"I don't give Charlie that much credibility" ...in you're own biased way you're entitled to; but you're gonna lose that bet.
Unfortunately, Charlie has been pretty much spot on in his info regarding Fermi, so maybe he didnt have any credibility beforehand, but he does have it now. Also, a Gentlemen's wager doesnt involve money or goods being exchanged, only your honour
Charlie admittedly claimed (exaggerated?) that Fermi would be impossible to manufacture and basically a dud in every possible respect. As it turns out it's no more a dud than the HD2900 was, and more mainstream GTX4xx parts should work pretty well. The 2900 was more of a dud than the GTX480 in the sense that it ran much hotter, was noisy and also performed miserably. The GTX470/480 are at least (marginally) faster than the competition. I'm all for facts, but if they get wrapped into hype and exaggerated claims, then it leaves me with a really bad taste. Charlie keeps triggering my 'oversensationalized hype'-filter, regardless of how much of the article may be true. That's just bad reporting.
yeah he's kind of out of control.. he had me wait on the ati flop when the g80 released.. and then called it a 'diamond in the rough' XD more like hot brick that got owned he was right on a few things about fermi though.. needs a die shrink
Yeah I read somewhere that a die shrink was on the cards a 32nm I think end of this year dont quote me on it I cant remember where I read that there's been sooo much written about femi , If I find it I'll post it.
Don't mean to seem like a poor sport, but that's what my impression of a gentleman's wager is as well. That said, it will certainly be a definitive answer to this little 'duel' and I'll gladly put my 'honour' on ATi. Though I have to ask, does the Steam survey count the total number of each card in its user's computers? Or does it group users as "GTX4xx user" or "HD 5xxx user" and total those? It would be a shame for people like Pete J to not be represented in their fullest. Also, to prevent debate should the results depend on it, just what are we counting? is pretty self explanatory, but is a little different. Not only does that exclude the bet of more DX11 hardware in general, but it also adds the 5830 to the bet of there being more GTX470/480 than 5850/5870 since it is still "58XX series". I also have to ask, what about the 5970? It's not strictly a "58XX series" card, but is just a 5870 X2 with a different naming convention and is theoretically the same as a user with 2x5870 in Crossfire, except with the added benefit for you of counting as one point for ATi rather than two. Also, it is often purchased in a situation where two HD5870 would be used instead and would have otherwise been counted. It seems like we could set up multiple metrics and see if it's a total shut out for one team or if it's shaken up a bit. I propose, should the system of measurement (Steam survey, unless a more accurate/detailed source can be used) allow: -Comparison of total DX11 hardware used (unless a record of sales can be used). This will act as an overview of each company's overall success this "round". -Comparison of numbers of HD5850, HD5870 and HD5970 versus numbers of GTX470 and GTX480 used (unless a record of sales can be used). HD5970 included for reasons stated above. This will act as a demonstration of which wins in the coveted enthusiast market. A definitive winner will be declared should both comparisons favor the same company, with an agreement that both are strong competitors in their own right should the results be mixed. Is this agreeable? I have to say though, aside from just losing it will really shock me if Nvidia wins. With 55.55% of the more enthusiast based crowd of Bit-tech saying no, 35.65% going with neither party's new line-ups, 8.8% voting Nvidia and only 4.17% with plans to buy now it's not exactly pretty numbers. Not to mention that due to only having two cards out at the moment the enthusiast market is pretty much Nvidia's only market. Release of a GTX460 might just shake things up but who knows. It'll be something to see.
the steam survey will be biased anyway. i don't know about you guys, but it seems to me there are a ton of nvidia fanboys on there lol...ive actually converted a few..
I wouldn't know, it is optional though right? I think I've declined a few before. Do you know any other way of determining sales? And I really would prefer sales because that was the original bet and doesn't have to worry about the various factors that come into play when purchase becomes use. A thought that's occuring to me at the moment is getting in touch with various etailers and asking them what their sales are, but I question how willing they would be to gather and part with that information.
yeah, same here, i always decline it...... you can always PM sales manager in forums such as OCuk, Aria and Novatech
I feel I need to add my 2 pence to this discussion again!! I have always been a nvidia fan due to them normally having a little more ooomph than the ATI cards and normally very good drivers, however I must admit that I was holding out for Fermi as I needed to upgrade from my 9800 gx2 but a month before the details emerged fer Fermi I gave in waiting and purchased an XFX 5870. Having had the card for a month or so I must say that i am now converted to the red site and am so happy that Fermi wasnt as good as all the Nvidia boys were expecting! I am so happy with the performance, temperature of the 5870 I am thinking of upgrading to an i7 920 system and getting hold of another 5870 for a bit of crossfire!!!! God I soooo enjoy Battlefield at max settings without warming up my house!!
GF100 was from the start meant to be manufactured on a 28 nm node. 40 nm is merely a stepping stone and should have been fine if TSMC didn't have all those misaligned lithography machines running, churning out failed die after failed die. Yes, nVidia could have done more to work around this, but in the end it was TSMC who screwed up first. 28 nm should fix any outstanding issues with GF100, however.
I'd say that I'd take the wager, however under the condition that there were more accurate ways to gauge GPU sales. Wonder if Nvidia and AMD ever would release such information?
Sloth I accept the terms you outline and think that's a pretty reasonable bet. I'm spotting you half a year of sales, you're betting against current marketshare. Let's use the Steam survey as you suggested. Note: I just unplugged three of my five 120mm case fans and gamed half an hour at UT3 with the sound off. I'm here to tell you the claims of GTX480 noise are overblown. I have no doubts it's likely louder than a 5870, and those heat pipes were indeed burning hot, but I kept waiting for the "horrible noise" some speak of. You can hear the thing, it was louder than my two remaining 120s and the CoolerMaster V8 on the CPU. However, it just sounds like whirring fan. There's no high pitched whine, no hair dryer sound like the FX5800 Ultra I had back in the day. If ATi made every card this loud, you'll never see me mention it. It's just not a big deal.
I thought you suggested that? And also - his post detailed a lot of concerns about using it which you haven't responded to.
I play with all the graphics cards on the market on a weekly basis. The GTX 480 is LOUD, much more so than the HD 5870 and HD 5850, and a little worse than the HD 5970 (although not by much). We said the same of the HD 5970 though - "wtfbbq, it's crazy noisy." It's a moot point if you use decent headphones ofc but for those who use speakers you WILL notice the difference if the rest of your system is fairly quiet.
It's not a huge deal. Doesn't mean that research on sales can't be done on the side. In fact, it might reveal some interesting surprises to have both. If ATI sells 10 cards, Nvidia sells 5 cards and then Steam survey says that 5 users are ATI and 5 are Nvidia then we can determine that 5 of the ATI cards sold were likely replaced by Nvidia's. Baz, might BT have any info on sales or way of gathering such data for jouranlistic purposes?
Well, my other rig is GTX295 SLi, is it louder than that? Before that I was using GTX280 SLi in one box and GTX260C216 in the other box, doesn't seem louder than those. And of course I had 9800GTX+ SLi and 9800GX2 SLi and 8800GTX 3way SLi before that, and the 3 way replaced 7950GX2 Quad Sli, which replaced 7800GTX Sli. Point being, there's a class of gamers to whom the GTX480 seems reasonable, even quiet. If perfomance is your primary concern, you're usually accustomed to some fan noise. I'd guess that I would think the 5970X2 is totally reasonable on the noise front as well, and if ATi wants to send me one I'll put this to the test.
It just dawned on me - are there any DX11 titles in development now? I can't think of anything. At least when DX10 came out there were games on the horizon, but now that Metro 2033 is out, I can't think of anything else.
