (amongst others) did a complete about face and those Brexiters found the 'deal' a choice they would take so it would be valid.

There are huge numbers of permutations, options aren't mutually exclusive either.

Personally, i'm quite hopeful.

 

Politicians have been making far too much of that.

I mean the UK's long term future is more important than whether we're in European elections or not.

I think other EU nations will more concerned, what with populist parties rumbling in many. Although hopefully our farce will help put a lid on those (or maybe it will do the opposite )

 

The only reason they're against holding European elections is because it will be seen as the death knell of Brexit, they've always thought about how things look to the electorate and even when the UK is circling the drain all they can think about is their image.

 

The dilemma for government is this: does it respect the democratic decision by the electorate, or does it protect the economy from getting trashed? It's kind of tricky when the electorate voted Leave in the expectation that it would end Austerity, not make it worse.

A choice has to be made. I suspect Parliament and cabinet will choose to "respect the democratic decision". Because that is the side their bread is buttered on. As Corky42 says: optics are everything. They can always deal with a trashed economy later; that doesn't in itself put them out of a job. In fact some think that, if played right; it will secure their job for years to come. They'll just do some cognitive dissonance reduction and tell themselves that it will all work out; that it is an "opportunity" for a new economic strategy and the UK reinventing itself.

The UK will leave. There is no going back on that.

 

It's sort of funny though how some MPs courted the far-right in their quest for power and now those same MPs are running scared of the very same people they courted.

 

I think it's brave to rule anything out.

It's a bit like saying we'd definitelty leave on the 29th

 

While that would get the support of SNP / Greens / Lib Dems / Watever they call themselves today / independents (and possibly even the DUP) the problem will be Labour... because as things stand Corbyn doesn't want to let a chance go by to inflict his flavour of Brexshit on the nation, so we can expect him to get out the heaviest of whips against remain being on a ballot, insisting instead that a Labour Brexit is put there, but that will instantly send the Tories and DUP flying off the handle.

And with no deal being the only alternative on the leave side (which doesn't have a majority on either side) they wouldn't be just up excrement creak without a paddle but instead enter a veritable faeces Valhalla...

Now adding the Customs Union option to the ballot would get around that, but that comes with another problem:
There are only two Customs Unions with the EU available, one comes with the Single Market (and the four freedoms they are so desperate to kill), or through EFTA / EEA membership, but that got a whopping *checks list* 65 Ayes, so is deader than a goldfish in an Exxon lab accident.
(any other Customs Union would take years to negotiate)

So we are right back down to no deal as the only alternative on the leave side and remain on the well remain side.

I just can't see Labour putting remain on a ballot, I mean can you imagine how awkward it would be if Remain won, then Corbyn gets into power at some point and triggers Art 50 after May had revoked it and approaches the EU asking for them to treat him nicely in negotiations?

 

Yup it's an unholy mess, even if they were to go against what they voted on and go for a no deal.

Trouble is what the people wanting a no deal forget to mention is that to then get to the trade talking table the EU have said that the UK would need to pay monies owed, guarantee citizens rights and provide a backstop plan...

You know all the things we've been discussing for the past 2 years

Yeah, it's a ride.

Somebody is going to have to swallow awkward and deal with the reality.

And this is the 'easy' bit!

 

And the way things are going enough people would probably vote for no deal out of frustration just to stick it to the Maybot and since it would be stupidly damaging to the economy neither party could make the first move towards actually implementing no deal (as it would be political suicide).

"easy" bit indeed

 

Pleasant bunch, the Brexit protesters.

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Welcome to a little slice of what NI has to put up with every July

 

I dunno, 2 years of being vilified for committing wrong-think by overly virtuous remainers and you'd be a bit pissed off as well.