News AMD shares slide on poor 4Q2018 outlook

Read more

 

I have nothing to add, I just wanted to point out how the article headline crops in the forum front page.

 

Nvidia hasn't published its third-quarter earnings; its last report was 2Q2019 (its financial year is one year ahead of everybody else's, 'cos Speshul) in August, which was reported right here including the news that 'Investors, though, appear unimpressed: Nvidia's share price has slipped 3.51 percent in pre-market trading, after dipping as low as six percent below market close, on release of the earnings, thanks largely to lower-than-expected projections for its third quarter revenue.'

But sure, it's a conspiracy against AMD. Let's go with that. I await my cheque from Intel/Nvidia/George Soros/The Moomins for my part in it.

 

Except the current bearish market has no direct impact on what just happened to AMD's stock. Here, let's use some pictures, starting with Nvidia's share price over the last five days.



Sure enough, there's a downward trend there, from $231.10 at the start of the chart to $198.29 - representing a pretty steady loss over the period of, what, 14%?

Now let's look at AMD for the same period:



Isn't that interesting: they're not the same shape at all. See that massive cliff edge it fell off? That'd be the earnings call. Not the "bearish market," which makes a shape like Nvidia's graph: the earnings call. Sure, maybe it was made worse by the current state of the market - but AMD had actually, as the graph shows, been riding the market quite well up until that point.

Over the same five-day period, AMD lost 28% of its value. That's double what Nvidia lost in the same market, and damn near the entirety of that loss occurred right after the earnings call. What conclusion can we draw from this? Well, we can draw the conclusion that the losses were caused by news presented in the earnings call - just like the article says. No conspiracy, no "hurr durr AMD bad" (I don't own a single Nvidia product since selling my 9800GT, and my desktop is and has been for the past five years an AMD A10-5800K), just accurate, factual reportage. Want my next report on AMD's earnings to not end with "holy crap did the stock take a massive boom-boom?" Arrange for AMD's graph to look more like Nvidia's graph.

This guy gets it.

This guy still doesn't.

As for why no sites have reported on Nvidia's share price dropping as part of a bear market, they have - the financial ones. Do you really want my three articles a day to be nothing but "Intel share price rises 10% on no news", "AMD share price drops 5% on no news," "Nvidia share price stable?" 'cos if you do, please do let @Dogbert666 know - that'd be so much easier than what I do now. (Hell, I could write a shell script to do it for me!)

I'll report on what Nvidia's share price does following its earnings call following its earnings call, just like AMD.

 

I was originally responding to this, you'll recall:

As the graphs show, Nvidia's stock did not "tank at the same time" - nor anything like it. That is, quite simply, false. (Yes, I'm aware that you didn't claim that, but if we're talking about the need to contextualise things let's contextualise how this very discussion began and how it was framed.)

I also disagree that the market is bearish for all tech companies, as you've claimed. Let's turn to pretty pictures again:



That's a five-day chart for Intel. It's higher now than it started - and we're talking AMD's biggest competition, now that it seems to have largely given up on the highest end of the graphics market. Strange that the company you'd most directly compare AMD hasn't seen the same market effects.



Tesla.



Apple - volatile graph, but it's actually bouncing in low-single-digit-percentages. That sounds pretty stable t'me.



Alphabet.



Microsoft. Note that it went up while AMD was going down. Also note that you could pretty much overlay it on the Alphabet chart and easily forget which is which - now there's an indication of what the underlying market is actually doing, without input from the respective companies.



Hitachi - slight slide, but nothing like what we've seen in AMD.



Panasonic.



JD.com - again, it's low, but by single-digit percentages.



HP, Inc. Less than five percent down on the five-day period we're measuring.



Oracle.

So, if we're looking at an anti-tech market, how do we explain those graphs? Sure, there are plenty of tech stocks that are down significantly on a five-day graph - but, as you can see, plenty that aren't. Not small ones, either.

I entirely stand by my article: AMD's share price did, indeed, slide significantly and completely beyond current market trends on the issuance of its latest quarterly report. That is not a "the sky is falling" article, that is wholly accurate reportage. Hell, I even contextualised it by pointing out that the drop, while massive, failed to wipe out the company's 52-week gains - i.e. it's still worth more now than it was a year ago, which is hardly bad news.

 

Ahem:

Those don't seem to have any qualifications to them that I can see. As I say, the market certainly isn't crap or bearish for Intel, AMD's main competitor - perhaps I should edit the article to add contextualisation that points out how much Intel gained while AMD was slipping 28 percent?

(I won't, obviously, for the same reason I didn't mention how much Nvidia had lost in the same period - it's irrelevant to the central point, which is that AMD issued an earnings call and a bunch of investors sold.)

 

I agree that some tech stocks are behaving in a bearish fashion, but that others are stable while still more are behaving in a bullish fashion. Nvidia is behaving bearishly; Intel is behaving bullishly, despite still releasing parts which are affected by the Spectre/Meltdown vulnerabilities and being excoriated for it, still not having a permanent chief executive, still having its former chief executive, allegedly sacked for dipping his pen in the company ink, under investigation for insider trading, being four years late to its 10nm platform, currently battling rumours that it has cancelled its 10nm platform altogether 'cos shrinking is hard let's go shopping, hitting issues with meeting demand that are leaving some customers with no choice but to buy AMD parts instead...

There's been more bad news out of Intel lately than there has out of AMD, prior to the "yeah, we're not going to hit our targets" filing on which this article reports, yet its stock price is sitting pretty.

I'm not saying I can't see where you're coming from with regards to mentioning that the market conditions are being unfavourable to some technology companies, but I do take offence to your claim that "it does raise some questions if sites write about the drop in AMD stock without pointing out that the currently bearish market will have reacted to the negative AMD news in an exaggerated fashion" - in case you were wondering why I'm arguing my point so vociferously.

Please do clarify exactly what those questions might be, and perhaps we'll get to the root of the matter.

 

That's not a question. Sure, there's a question mark at the end, but that's a statement (and an untrue one at that.)

I'm asking you what questions you feel have been raised by my article. Have the courage of your convictions, man: stop being implicit and start being explicit. What questions, exactly, have been raised in your mind?